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Connelly's fantasy baseball starting pitcher busts, avoids - breakouts due for regression in 2025. Fantasy managers should be wary of these players in drafts.
An important aspect of fantasy baseball is knowing when to buy a breakout. Fantasy managers typically get excited when a player showcases a strong season for the first time and may target them the next season, but should they?
The pool of serviceable starting pitchers was wider last season, but fantasy managers still cannot afford to pick the wrong breakout to hang their hat on. Identifying starters who may not do as well as they showed last season can help managers get the most value out of their teams.
In this article, I will identify four starting pitchers who had a breakout 2024 season but may not be able to repeat it in 2025. One important distinction to make: just because a player regresses does not mean they can’t still provide fantasy value!
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Luis Gil, New York Yankees
It may seem like a cop-out to flag the American League Rookie of the Year as a regression candidate, but I think there are plenty of warning signs for Luis Gil. The 26-year-old showed plenty of promise, going 15-7 with a 3.50 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 26.8% strikeout rate in 29 starts and 151 2/3 IP. What didn't look as good under the hood?
Fantasy managers don't have to imagine what regression could look like, as it was a tale of two halves for Gil. His first half led to a 3.17 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 28.2% strikeout rate with almost 5 1/2 IP/GS. His second half saw his concerns come to life with a 4.20 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and a 24.3% strikeout rate with under 5 IP/GS.
Luis Gil's first half is complete, and he'll enter the All-Star Break as one of the favorites to take home the American League Rookie of the Year Award.
3.17 ERA | 3.61 FIP | 28.2% K% | 1.08 WHIP | 2.5 WAR pic.twitter.com/kjvs56nCKM
— Fireside Yankees (@FiresideYankees) July 14, 2024
Digging into some of those second-half issues shows that Gil is far from a finished product. Walks have been an issue for him throughout his career, and his season walk rate of 12.1% is a clear liability. He didn't allow a ton of contact at 74.3% but allowed middling hard contact in the air at a 19-degree launch angle.
Fantasy managers seem to be weary of Gil already for 2025, as his current ADP is about 196 overall. Gil presents plenty of upside when everything is clicking, but his walk issues can quickly lead to implosion. I am the most hesitant about Gil of any pitcher in this article.
Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals
At age 34, Seth Lugo broke out in a big way in his second year as a starter. Lugo went 16-9 with a 3.00 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 21.7% strikeout rate in 33 starts and 206 2/3 IP. Why do I think regression could be on the horizon for him?
The most blatant evidence is that Lugo, like Gil, already started experiencing regression in 2024. His 2.48 first-half ERA earned him an All-Star nod, but his 3.84 second-half ERA aligned much more closely with his 3.94 season SIERA. This is not to say that Lugo pitched poorly in the second half, but more that he outperformed himself in the first half.
To further this point, Lugo is not an overpowering pitcher and allows a decent amount of contact at 79.5%. He's truly an everything-and-the-kitchen-sink type of pitcher, relying on nine different pitches last season. His batted-ball profile was mediocre, as he allowed roughly leave-average hard contact with a 10.7-degree average launch angle.
His batted-ball profile and outcomes did not align, as his .277 BABIP was lower than his .286 career mark, and his 1.09 WHIP was lower than his 1.15 career mark.
It is not impossible for players to reinvent themselves at any point in their careers. Lugo has clearly made a successful transition from the bullpen to the starting rotation. However, there isn't enough under the hood to support how good Lugo was in 2024.
I do think he could provide plenty of fantasy value in 2025, even with regression baked in, particularly in points leagues. Few pitchers can get close to 200 IP in today's game, so Lugo should be able to accumulate fantasy points even if his skills are not top-tier.
Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds
I classified Hunter Greene as a bust due to a bounce-back last season, and here I am flipping my view. The 25-year-old had the 2024 fantasy managers were hoping for, going 9-5 with a 2.75 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and a 27.7% strikeout rate in 26 starts and 150 1/3 innings pitched.
Certain aspects of his game remained the same. He introduced a split-finger fastball but mostly relied on a heavy four-seamer and a devastating slider. He still walked too many batters at a 9.3% clip. Finally, he didn't allow much contact at 74.1%, although this was a career-high.
Several key things changed for Greene in 2024. First, he produced much softer contact despite a similar pitch mix and approach. His 87.3-MPH average exit velocity and 32.5% hard-hit rate were both much lower than his career averages and were both in the top 15 percent of baseball.
His softer contact led to a .237 BABIP compared to a .281 career mark, a 1.02 WHIP compared to a 1.20 career mark, and a 6.9% HR/FB rate compared to a 12% career mark. The HR/FB rate is particularly surprising, as Greene has always been a flyball pitcher and had a career-high 20.8-degree launch angle.
Hunter Greene.
Good at baseball. pic.twitter.com/xnkg8ljKG0
— Reds Daily (@RedsDaily4) February 5, 2025
Overall, Greene didn't have a ton of visible changes in his game but got remarkably better results. He has always been thought of as a top fantasy prospect but I am not buying that he simply "figured things out" given his approach. His 3.81 SIERA and 4.19 xFIP also suggest that he may have overperformed.
Greene would still be a fantasy contributor with a high-3's ERA, a 1.10-1.15 WHIP, and a high strikeout rate, but he would not warrant a top-100 pick, which he is currently being drafted as.
Sean Manaea, New York Mets
Sean Manaea has provided fantasy value throughout his career but had his best season in 2024. At age 32, he went 12-6 with a 3.47 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 24.9% strikeout rate in 32 starts and 181 2/3 IP. He was rewarded this offseason with a three-year, $75 million deal. Why am I not buying it?
The Mets continue to add to their rotation reportedly bringing back LHP Sean Manaea on a three-year deal!
Manaea had a 3.09 ERA over his last 12 starts in 2024 with New York after dropping his arm slot, while opponents hit just .170 against him.#MLBNHotStove pic.twitter.com/V3ux28u8oS
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) December 23, 2024
Manaea's season numbers were fueled by a strong second half, in which he made a well-documented arm slot drop. He did get better second-half results and garnered hype, but the splits weren't that different. He posted a 3.46 ERA/1.21 WHIP/24.0% strikeout rate in 96 1/3 IP in the first half vs. a 3.48 ERA/0.94 WHIP/26.0% strikeout rate in 85 1/3 IP in the second half.
I would be more inclined to believe in Manaea's delivery change if it had happened earlier in his career. He had about 1,000 career innings of middling results before changing things up, which likely caught hitters off guard. I am worried that his changes acted more as a gimmick rather than a substantive skill change.
More generally, things just seemed to click for Manaea without a ton of skill changes. The last time he had a full season with a WHIP below 1.20 was 2018, his ERA was a career-low for a full season, and his strikeout rate was actually lower than his 2023 mark of 25.7%.
Manaea is currently being drafted inside the top 200 picks and is being drafted ahead of a bunch of starters who could offer more upside. Simply put, I am not ready to trust one solid half after a career of results that did not stand out.
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