Spencer Aguiar's Top One And Done Picks To Consider - Sanderson Farms Championship

September 28, 2022

Spencer Aguiar dives into his most intriguing One and Done selections for the Sanderson Farms Championship. Here are some under-the-radar plays and picks for you to consider at this week's event.

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Here at RotoBaller, we are constantly searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, I am proud to announce my weekly PGA "One and Done" column, where I will look through some of my favorite potential targets on the board.

As has always been the case, you will be able to find the "staff picks" when we start the RotoBaller contest back up in 2023, but I am going to use this offseason to deep-dive into the boards for anyone that might be playing in a league that begins at the Fortinet Championship.

It remains to be seen if I will restart the tracking once the official year starts back up at the Sony Open since we might land in an awkward situation of two contests going on at once, but remember, any pick I make will be out of consideration moving forward. I'll always try to allude to options I no longer have at my disposal, but my top five list will be golfers I have not played as of that moment.

Let's start from #5 and work our way down to my best pick for the event.

One and Done Selections - Sanderson Farms Championship

#5 - Taylor Montgomery

If comparing Taylor Montgomery to other players on this list, I probably would like him more than some of these options if we could select golfers again. Go figure, mulligans working in the game of non-professional golf contests, but the fact that we only get one shot on the UNLV product makes me think that waiting and figuring out what he is as a player might be the better route in this particular situation.

I am more inclined to use Montgomery than my third choice on this list in DFS builds, and the same thought process can be said about an outright wager, but it is sometimes better to wait until Christmas morning to open your presents. Let's save Montgomery for later in the year, although he cracks the top five because I do believe in his potential upside.

#4 - Davis Riley

I love the win equity Davis Riley has on my model, but I'm not fond of the form and potential usage across the board. Riley's popularity has been skyrocketing for the past 24 hours in all game types, and we have now reached a point where I believe the American might potentially go off as the most popular selection of the week for anything that mimics a One and Done contest.

I see Riley as the most popular bet in the outright market, and the weighted proximity for the track places him 39 spots better than his baseline projection. All of that sounds good on the surface, but the form of MC, 54th, 31st, 13th, MC, MC and 64th over the last 10 weeks is too up and down for a game type that is unforgiving to any and all mistakes.

#3 - Sahith Theegala

It probably is going to come as a bit of a shock to see Sahith Theegala inside my top five options after I have made minimal effort to discuss him this week at the Country Club of Jackson, but it is this sort of contest where I would consider taking a shot on Theegala's potential.

We likely won't see many OAD gamers go this route since the ownership on DFS sites looks reduced compared to his counterparts in the upper-echelon range, but the form is trending in the right direction, having produced three straight top 15 finishes.

Theegala's sixth-place grade on my model makes him a contrarian target to consider, although I am going to fall victim to what I just stated myself and will go in a different direction for my pick this week. You might want to consider bumping the American up a few notches to take advantage of that outside-of-the-box narrative, and it shouldn't hurt matters that he is quickly skyrocketing up the odds list and looks to be the second favorite at most notable books.

#2 - Dean Burmester

I can't tell you how badly I wanted to take Dean Burmester as my official choice, even though a few points made it counterintuitive, in my opinion. 

The reasons for selecting Burmester were simple:

1. The ownership percentages likely would make him one of the more contrarian selections on the board. 
2. His ball-striking acumen is brilliant for how it fits the venue. 
3. The Bermuda putting improvement boosts his upside if he continues to score on the par-fives. 

All of that should be viewed as a positive, but the counterarguments made it too challenging to overcome:

1. There are two golfers above him on my model, even if one is a name I wanted to save for later. 
2. The data is limited. If an option like Taylor Montgomery is negatively affected by his small sample size, it doesn't make sense to allow Burmester a pass. 
3. The win equity grades start shifting him in reverse at a higher rate than my eventual choice. Each golfer has that problem, but one had his go at a flatter percentage. 

#1 - J.T. Poston

You always want to play golfers who have some semblance of form in these contests, and there aren't too many names my model likes more than J.T. Poston when it comes to that factor. Even when I excluded the Tour Championship, an event he performed admirably at and finished inside the top two-thirds of participants, Poston still managed to grade third in this field when combining the last 10 weeks of tour action. The only two golfers to grade higher were Scott Stallings and Sam Burns, making it one of the many reasons Poston jumped up to number two on my model from an overall standpoint.

The 29-year-old probably isn't a golfer I am actively looking to use this year, which is good since I don't have a strong stance up top for any of these names, and the two top 11 finishes here over his past three attempts only heightens the intrigue since the course history is inside the top 30, the form is excellent and the statistical prowess places him fourth in this field. All of that leaves us with a golfer that is the second-highest ranked player on my board, and if I am not planning to use Sam Burns, who naturally is number one, it feels like a solid spot to play things safer in week two.

Official Selection: J.T. Poston

Running Total: $1,440,000

Follow along here on the OAD Spreadsheet!

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