X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Faster and Furious: Pitchers With Rising Velocity

Sam Chinitz evaluates starting pitchers who gained velocity with their fastballs in 2020 in order to project fantasy baseball value for the 2021 MLB season.

The shortened 2020 season resulted in some small sample size related caveats surrounding analysis heading into 2021, but fastball velocity is largely immune from that issue. Fastball velocity is extremely quick to stabilize, and even a few pitches can provide fantasy managers with a reasonably clear understanding of a pitcher’s velocity.

Further supporting that notion is the fact that fastball velocity is remarkably sticky. Even without any pitch count qualifier, the R^2 of one year’s velocity to the next is a high 0.83. 

That’s not to say that the analysis in this article doesn’t require any small sample size caveats. Metrics to evaluate fastball performance like xwOBA and swinging-strike rate require more than a few pitches to stabilize, and fantasy managers should consider that caveat when looking at changes in fastball velocity. 

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Methodology

Increased fastball velocity is an improvement in a vacuum, but it doesn’t always translate to improvements in results. To that end, the relationships between changes in fastball velocity and changes in a fastball’s xwOBA and swinging-strike rates were weak among the 286 pitchers sampled in 2020, though the relationship between velocity changes and swinging-strike rate changes was stronger.

That’s not a totally unexpected result given that velocity is only one factor that influences a pitch’s success (pitch location, movement, and arsenal-related factors like pitch sequencing and tunneling likely also influence performance), but it is somewhat surprising. With that in mind, I’ll focus specifically on pitchers who both saw their velocity and performance improve.

 

Biggest Gainers In Fastball Velocity In 2020

Below is a list of the 15 pitchers with the biggest gaps between their 2019 and 2020 fastball velocities. The table also includes the difference between each pitcher’s fastball’s 2019 and 2020 xwOBAs and swinging-strike rates. 

Name Velocity Difference xwOBA Difference SwStr% Difference
Keynan Middleton 3 -0.188 1.53%
Erik Swanson 2.9 0.062 1.17%
Drew Smyly* 2.6 -0.048 1.71%
Yusei Kikuchi* 2.5 -0.073 5.87%
Brad Boxberger* 2.5 -0.026 -0.93%
Phil Maton 2.5 -0.116 11.25%
John Means* 2.1 -0.141 5.84%
Paul Fry 2.1 -0.083 -1.88%
Josh Staumont 2.1 -0.102 10.33%
Kevin Ginkel 2 -0.004 0.53%
Sean Reid-Foley 1.9 -0.168 2.84%
Jordan Romano 1.9 -0.298 9.96%
Yu Darvish 1.8 -0.249 6.37%
Burch Smith 1.8 -0.154 2.24%

The players with asterisks next to their names have been expanded on below. As mentioned above I’ve focused primarily on pitchers who paired their velocity increase with improved results, although the choice of which pitchers to focus on was generally subjective.

 

Most Interesting Fastball Velocity Risers

Drew Smyly

Smyly’s fastball packed some extra heat in 2020 with career highs in average and max exit velocities, but the pitch wasn’t the primary driver of his impressive 38% strikeout rate nor his strong .287 xwOBA. Although Smyly’s fastball’s .360 xwOBA in 2020 was a significant improvement over its poor .408 mark from 2019, the pitch had posted an xwOBA lower than .360 in each of Smyly’s two full seasons before 2019.

Smyly’s success in 2020 can largely be traced back to his curveball instead, which led his arsenal in xwOBA and swinging-strike rate while increasing its usage rate to 36%. It’s still encouraging to see Smyly’s increased velocity, and if he’s able to maintain that elevated velocity then Smyly may see even greater improvements in 2021, but it’s important to note that Smyly’s more powerful fastball was not the primary driver of his success in 2020, and fantasy managers should keep that in mind.

Yusei Kikuchi

Kikuchi looked like a new pitcher in 2020 with his FIP dropping from 5.71 in his rookie year to 3.30 last season, and an improved fastball played a significant role in that improvement. Kikuchi’s fastball was a leading contributor to his elevated swinging-strike rate with the pitch seeing its swinging-strike rate jump nearly six points from 2019 to 2020, though velocity was likely not the only factor leading to the pitch’s success.

In addition to the pitch’s 2.5 mph velocity increase, Kikuchi’s fastball got an additional two inches of rise in 2020, and the 29-year-old would likely be particularly prone to benefit from elevating the pitch more frequently in 2021 as a result -- at least from a swinging-strike perspective. Kikuchi’s fastball improved its contact quality as well, with the pitch’s xwOBAcon dropping from .407 in 2019 to .366 last season, although that’s slightly less intriguing given that pitchers tend to have less control over contact quality compared to their swinging-strike rates. 

It’s worth noting that the structure of the 2020 season was likely especially beneficial for Kikuchi, who struggled to pitch through the length of the full 162 game season during his rookie season. Seattle’s adoption of a six-man rotation also provided Kikuchi with more rest between starts (closer to what the pitcher was used to in Japan), likely helping him maintain his elevated velocity. Still, the development of Kikuchi’s fastball in 2020 was extremely encouraging, and fantasy managers should keep that in mind heading into 2021 drafts.

John Means

Means is one of my favorite buy-low candidates for next season, and the 27-year-old’s improved fastball doesn’t hurt. Means saw his fastball jump just over two mph from 2019 last season, and a release point closer to home plate resulted in a more than three mph increase in the pitch’s perceived velocity.

Means saw his fastball results improve significantly as well with a near six-point jump in swinging-strike rate and a 141 point drop in xwOBA. Home runs were a problem for Means’ fastball as the pitch allowed five home runs, but only one of those homers came at a ballpark other than the homer-friendly Camden Yards and Sahlen Field (Buffalo), and Means’ 1.086 xwOBA on those five home runs was relatively low. Camden Yards isn’t going anywhere, but Means’ fastball’s surface-level results should improve in 2021, and fantasy managers should target the pitcher in drafts as a result.

Yu Darvish

Darvish’s fastball saw its usage rate drop to a career-low 15% in 2020, but the pitch was as effective ever with a career-high 96 mph average velocity and elite metrics across the board. It’s hard to overstate just how good Darvish’s fastball was in 2020; the pitch posted a sparkling .146 xwOBA that ranked third among fastballs (min. 25 PA) in 2020 along with a 19% swinging-strike that represents the second-best full-season mark from a starting pitcher since at least the start of the 2017 season.

That elevated swinging-strike rate didn’t show up in Darvish’s strikeout rate (which mirrored his 2019 mark at 31.3%), but it did help Darvish pitch in pitcher’s counts for a career-high 35% of his pitches*, contributing to his overall effectiveness. It’s hard to expect Darvish’s fastball to be so dominant again in 2021, but the 34-year-old should manage to carry over at least some of the improvements, and that should have fantasy managers excited heading into 2021.

Brad Boxberger

Boxberger didn’t see his performance improve as much as some of the other pitchers on the list, but his 2.5 mph increase in average fastball velocity is notable. Injuries (and possibly age) pushed Boxberger’s average fastball velocity down in each of the five seasons leading up to 2020, and his 92.5 mph average velocity in 2020 was his highest mark since 2016.

That Boxberger made it through the entire season with a velocity rebound and no major injuries bodes well for his value in 2021. Boxberger is an intriguing deep-league option for fantasy managers as a result, and the 32-year-old may be worth a flier in later rounds depending on his likely role in 2021.

*Darvish led off with a fastball in only 15% of his plate appearances this season, but the pitch’s dominance no doubt played a role in his ability to get ahead and stay ahead in counts.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More 2021 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Trey Yesavage

Sets Franchise Strikeout Record On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
Willson Contreras

Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
Rob Font

Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
Jared Gordon

Suffers Brutal TKO Loss At Noche UFC 3
Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dealing with Wrist Injury
Dustin Stoltzfus

Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
Kelvin Gastelum

Gets Back In The Win Column
Diego Ferreira

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote Bryce Eldridge
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Progressing in Recovery
Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Emil Heineman

Aiming to Take the "Next Step" This Season
Braeden Cootes

Good to Go for Camp
Ivan Fedotov

Blue Jackets Acquire Ivan Fedotov From Flyers
Aaron Jones Sr.

Injures Hamstring During Sunday Night Football
Darren Waller

Not Expected to Play in Week 3
Garrett Crochet

Punches Out 12 in Win
Cole Ragans

to Return on Wednesday
Jameson Williams

Records Long Touchdown in Week 2, Still Limited to Downfield Role?
George Kirby

Strikes Out 14 in Win
Jayden Daniels

Considered "Day-to-Day" with Knee Injury
Carlos Estévez

Carlos Estevez Exits with Back Tightness
Jonathan Taylor

Tops 200 Yards From Scrimmage in Week 2 Win
Joe Burrow

Could Miss Three Months if he Requires Toe Surgery
Davante Adams

Headlines Rams Receiving Corps Sunday
Wan'Dale Robinson

Explodes for 142 Yards, Touchdown in Overtime Thriller
Joe Flacco

Browns Not Considering Benching Joe Flacco After Week 2
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
Luis Arraez

Takes a Seat on Sunday With Head Injury
Adolis García

Adolis Garcia Activated, Starting on Sunday
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
Bryan Woo

Records Career-High 13 Strikeouts
Max Muncy

Exits Early on Saturday
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Salvador Perez

Reaches 300 Home Runs, 1,000 RBI
Jose Altuve

Exits Early With Foot Discomfort
Trey Yesavage

Heading to Big Leagues
Will Smith

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
Tarik Skubal

Avoids Serious Injury, Expected to Make Next Start
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
Tanner Bibee

Fans 10 in Two-Hit Shutout
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Malcolm Brogdon

Heading to Knicks on One-Year Deal
CFB

David Sanders Jr. Won't Play Against Georgia
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks
CFB

Dylan Edwards Slated to Return on Friday
Adam Lowry

Aims for Early-Season Return
CFB

Ryan Williams Expected to Play Against Wisconsin
CFB

Billy Edwards Jr. Unlikely to Play on Saturday
P.J. Washington

Officially Signs Contract Extension
CFB

David Sanders Jr. Questionable to Make Debut Against Georgia
Lauri Markkanen

Big at Both Ends as Finland Books Place in EuroBasket Semis
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Notches 39 Points in Losing Effort
NBA

Cam Reddish Expected to Move to Europe
NBA

Trey Lyles Joins Real Madrid
Charles Bassey

Signs Exhibit 10 Deal With Hawks
Sacramento Kings

Terence Davis Waived by Kings
Matthew Knies

Ready for Bigger Role With Maple Leafs
Jack Eichel

Unbothered by Lack of Extension
Sidney Crosby

Not Thinking About Leaving Pittsburgh
SJ

Michael Misa Signs Entry-Level Contract With Sharks
Rutger McGroarty

Nursing an Injury
Cameron Champ

the Ultimate Wild Card at Procore
Cameron Young

Looks to Extend Momentum in Napa
Davis Thompson

Searching for a Spark at Procore
Sahith Theegala

Looking to Reignite Form at Procore
Mackenzie Hughes

Aims for Another Strong Showing at Procore
Luke Clanton

Brings Ball-Striking Upside to Napa
Seamus Power

Looking to Overcome Poor Course History at Procore
Joe Highsmith

Hoping to Find Form in Napa
Kristaps Porzingis

Reportedly Still Not Completely Healthy
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Reportedly on the Trade Block
Andre Drummond

Future in Philadelphia in Doubt
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Helps Greece Reach Semis at EuroBasket
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Posts Historic Triple-Double

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP