One Tweak Away: Pitchers That Could Break Out in 2022

Jon Anderson looks at starting pitchers who could break out in 2022 fantasy baseball with improvements to their walk rate.

Yu Darvish and Lucas Giolito in 2019, Robbie Ray and Shohei Ohtani in 2021. These are examples of pitchers that had struggled with their command for most of their careers, but then suddenly improved and became fantasy aces overnight.

Walk rates are one of the most important things to look for when evaluating fantasy pitchers. It is very tough to be a fantasy (or real life) ace with a high walk rate (namely a walk rate above 9%). Plenty of pitchers have the "stuff" to be a fantasy ace, but just not the control of their pitches.

In this post, we'll highlight a few names that fit this category. We're talking about pitchers that have shown great stuff but have been held back by lack of command and free passes. These are candidates for sudden boosts to stardom if they throw more and better strikes in 2022. Let's get into it.

Blake Snell, San Diego Padres

Alright, not the best name to start with. We have already seen Snell do this once in his career. Here's what it's looked like since his career began.

Snell's biggest problem has been health, but the walk rates have been anything but good to boot. You can see what he was capable of in 2018 when he had his command and health go together, but things really got worse in 2021. He once again posted an elite 12.9% SwStr% and a 30.9% K%, often making batters look silly at the plate - but the command was too inconsistent to get him there.

At the age of 29, it's not too late for Snell to put a reasonable walk rate up over a full season and post another stellar fantasy season, keep an eye on him early this year.

Triston McKenzie, Cleveland Guardians

The righty finished with a strong 27.5% K% in 2021, but the walk rate kept him shy of fantasy greatness way up there at 11.7% (league average is about 8.5%). That pushed his WHIP upwards to 1.18 and kept him away from being a reliable fantasy starter.

In August, however, he was one of the best. Check it out.

Everything was working for McKenzie in his 28 innings in August, and the walk rate was one of the main drivers. He posted a completely insane 2.0% walk rate and everything followed beautifully, as you can see. A 2% walk rate over any significant stress is somewhat a fluke, that is just not a sustainable number, but you can see what a big difference the lower walk rate can have on your other numbers.

McKenzie's stuff is good enough to be a very strong fantasy starter, he just needs to reduce the walks. If that happens in 2022, look out!

Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox

I think it's fair to call 2021 a "breakout" season for Cease already as he took a major step forward from what we had seen prior. However, his final season numbers of a 3.91 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP leave quite a bit to be desired for fantasy purposes. The encouraging part was the hugely improved 31.9% K% and 14.8% SwStr%. These were two of the better numbers in the game, and they say a lot about his potential.

The one thing he continued to struggle with was the walks. He posted a 9.6% walk rate, which is something you can stomach, but it is still pretty prohibitive. Cease's stuff is legitimate, and if he can bring that walk rate under 8% in 2022, he could really take the step into fantasy greatness.

Cristian Javier, Houston Astros

Javier spent most of his 2021 campaign in the bullpen, but there should be some more rotation opportunities for him in 2021 with Lance McCullers Jr. banged up and Zack Greinke departing. In his 101.1 innings of work, he posted a crazy high 13.1% SwStr% and a great 30.7% K%. He was very hard to hit.

The problem was that he had one of the league's worst walk rates at 12.5% (tied for third-worst in the league for pitchers with 100+ innings, to be exact). This guy is very, very young (24-years-old) and has flashed major signs of greatness so far. I think he's absolutely a guy that can simply start intentionally throwing more strikes and benefit massively because of it.

Yusei Kikuchi, Toronto Blue Jays

This guy has been tough to get a finger on in his young career, but 2021 was his best year yet. He brought his strikeout rate up to a career-best 24.5% but struggled with the walk posting a 9.3% walk rate after displaying a 6.9% mark in his rookie year in 2019.

What was most encouraging about Kikuchi's season was the high 12.5% SwStr%. This was way above his 2019 mark of 8.8%, and along with the high ground-ball rate, it gives me some hope for his future - especially now with his new team. He will have to make a bigger improvement in command and walks than the rest of these guys given his lack of wipeout stuff, but I really think Kikuchi will post a very nice fantasy year this year if he can make any significant improvement on the walks.

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