Strong Septembers to Remember - 2022 Breakout Candidates

March 11, 2022

Jacob Taylor identifies breakout players from the end of last season who may be undervalued sleepers in 2022 fantasy baseball drafts.

One of the most difficult things to do as a fantasy sports contributor is attempting to glean valuable information from small sample sizes.

Small sample sizes represent a higher opportunity for variance, which can wreak havoc if not taken seriously or properly accounted for. However, variance isn't all bad and there are certain things to point to that can judge a true increase in production.

With that in mind, here are three hitters and three pitchers that had an extraordinary September that should not be forgotten.

Ian Happ, Chicago Cubs

Ian Happ got his opportunity once the Chicago Cubs traded most of their starting lineup prior to the trade deadline. He did not disappoint down the stretch. In the month of September, Happ produced a 167 wRC+ across 121 plate appearances with eight home run(s), seven stolen base(s), and a .317 average.

It's important when discussing a small sample size that we don't get caught up in the stats too much. However, Happ has pedigree as well. He was the ninth overall selection in 2015 by the Cubs, he was given a 55 future value by Fangraphs, and he has a career 112 wRC+ at the MLB level.

The reason for Happ's breakout in September could be that he is finally getting the opportunity to produce. Prior to the 2021 season, the Cubs had been a perennial playoff team and couldn't afford to give Ian Happ the at-bats he needed. Now, he is projected to hit in the middle of the lineup for a rebuilding Cubs team. The Steamer projections on Fangraphs give Happ 634 PA, .241 AVG, 112 wRC+, 30 HR, 81 runs, 88 runs batted in, and nine SB. Every one of those numbers except for the average would either tie or surpass career-highs. The 191.5 ADP on NFC is more than justified considering the pedigree and expected production.

Harrison Bader, St. Louis Cardinals

Harrison Bader represents one of the more exciting Septembers to remember. Bader, for the last several seasons, has caused concern among the fantasy community as a defense-only centerfielder. However, he posted a 163 wRC+ and a 1.8 fWAR in September of 2021. Furthermore, he finished the 2021 season with a 110 wRC+ and a 3.4 fWAR across 401 plate appearances. Those numbers replicate what we saw from Bader in 2018 when he was considered a rising prospect.

The outlook on Bader moving into 2022 is also very promising. The Cardinals fired manager Mike Shildt, the primary reason for his departure being an unwillingness to embrace analytics. The Cardinals organization seems to finally be heading in an analytical direction which can only help Bader's offensive production. Furthermore, Bader is one of the premier defenders in MLB when patrolling centerfield, which implies he will be offered ample playing time.

Steamer gives Bader 544 PA with 19 HR, 60 R, 65 RBI, 12 SB, a 104 wRC+, and a 2.9 fWAR. That would represent career highs except for runs scored and stolen bases. Bader's NFC ADP currently sits at 248.7 which puts him around Charlie Blackmon and Anthony Santander. Bader represents an undervalued asset in fantasy baseball.

Frank Schwindel, Chicago Cubs

Frank Schwindel represents the second Cub to make this list. During the month of September, Scwhindel produced a 160 wRC+ and a 1.2 fWAR across 134 plate appearances. The plate appearances are just as noteworthy as the production. Schwindel, 29, had seen a total of 15 career plate appearances prior to 2021. However, he finally got his shot this season on a rebuilding Cubs team. Across 259 PA he produced a 152 wRC+ and a 2.1 fWAR. That is insane production!

There are reasons to believe Schwindel can maintain his meteoric rise. He maintained a measly 15.7% K% with a solid 6.2% BB% which outlines good bat-to-ball skills and plate discipline. Furthermore, he was in the 85th percentile in max exit velocity and his hard-hit % was an outstanding 39.8%! The Cubs should give him ample playing time as they attempt to figure out if they've struck gold with Schwindel as they rebuild.

Steamer projects Schwindel for 589 plate appearances with 27 HR, 81 R, 75 RBI, three SB, 109 wRC+, and a 1.4 fWAR. Honestly, there is upside in those projections with Schwindel's batted ball skills and power. Schwindel's current NFC ADP is 231.37 where players like Josh Donaldson and Jeimer Candelario are going. Schwindel would be my priority over those two and I'll be buying stock this offseason.

Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks

Isn't it amazing how quickly people forget how elite a pitcher can be after they lose a season to injury? Zac Gallen is a perfect example of this. Gallen spent most of 2021 on and off the injured list of a mediocre Arizona Diamondbacks team. However, he posted a 3.42 xFIP with a .6 fWAR in the month of September. The 2021 season saw Gallen post a 4.30 ERA, 4.25 FIP, and a 3.96 xFIP across 121.1 inning(s) pitched, good for a 1.5 fWAR. What many forget is the elite-level production we saw just a year ago.

In 2020, Gallen managed a 2.75 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 3.62 xFIP across 72 IP, good for a 1.5 fWAR. That is ace-level production from a pitcher who is only 26 years old. Early Steamer projections give Gallen 178 IP with a 3.99 ERA and a 3.0 fWAR. Honestly, it would be surprising if he didn't exceed those numbers with a healthy 2022.

Gallen's current ADP sits at 150.51 where Luis Severino and Camilo Doval are being taken. Gallen represents a possible top-12 starting pitcher in his best-case scenario while his ADP currently represents his floor. Jump on the train as much as you can.

Michael Wacha, Boston Red Sox

Here is a massive sleeper candidate going into 2022. Michael Wacha did not have a good 2021 where managed a 5.05 ERA across 124.2 IP with Tampa Bay. That said, look a bit deeper. He finished with a 3.91 xFIP and still managed to produce a 1.1 fWAR despite the awful ERA. Furthermore, Wacha produced a 3.36 xFIP and .5 fWAR in the month of September alone. The 1.1 fWAR was his highest since 2017.

Now, Wacha heads to Boston where he signed a one-year, $7 million contract. The Red Sox have shown that they are capable of getting the most out of older veterans such as Garrett Richards and Nick Pivetta. Each of them played a key role in Boston's 2021 playoff run. Steamer shows Wacha with 134 IP with a 4.69 ERA and a 1.3 fWAR.

Honestly, the expectations are low for Wacha but there are reasons analytically advanced organizations such as Tampa Bay and Boston have been interested in Wacha's services. His ADP currently sits at 521.46 where Tyler Alexander and Cole Irvin are going. For the cost, Wacha represents a low-risk, high reward bet as the last pitcher on your roster.

Huascar Ynoa, Atlanta Braves

Huascar Ynoa represents the last player on this list of Septembers to remember. Ynoa was having a fantastic 2021 before punching a wall after a loss and breaking his hand. He then spent the next three months on the injured list. However, he returned towards the end of the season and posted a 3.42 xFIP and a .4 fWAR. He finished 2021 with a 4.05 ERA, 3.93 FIP, 3.40 xFIP, and a 1.4 fWAR.

Ynoa, 23, represents one of the rising stars in the Atlanta Braves organization and he should be a key rotation piece as they look to defend their title. He brings good velocity and quality stuff as he finished in the 69th percentile in Whiff % and the 78th percentile in chase rate. As he progresses in his career he will learn to manage hard contact better but the strikeout numbers for a 23-year-old are incredibly promising.

Steamer projects Ynoa for 124 IP, 3.99 ERA, and a 2.0 fWAR. Considering Ynoa managed 91 IP and a 4.05 ERA in an injury-riddled 2021, it's safe to bet that his numbers could be even better than the projected in 2022. Ynoa's ADP has him at 223.57 next to Cal Quantrill and Jordan Montgomery. The ADP represents the floor of what Ynoa could be, while his ceiling has a top-25 upside.

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