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John Flanigan breaks down three starting pitchers who had career years during the 2021 fantasy baseball season.
Each year in baseball, there are those pitchers who somehow sneak their way into Cy Young contention. Just one or two little tweaks could make all the difference and lead to a breakout year.
From the aging veterans to the developing youngsters, there’s always a handful of breakthrough stories on the mound. We saw that yet again this past season with an unexpected southpaw taking home the American League Cy Young, a youngster breaking out in his return from the KBO, and of course, a wily veteran showing them all how it’s done one last time.
Let’s take a closer look at these three career years.
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Adam Wainwright - St. Louis Cardinals
We’ll start with the ageless wonder, Adam Wainwright, who continued to get it done out there for the St. Louis Cardinals this past season. Wainwright was able to build off another strong performance during the pandemic shortened campaign.
Even as the second-oldest pitcher in baseball at 39-years old, Wainwright finished seventh in Cy Young voting and 20th in MVP voting. He was second in the league with 17 wins and posted a 3.05 ERA, which was his lowest mark since 2014.
Wainwright also reached the 200 innings plateau for the first time since that season and led the league with three complete games. He struck out 174 batters and posted a 1.05 WHIP and 3.66 FIP, which was the third-lowest in baseball.
Wainwright was back in his dominant form all season long, but he really shined during the second half. He went 10-2 over 15 starts and pitched to a 2.50 ERA and 0.95 WHIP while striking out 75 batters.
Wainwright’s walk rate (6%) was under his career average and finished in the 83rd percentile in baseball. He allowed just 21 home runs on the season and saw both his hard hit and barrel percentages decrease.
Wainwright’s famous curveball remained his go-to pitch, and it generated a 26.8% whiff rate. The average spin rate on that curve continued to trend upward, all the way to 2839 RPM, which was good enough to finish 39th in baseball (90th percentile).
Waino has already said that he’ll almost certainly hang up the spikes after this season, giving it one last run with battery-mate Yadier Molina behind the dish. We’ll see if he can build off this revitalization and finish his 16-year career on a high note.
Robbie Ray - Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays acquired Robbie Ray and cash from the Arizona Diamondbacks at the 2020 trading deadline in exchange for left-hander Travis Bergen. Little did they know, this was going to prove to be a massive steal.
At the time, Ray was struggling to the tune of a 7.84 ERA and 2.00 WHIP over seven starts. While his struggles continued in a Jays uniform, Ray showed some signs of improvement and finished the year strong. That was just the beginning of a tremendous turnaround.
This past season, the veteran left-hander looked like a completely new pitcher out there. Ray took home his first-career Cy Young award and pitched well enough to finish 15th in American League MVP voting.
Ray led the league with a 2.84 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 248 strikeouts, a 154 ERA+, 32 starts made, and a total of 193.1 innings pitched. He also finished ninth in all of baseball with a 6.7 WAR and posted his best strikeout rate since 2017 (32.1%).
Ray’s best pitch was his fastball, which averaged about 95 MPH, the sixth hardest amongst southpaws. However, he also leaned on his devastating curveball and slider which generated a combined 48.8% whiff rate.
One of the biggest differences for Ray this past season was a career-low 6.7 walk rate, which finished in the 73rd percentile. This was a significant decrease from last year when he posted a career-high 17.9% rate and finished in the second percentile in all of baseball.
Ray was rewarded for his breakout year this offseason, landing a five-year, $115 million deal with the Seattle Mariners. With his renewed command and confidence, Ray will look to lead the way for an up-and-coming Mariners team awfully close to contention.
Chris Flexen - Seattle Mariners
Sticking with the Seattle Mariners theme, I have to mention the year Chris ‘Big Baby’ Flexen had in his return to the majors from the Doosan Bears in the KBO.
The New York Mets drafted Flexen in the 14th round of the 2012 MLB draft. The right-hander was ranked as high as the ninth-best prospect in the organization. Flexen had a strong minor league career as a starter but never stuck in the Big Apple.
He was often bounced between the big league level and the minors, and never really received a legitimate shot in the starting rotation. Over 27 appearances with the club, he pitched to a brutal 8.07 ERA and 2.13 WHIP.
Flexen was designated for assignment during the 2020 offseason, and quickly signed with the Bears. He spent the whole season there and had a bit of a breakthrough, posting a 3.01 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 132 strikeouts over 21 outings.
The Mariners decided to give him a shot on a two-year deal this past season, and it certainly paid off very quickly. Flexen turned out to be one of the better deals signed that offseason, as he jumped into their rotation at the beginning of the year and never looked back.
Flexen made 31 starts and finished in the top-10 in the American League in the following categories; ERA (3.61), wins (14), ERA+ (115), FIP (3.89), and innings pitched (179.2).
He also finished in the top-10 in walks per nine innings (2.0) and his career-low 5.4% walk rate was good enough to finish in the 89th percentile. Additionally, Flexen was able to reach six or more innings pitched in 17 of his 31 starts.
While Flexen isn’t going to strike out the world, he was a very solid innings eater and middle-of-the-rotation arm for the Mariners last season. The big right-hander will look to carry that success over into the 2022 season.
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