Spencer Aguiar's First-Round Leader Picks for the Sanderson Farms Championship

Enjoy this article for free until the start of 2023!

We have a lot of exciting new concepts in store for everyone at RotoBaller over the upcoming months, so please stay tuned for updates as we get closer to the new year. Thanks again for all the support, and we look forward to continuing to provide our readers with top-notch statistical information for you to consider. 

Make sure to follow me on Twitter @Teeoffsports to get my updated picks as the tournament progresses, and if you don't have that as one of your social media platforms, here is a link for my betting card weekly. My free DFS column, which includes my top plays for the week and a list of options I will be fading, can be found here. And if you ever have any questions about a particular bet, player in the field or anything golf-related, be sure to contact me on Twitter.

 

First-Round Leader Options To Consider:

Seamus Power 55/1 (Bet365) 

One of the biggest movers in my model when comparing upside versus safety, Seamus Power is an ideal fit inside the first-round leader market to try and attack some of that potential as a cheap dart throw. Power's current form leaves a ton to be desired, missing two cuts and finishing 65th out of 67 golfers at the BMW Championship, but the high-end metrics set up nicely for the Country Club of Jackson.

My model ranks Power first at easy scoring courses over the past year, first in a recalculated par-four category to mimic this week's venue and first at the five critical holes this week, where 27% of daily chances account for nearly 60% of the meaningful totals towards a score.

Has the form turned around? I am not sure. But there isn't a better market in the space to take a cheap chance on the possibility of everything coming together.

 

Gary Woodland 65/1 (DraftKings) 

I don't necessarily trust Gary Woodland over four days, but when we look at his recent strokes gained data and try to incorporate how it fits into the Sanderson Farms, we see a golfer that has earned shots in all five critical categories over the last three tournaments but has failed to put more than two of those metrics together at once. To me, that means Woodland is still struggling to find everything at the same time, and the most natural way to use that information is to hope he does it in spurts, meaning a one-day sample size of dominance would be an excellent place to start.

Woodland's fourth-place grade in total driving and eight-spot increase in projected proximity when I run the data to highlight the Country Club of Jackson is encouraging, and while I don't know if he is explosive enough as a golfer to keep it going from start to finish, my model does like the Bermuda putting increase that he gets versus his baseline projection.

 

Dean Burmester 65/1 (DraftKings) 

You will notice Dean Burmester is the first negative trajectory upside player we have talked about so far, but my model was able to overlook some of the concerns regarding his explosiveness when we focused on how his first-round leader number still provided value at 65/1.

Even when I ran his watered-down version inside of my model, Burmester graded as a 50/1 golfer in this market, stemming from his ball-striking and par-five scoring outputs that ranked him inside the top 15 of the field. Like Woodland, the Bermuda putting splits did give us a 31-spot improvement in my projected creation of strokes gained data versus his baseline total, and the fact that he graded as a top five golfer when looking at the complete picture and not just a sprint on Thursday means an outright ticket is also a necessity for us to grab.

 

Alex Smalley 75/1 (Bet365) 

At this point, the Webb Simpson and Jason Day conversations that I have might be in place to mask the weekly wagers that I place on Alex Smalley. My model LOVES him on pretty much any course because of his pristine ball-striking acumen, and I have reasons to believe that his Bermuda putting might be able to enhance some of his par-five scoring - a category he sometimes underachieves at because of his short game.

Smalley's total driving and long iron play are too good for the par-five scoring to stay down forever, and whenever he fixes his short game and adds value in those areas, the sky is the limit for what he might be able to accomplish on tour. Smalley ranks 89th in putting on all surfaces but does jump to 44th on this exact Bermuda texture, giving us an opening for him to get hot for a day on Thursday.

 

Rory Sabbatini 110/1 (Bet365) 

One of the things I always note during these pieces is why I run my model towards mimicking a course above all else. We saw it last weekend at the Presidents Cup when a golfer like Kevin Kisner was incorrectly included on the USA team and forced to take on a course that was too long for his skills, and it is why certain players sometimes slip through the cracks at venues when the market doesn't adjust to their potential.

Sure, we have a ton of course history baked into totals that will shift prices, but not every golfer receives the same drift on similar information. Sabbatini is the second-ranked player in my model when looking directly at Ross-designs over the past 50 rounds, and the short game and recalculated scoring totals for all 18 holes will set up nicely for him to find success at a course he has recorded two top-20 finishes at during the last three attempts. While Sabbatini does get the more complex end of the draw by going off in the afternoon, the price is overly inflated at 110/1.

 

Vincent Whaley 125/1 (Bet365) 

I am surprised we haven't gotten better results from Vincent Whaley at the Country Club of Jackson in the past. Three made cuts in the last three years isn't anything to scoff at from an outlook perspective, but the fact that he has failed to record a top 40 finish does come as a surprise when I look into how he fits the track.

Whaley ranks 17th in my model when given easy scoring conditions, eighth on the five most accessible holes on the course and second in his Bermuda putting + par-five scoring combination. Whaley has a real shot at a longer price.

 

Joel Dahmen 130/1 (DraftKings) 

Joel Dahmen hasn't finished better than 69th-place during his last six starts on tour, which, contrary to popular belief, is not nice, but I will not let that stop me from taking a shot on him for a day at 130/1.

Dahmen's long-term stats place him inside the top 10 of the field in short-par/par-five scoring, and while this shouldn't be considered anything more than a shot in the dark, I like his pairing with J.T. Poston and Sepp Straka at 7:22 in the morning. Dahmen should get the greens at their most ideal settings, generating more birdie opportunities if he can stay accurate off the tee.

 

Official Card

	Odds	Risk	Win
Joel Dahmen	130	0.025	3.25
Seamus Power	55	0.06	3.3
Gary Woodland	65	0.05	3.25
Rory Sabbatini	110	0.025	2.75
Vincent Whaley	125	0.03	3.75
Alex Smalley	75	0.04	3
Dean Burmester	65	0.05	3.25

 

2022 Top Head-to-Head Record (11-5-0)

+6.96 Units Year-To-Date From Premium H2H Bets

Tournament	H2H Bet	Risk Units	W	L	T	TP	Percentage	Profit/Loss
		21.73	11	5	0	16	68.75%	6.96
BMW Championship	Taylor Pendrith -110 over J.T. Poston	1.44	1			1		1.31
Rocket Mortgage	Cameron Davis -120 over Kevin Kisner	1.44	1			1		1.2
Open Championship	Tommy Fleetwood -118 over Tyrrell Hatton	1.30	1			1		1.1
Travelers	Brendan Steele -115 over Denny McCarthy	1.45	1			1		1.26
U.S. Open	Aaron Wise -105 over Davis Riley	1.40	1			1		1.33
RBC Canadian Open	Aaron Rai -112 over Hank Lebioda	1.40	1			1		1.25
Memorial	Sungjae Im -136 over Davis Riley	1.36	1			1		1
PGA Championship	Chris Kirk -120 over Kevin Kisner	1.44	1			1		1.36
Byron Nelson	Patton Kizzire -110 over Kevin Kisner	1.40	1			1		1.27
RBC Heritage	Ian Poulter -110 over Cameron Young	1.30		1		1		-1.3
Valero	Keegan Bradley -110 over Jason Day	1.30	1			1		1.18
Valero	Sahith Theegala +102 over Ryan Palmer	1.30		1		1		-1.3
API	Sergio Garcia -110 over Tommy Fleetwood	1.30		1		1		-1.3
Honda Classic	Jhonattan Vegas -115 over Mito Periera	1.30		1		1		-1.3
Genesis	Cameron Smith -115 over Viktor Hovland	1.35		1		1		-1.35
Waste Management	Keegan Bradley +100 over Pat Perez	1.25	1			1		1.25

Year-To-Date Pre-Tournament Head-To-Head Results (43-25-3)

+14.64 Units Year-To-Date From Pre-Tournament H2H Bets

Tournament	H2H Bet	Risk Units	W	L	T	TP	Percentage	Profit/Loss
		80.10	43	25	3	68	63.24%	14.64
Fortinet Championship	Rickie Fowler -110 over Joel Dahmen	1.10	1			1		1
Fortinet Championship	Tom Hoge -120 over Chez Reavie	1.20	1			1		1
Fortinet Championship	Patrick Rodgers -120 over Brendon Todd	1.20		1		1		-1.2
Fortinet Championship	Gary Woodland -120 over Matt Kuchar	1.20		1		1		-1.2
Fortinet Championship	Brendan Steele -127 over Denny McCarthy	1.27		1		1		-1.27
Tour Championship	Billy Horschel -115 over Brian Harman	1.15			1			0
BMW Championship	Shane Lowry +100 over Max Homa	1.00	1			1		1
BMW Championship	Sungjae Im -120 over Collin Morikawa	1.20	1			1		1
BMW Championship	Emiliano Grillo -110 over Denny McCarthy	1.10	1			1		1
BMW Championship	Rory McIlroy -120 over Patrick Cantlay	1.20		1		1		-1.2
St. Jude	Will Zalatoris -115 over Cameron Young	1.15	1			1		1
St. Jude	Shane Lowry -120 over Tyrrell Hatton	1.20		1		1		-1.2
St. Jude	Scottie Scheffler -120 over Justin Thomas	1.20		1		1		-1.2
Wyndham Championship	Brian Harman -110 over Denny McCarthy	1.10	1			1		1
Rocket Mortgage	Adam Hadwin +100 over Denny McCarthy	1.00	1			1		1
Open Championship	Tony Finau -125 over Louis Oosthuizen	1.25	1			1		1
Open Championship	Tiger Woods +145 over Bryson DeChambeau	1.00		1		1		-1
Travelers	Aaron Wise -105 over Davis Riley	1.05		1		1		-1.05
U.S. Open	Aaron Wise -105 over Cameron Young	1.05	1			1		1
U.S. Open	Xander Schauffele -110 over Cameron Smith	1.10	1			1		1
U.S. Open	Daniel Berger -110 over Billy Horschel	1.10		1		1		-1.1
U.S. Open	Luke List -110 over K.H. Lee	1.10		1		1		-1.1
Memorial	Rickie Fowler -110 over Stewart Cink	1.10	1			1		1
Charles Schwab	Viktor Hovland -120 over Will Zalatoris	1.20	1			1		1
PGA Championship	Tommy Fleetwood -120 over Maverick McNealy	1.20	1			1		1
PGA Championship	Webb Simpson -110 over Marc Leishman	1.10	1			1		1
PGA Championship	Rory McIlroy -135 over Viktor Hovland	1.35	1			1		1
PGA Championship	Aaron Wise -110 over Jhonatthan Vegas	1.10	1			1		1
Byron Nelson	Charles Howell III -120 over Nick Taylor	1.20	1			1		1
Byron Nelson	Si Woo Kim -120 over Christian Bezuidenhout	1.20		1		1		-1.2
Wells Fargo	Cameron Davis -120 over Dylan Frittelli	1.20		1		1		-1.2
Mexico Open	Charles Howell +100 over Brendon Todd	1.00	1			1		1
Mexico Open	Anirban Lahiri -115 over Andrew Putnam	1.15	1			1		1
Mexico Open	Alex Smalley -115 over Greyson Sigg	1.15	1			1		1
Mexico Open	Patrick Rodgers -110 over David Lipsky	1.10		1		1		-1.1
RBC Heritage	Tommy Fleetwood +100 over Jason Kokrak	1.00	1			1		1
RBC Heritage	Tom Hoge -120 over Mito Pereira	1.20		1		1		-1.2
RBC Heritage	Charles Howell III -110 over Mackenzie Hughes	1.10	1			1		1
RBC Heritage	Erik Van Rooyen -110 over Dylan Frittelli	1.10	1			1		1
Masters	Rory Group Winner +330	0.35	1			1		1.16
Masters	Rory McIlroy -120 over Collin Morikawa	1.20	1			1		1
Masters	Cam Young -110 over Luke List	1.10		1		1		-1.1
Masters	Tommy Fleetwood -110 over Bubba Watson	1.10	1			1		1
Valero	Jordan Spieth -102 over Hideki Matsuyama	1.02	1			1		1
Valspar	Joel Dahmen -112 over CT Pan	1.12	1			1		1
Valspar	Jason Kokrak -118 over Gary Woodland	1.18		1		1		-1.18
Valspar	Alex Noren -120 over Jason Day	1.20	1			1		1
Valspar	Mito Periera -120 over Francesco Molianri	1.20	1			1		1
Valspar	Pat Perez -120 over Carlos Ortiz	1.20	1			1		1
Players	Daniel Berger -120 over Cameron Smith	1.20		1		1		-1.2
Players	Brendon Todd -115 over Troy Merritt	1.15		1		1		-1.15
Players	Paul Casey -110 over Gary Woodland	1.10	1			1		1
Players	Russell Henley -110 over Max Homa	1.10			1			0
API	Cam Young -120 over Tom Hoge	1.20	1			1		1
API	Sahith Theegala -110 over Andrew Putnam	1.10		1		1		-1.1
Honda Classic	Sepp Straka -127 over Dylan Frittelli	1.27	1			1		1
Genesis	Jordan Spieth -105 over Brooks Koepka	1.05	1			1		1
Genesis	Dustin Johnson -125 over Collin Morikawa	1.25		1		1		-1.25
Genesis	Rory McIlroy -115 over Collin Morikawa	1.15		1		1		-1.15
Genesis	Sahith Theegala -120 over Francesco Molinari	1.20	1			1		1
Waste Management	Luke List -115 over Tony Finau	1.15	1			1		1
Farmers Insurance	Talor Gooch -110 over Corey Conners	1.10	1			1		1
American Express	K.H. Lee -105 over Michael Thompson	1.05	1			1		1
American Express	Gary Woodland -115 over Cameron Champ	1.15			1			0
Sony	Billy Horschel +110 over Seamus Power	1.00		1		1		-1
Sony	Si Woo Kim +100 over Seamus Power	1.00		1		1		-1
Sentry	Patrick Cantlay -108 over Viktor Hovland	1.08	1			1		1
Sentry	Jon Rahm -127 over Viktor Hovland	1.27	1			1		1
Sentry	Justin Thomas -132 over Viktor Hovland	1.32	1			1		1
Sentry	Bryson DeChambeau -112 over Collin Morikawa	1.12		1		1		-1.12
Sentry	Jordan Spieth -105 over Hideki Matsuyama	1.05		1		1		-1.05

2022 In-Tournament Head-to-Head Record (65-37-10)

+24.13 Units Year-To-Date From Premium In-Tournament H2H Bets

Tournament	H2H Bet	Risk Units	W	L	T	TP	Percentage	Profit/Loss
		126.93	65	37	10	102	63.73%	24.13
Presidents Cup	Christiaan Bezuidenhout +100 over Kevin Kisner (R5)	1	1			1		1
Presidents Cup	Finau/Kisner -115 over Im/Munoz (R4)	1.15		1		1		-1.15
Presidents Cup	Davis/Scott +165 over Spieth/Thomas (R2)	0.8		1		1		-0.8
Presidents Cup	Day 1 Winner Team USA -195 (R1)	1.25	1			1		0.64
Fortinet Championship	Rickie Fowler -110 over Mackenzie Hughes (R4)	1.1	1			1		1
Fortinet Championship	Rickie Fowler -114 over Matthias Schwab (R3)	1.14	1			1		1
Fortinet Championship	Adam Svensson -105 over Zac Blair (R3)	1.05	1			1		1
Tour Championship	Sungjae Im -115 over Joaquin Niemann (R3)	1.15	1			1		1
Tour Championship	Tom Hoge -115 over Sepp Straka (R2)	1.15	1			1		1
Tour Championship	Aaron Wise -110 over Sahith Theegala (R1)	1.44	1			1		1.31
BMW Championship	Will Zalatoris -110 over Sam Burns (R3)	1.1		1		1		-1.1
BMW Championship	Russell Henley -110 over Tyrrell Hatton (R3)	1.1		1		1		-1.1
BMW Championship	Sungjae Im -110 over Sam Burns (R2)	1.1			1			0
BMW Championship	Taylor Pendrith -118 over Marc Leishman (R2)	1.18	1			1		1
BMW Championship	Brendan Steele -110 over Matt Kuchar (R1)	1.1		1		1		-1.1
St. Jude	Hayden Buckley -110 over Dylan Frittelli (R3)	1.1	1			1		1
St. Jude	Max Homa -120 over J.T. Poston (R2)	1.2	1			1		1
St. Jude	Scottier Scheffler -115 over Cameron Smith (R1)	1.15		1		1		-1.15
Wyndham	Sungjae Im -125 over Will Zalatoris (R2)	1.25		1		1		-1.25
Wyndham	Sungjae Im -115 over Will Zalatoris (R1)	1.15	1			1		1
Rocket Mortgage	Sam Ryder -110 over Zach Johnson (R3)	1.1		1		1		-1.1
Rocket Mortgage	Cameron Tringale -120 over Kevin Kisner (R2)	1.2	1			1		1
Rocket Mortgage	Cameron Tringale -105 over Kevin Kisner (R1)	1.05	1			1		1
3M Open	James Hahn -110 over Danny Willett (R4)	1.1	1			1		1
3M Open	Doug Ghim -115 over Brice Garnett (R3)	1.15	1			1		1
3M Open	Tom Hoge -120 over Dylan Frittelli (R2)	1.2	1			1		1
3M Open	Emiliano Grillo -110 over Cameron Champ (R1)	1.1	1			1		1
3M Open	Tom Hoge +105 over Dylan Frittelli (R1)	1	1			1		1.05
Scottish	Sungjae Im -110 over Ryan Fox (R2)	1.1		1		1		-1.1
Scottish	Sungjae Im -110 over Ryan Fox (R1)	1.1		1		1		-1.1
Travelers	Aaron Rai -110 over Maverick McNealy (R2)	1.1	1			1		1
Travelers	Aaron Rai -129 over Wyndham Clark (R1)	1.29		1		1		-1.29
U.S. Open	Scottie Scheffler -115 over Jon Rahm (R4)	1.15	1			1		1
U.S. Open	Hideki Matsuyama -115 over Billy Horschel (R2)	1.15	1			1		1
U.S. Open	Talor Gooch -120 over Kevin Na (R2)	1.2		1		1		-1.2
U.S. Open	Hideki Matsuyama -115 over Billy Horschel (R1)	1.15	1			1		1
RBC Canadian Open	Emiliano Grillo +115 over Brendon Todd (R4)	1		1		1		-1
RBC Canadian Open	Ryan Armour -120 over Matt Wallace (R3)	1.2	1			1		1
RBC Canadian Open	Tyler Duncan +100 over Robert Streb (R3)	1	1			1		1
RBC Canadian Open	Stephan Jaeger -115 over Rasmus Hojgaard (R2)	1.15		1		1		-1.15
RBC Canadian Open	Brice Garnett +100 over Matt Wallace (R2)	1		1		1		-1
Memorial	Charles Howell III -120 over Beau Hossler (R4)	1.2	1			1		1
Memorial	Corey Conners -+150 over Jon Rahm (R3)	1		1		1		-1
Memorial	Marc Leishman -105 over K.H. Lee (R1)	1.05		1		1		-1.05
Charles Schwab	Lucas Glover +100 over Denny McCarthy (R4)	1		1		1		-1
Charles Schwab	Lucas Glover -110 over Nick Taylor (R3)	1.1	1			1		1
Charles Schwab	Sam Burns -105 over Talor Gooch (R2)	1.05	1			1		1
Charles Schwab	Joel Dahmen -125 over Talor Moore (R2)	1.25	1			1		1
Charles Schwab	Davis Riley -120 over Denny McCarthy (R2)	1.2	1			1		1
PGA Championship	Kramer Hickok +145 over Francesco Molinari (R4)	1		1		1		-1
PGA Championship	Louis Oosthuizen +100 over Billy Horschel (R3)	1	1			1		1
Byron Nelson	Adam Scott -115 over Dylan Frittelli (R4)	1.15	1			1		1
Byron Nelson	Lanto Griffin -110 over Matthias Schwab (R3)	1.1	1			1		1
Byron Nelson	Adam Scott -115 over Davis Riley (R3)	1.15		1		1		-1.15
Byron Nelson	Alex Noren -110 over Christian Bezuidenhout (R3)	1.1		1		1		-1.1
Byron Nelson	Aaron Wise -125 over Ian Poulter (R2)	1.25			1			0
Byron Nelson	Sahith Theegala -110 over Taylor Moore (R1)	1.1			1			0
Wells Fargo	Kurt Kitayama -120 over Adam Schenk (R4)	1.2		1		1		-1.2
Wells Fargo	Austin Smotherman -120 over Kevin Chappell (R3)	1.2	1			1		1
Wells Fargo	Max Homa -115 over Jason Day (R2)	1.15	1			1		1
Wells Fargo	Brian Harman -105 over Troy Merritt (R2)	1.05	1			1		1
Wells Fargo	Lucas Glover -120 over Zach Johnson (R1)	1.2		1		1		-1.20
RBC Heritage	Tom Hoge -120 over Mackenzie Hughes (R2)	1.2	1			1		1.00
RBC Heritage	Alex Noren -115 over Ian Poulter (R2)	1.15		1		1		-1.15
RBC Heritage	J.J. Spaun -110 over Luke List (R1)	1.1	1			1		1.00
Masters	Tony Finau -110 over Sergio Garcia (R4)	1.1		1		1		-1.10
Masters	Robert McIntyre -125 over Lee Westwood (R3)	1.25		1		1		-1.25
Masters	Harry Higgs -105 over Hudson Swafford (R3)	1.05			1			0.00
Masters	Tyrrell Hatton +140 over Jon Rahm (R3)	1		1		1		-1.00
Masters	Rory McIlroy -120 over Brooks Koepka (R2)	1.2	1			1		1.00
Masters	Tyrrell Hatton -120 over Billy Horschel (R2)	1.2		1		1		-1.20
Masters	Patrick Reed -120 over Lee Westwood (R2)	1.2	1			1		1.00
Masters	Dustin Johnson -120 over Collin Morikawa (R1)	1.2	1			1		1.00
Valspar	Adam Svensson -115 over Grayson Sigg (R4)	1.2	1			1		1.00
Valspar	Sahith Theegala -115 over Brice Garnett (R3)	1.2	1			1		1.00
Valspar	Stewart Cink -110 over Brice Garnett (R2)	1.1	1			1		1.00
Valspar	Aaron Wise -105 over Mackenzie Hughes (R2)	1.1		1		1		-1.05
Valspar	Aaron Wise -105 over Mackenzie Hughes (R1)	1.1	1			1		1.00
Valspar	Brian Harman -110 over Bernd Wiesberger (R1)	1.1	1			1		1.00
API	Adam Schenk -125 over Stephan Jaeger (R3)	1.3		1		1		-1.25
API	Maverick McNealy -110 over Tommy Fleetwood (R2)	1.1		1		1		-1.10
API	Cam Young -120 over Taylor Pendrith (R1)	1.2	1			1		1.00
API	Gary Woodland -110 over K.H. Lee (R1)	1.1			1			0.00
API	Ian Poulter -120 over Andrew Putnam (R1)	1.2	1			1		1.00
Honda Classic	Nick Taylor -120 over Kevin Tway (R2)	1.2	1			1		1.00
Honda Classic	Sepp Straka -115 over Vincent Whaley (R1)	1.2	1			1		1.00
Genesis	Rickie Fowler -115 over Harry Higgs (R4)	1.2			1			0.00
Genesis	Carlos Ortiz -115 over Francesco Molinari (R3)	1.2	1			1		1.00
Genesis	Adam Hadwin -120 over Scott Stallings (R2)	1.2		1		1		-1.20
Genesis	Paul Casey -110 over Abraham Ancer (R1)	1.1	1			1		1.00
Genesis	Russell Henley -110 over Corey Conners (R1)	1.1			1			0.00
Waste Management	Luke List -120 over Francesco Molinari (R4)	1.2		1		1		-1.20
Waste Management	Max Homa -115 over Kevin Kisner (R3)	1.2	1			1		1.00
Waste Management	Brooks Koepka -120 over Gary Woodland (R2)	1.2	1			1		1.00
Waste Management	Matthew Fitzpatrick -120 over Aaron Wise (R1)	1.2	1			1		1.00
Pebble Beach	Russell Knox -115 over Brendon Todd (R2)	1.2			1			0.00
Pebble Beach	Jason Day -110 over Matthew Fitzpatrick (R1)	1.1	1			1		1.00
Farmers Insurance	Joaquin Niemann -110 over Billy Horschel (R3)	1.1		1		1		-1.10
Farmers Insurance	Matt Jones -110 over Hudson Swafford (R1)	1.1		1		1		-1.10
Sony	Keegan Bradley -120 over Hayden Buckley (R4)	1.2			1			0.00
Sony	Adam Svensson +165 over Seamus Power (R4)	0.8		1		1		-0.80
Sony	Hayden Buckley -118 over Vincent Whaley (R3)	1.2	1			1		1.00
Sony	Corey Conners -125 over Seamus Power (R2)	1.3	1			1		1.00
Sony	Keegan Bradley -110 over Harry Higgs (R2)	1.1	1			1		1.00
Sony	Michael Thompson +112 over Erik Van Rooyen (R1)	1.0	1			1		1.12
Sony	Keegan Bradley -115 over Harry Higgs (R1)	1.0			1			0.00
Sentry	Abraham Ancer -145 over Branden Grace (R4)	1.5		1		1		-1.45
Sentry	Sungjae Im -115 over Hideki Matsuyama (R3)	1.2	1			1		1.00
Sentry	Marc Leishman -130 over Lucas Herbert (R2)	1.3	1			1		1.00
Sentry	Lucas Herbert -115 over Matt Jones (R1)	1.2	1			1		1.00
Sentry	Patrick Cantlay -135 over Harris English (R1)	1.4	1			1		1.00
Sentry	Brooks Koepka +125 over Viktor Hovland (R1)	1.0	1			1		1.25

2022 Bets That Have Finished Inside The Top-10

Player	Event	Odds	Finish Position
Sam Burns	Charles Schwab	90	1
Joaquin Niemann	Genesis Invitational	75	1
Scottie Scheffler	Waste Management	30	1
Will Zalatoris	St. Jude	28	1
Viktor Hovland	Arnold Palmer	18	2
Rory McIlroy	Masters	22	2
Tony Finau	Mexico Open	25	2
Jordan Spieth	Pebble Beach	22	2
Matt Jones	Valero	130	2
Tony Finau	RBC Canadian Open	30	2
Sungjae Im	3M Open	25	2
Sungjae Im	Tour Championship	22	2
Jason Day	Farmers Insurance	110	3
Corey Conners	Match Play	Rollover	3
Cam Davis	RBC Heritage	180	3
Xander Schauffele	Waste Management	16	3
Joaquin Niemann	Memorial	75	3
Scottie Scheffler	BMW Championship	18	3
Daniel Berger	Honda Classic	16	4
Troy Merritt	Valero	100	4
Tom Hoge	3M Open	80	4
Justin Thomas	Byron Nelson	14	5
Ryan Palmer	Byron Nelson	120	5
Brooks Koepka	Match Play	Rollover	5
Matthew Fitzpatrick	PGA Championship	50	5
Tommy Fleetwood	PGA Championship	110	5
Daniel Berger	Memorial	60	5
Russell Henley	Wyndham	22	5
Corey Conners	BMW Championship	50	5
Justin Thomas	Genesis Invitational	16	6
Alex Smalley	Mexico Open	90	6
Billy Horschel	Waste Management	66	6
Dustin Johnson	Open	40	6
Aaron Wise	Tour Championship	45	6
Kevin Na	Charles Schwab	60	7
Chris Kirk	Honda Classic	70	7
Callum Tarren	3M Open	130	7
Rory McIlroy	PGA Championship	18	8
Patrick Cantlay	Open	33	8
Tyrrell Hatton	Wyndham	60	8
Jon Rahm	BMW Championship	14	8
Tyrrell Hatton	Match Play	Rollover	9
Brian Harman	Wells Fargo	75	9
J.T. Poston	Tour Championship	90	9
Erik Van Rooyen	RBC Heritage	110	10
Tommy Fleetwood	RBC Heritage	55	10
Keith Mitchell	Waste Management	110	10
Sungjae Im	Memorial	40	10

Yearly Record

2017 Golf Betting:
Top Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.03 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)
Overall Units Won (+54.26) 194.24% ROI

2018 Golf Betting:
Top Head to Head Bets (37-18-2) +26.64 Units
Outright Winners (6)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Overall Units Won (+55.88) 51.70% ROI

2019 Golf Betting:
Top Head to Head Bets (16-8-2) +8.48 Units
Outright Winners (4)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)
Overall Units Won (+27.743) 40.70% ROI

2020 Golf Betting:
Top Head to Head Bets (13-14-2) -1.46 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Bryson DeChambeau U.S. Open (33/1)
Dustin Johnson Travelers Championship (30/1)
Sungjae Im Honda Classic (35/1)
Patrick Reed WGC-Mexico (50/1)
Cameron Smith Sony Open (55/1)
Overall Units Won (+37.015) 20.21% ROI

2021 Golf Betting:
Top Head to Head Bets (17-13-1) +1.97 Units
Outright Winners (10)
Daniel Berger Pebble Beach (18/1)
Max Homa Genesis Invitational (66/1)
Justin Thomas Players Championship (22/1)
Billy Horschel Match Play (150/1)
Cameron Davis Rocket Mortgage (150/1)
Seamus Power Barbasol Championship (20/1)
Kevin Kisner Wyndham Championship (40/1)
Tony Finau Northern Trust (60/1)
Patrick Cantlay BMW Championship (25/1)
Rory McIlroy CJ Cup (20/1)
Overall Units Won (+68.846) 14.22% ROI

 

Career Record (Excluding 2022 Season Results)

Top Head-to-Head Bets (93-55-9) +43.66 Units 
Other Head-to-Head Bets (81-88-9) -4.82 Units
In-Tournament Head-to-Head Bets (125-82-22) +26.27 Units 
Outright Winners (30)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
2020 - 19
2021 - 32
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41
2020 - 41
2021 - 60 

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

Congrats @tenndolly2 ???

Thanks for being a @RotoBaller PGA DFS Premium subscriber & checking out all the amazing golf content that @JoeNicely produces every week! https://t.co/tHKZVsPbbt

— RotoBaller PGA (@RotoBallerPGA) August 10, 2020

Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big.

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks

More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks