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Ben Ueberroth (@UeberMD) evaluates the fantasy baseball pitching landscape to identify second-half bust candidates. Consider trading these guys before they fall off the proverbial cliff.
Year in and year out, a handful of hitters and pitchers alike seem to be "slow starters". Names that carry weight going into fantasy baseball drafts can underperform in the first half, only to turn it on in the second half and become difference-makers for playoff spots and championships.
But what about the opposite? How can managers identify players who seem to be over-performing in the first half of the season? Should these over-performers be considered for trades before their value might plummet?
Identifying second-half bust candidates, particularly those who are currently ranked high enough to demand a decent trade return, can be a key skill for fantasy managers scrambling for a playoff spot. Ben Ueberroth (@UeberMD) examines some hurlers who are significantly outperforming their peripheral statistics and are thus set up for relative failure in the second half. Consider moving them now before they potentially clog a valuable roster spot with poor performances and diminishing trade returns.
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Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Bust Candidates
Ronel Blanco, SP - Houston Astros
The bubble is going to burst. Managers should get out while they still can. Blanco is perhaps at the highest risk of recurrent, poor performances in the second half. This can be especially painful for such a highly ranked player, as it is hard to drop a player with that ranking but managers are not going to trade for a pitcher going through bad outing after bad outing. Unfortunately, that seems to be in Blanco's near future.
The 2.75 ERA is enticing, and with a no-hitter in tow, the excitement in the first half for Blanco was warranted. But the tea leaves suggest that this was an aberration, not the "real" Blanco. At least not for the rest of 2024. Managers should also recall that he is 30 years old, so flashing brilliance at this age was a bit surprising to begin with. His run-in with umpires for foreign substances this year also calls some things into question.
Ronel Blanco was ejected last night following a foreign substance check pic.twitter.com/kGy3LE1QHa
— B/R Walk-Off (@BRWalkoff) May 15, 2024
Behind that glimmering ERA sits a grotesque 4.39 FIP. Going a layer deeper, there is no chance that Blanco maintains a sub-.200 BABIP, with his currently sitting at .185. Some of that is driven by an 84.3% LOB%, the sixth-highest number for SP with more than 40 IP in 2024. More balls in play are going to go for hits. More of those hits are going to get driven in. The sky will come falling down, and managers should get out from under that crash while they still can. He may have enough recognition to get something like an OF2 or above-average closer in return. Make the move now.
Seth Lugo, SP - Kansas City Royals
Lugo has been a revelation this year. After years of mediocrity with the Mets, never amassing more than 7 Wins, Lugo is already sitting at 12 Wins in 2024. Perhaps even more impressive is the 2.38 ERA, good for a top-five ranking across all of baseball in 2024.
While admittedly the cliff is not as steep for Lugo as it is for Blanco, there is still a strong suggestion that Lugo will regress at least partly back towards the pitcher he has been for most of his career. The first and easiest evidence is a 3.22 FIP and 3.69 xFIP. These numbers are telling, as a year-end ERA between those two numbers would still be SP2 territory, however, to go from a 2.38 ERA to a year-end 3.50 ERA, as an example, Lugo's second-half ERA would easily be above 4.00. That certainly would be a "bust" compared to his current top-five ranking.
Seth Lugo gets his 2nd half started on a great note!
9.0 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K 🔥
Lugo has now pitched 6+ innings allowing 2 or less ER in 6 of his last 7 starts 😤
— Just Fantasy Baseball (@JustFantasyBB) July 21, 2024
The Royals are competing and Lugo will still see some Win opportunities. His 22.5% K% is roughly in line with his career numbers, so he can provide some amount of strikeouts, although his main upside in 2024 has been found in other statistics. With a shimmering ranking of 15 in standard Yahoo leagues, Lugo is one of the best "sell high" candidates in all of baseball. It would not be unreasonable to send him off for any top-50 position player or perhaps a top-five closer with a locked-in gig. The best is behind him, so finding some value in a trade would be the savvy move here.
Tanner Scott, RP - Miami Marlins
Every bust list needs a reliever, and for this list, Scott is far and away the most likely current closer to fade into the hedge like Homer Simpson in the second half. The first concern is a potential trade. He currently has a lock on the Miami closing gig, strengthened even further by A.J. Puk's departure, but a move seems more likely than not with the Marlins clearly selling.
The Phillies have popped up as the most likely landing spot with Seranthony Dominguez on his way out. The Yankees are also in the market for a reliever at the deadline. A move to Philadelphia would at best put Scott in a two or three-man closing split, if not remove him from the ninth inning entirely. A move to New York would likely be a setup role but would likely provide slightly more SVOP than Philly.
RUMOR: The #Yankees are interested in LHP Tanner Scott (1.21 ERA, 44.2 IP, 51 SO, 0.99 WHIP) and “presumably” RHP Carlos Estévez (2.38 ERA, 34.0 IP, 32 SO, 0.74 WHIP), per @Ken_Rosenthal. pic.twitter.com/qIiVrQud50
— Bronx Bombers News (@NewsBronx) July 26, 2024
Even if he somehow stays in Miami, the writing is on the wall for a poor second half. Relievers have smaller sample sizes than starters, but even with a sample of 44 2/3 IP this year, Scott's peripheral statistics are alarming. His current 1.21 ERA sits against a 3.26 FIP and 3.74 xFIP. Under the hood, perhaps the scariest statistic is a .165 BABIP, which is unsustainable in general and well below Scott's .310 career average. Managers who can get any value, whether it be an SP3 or a utility bat, should be actively shopping Scott before he is traded and/or implodes.
Reynaldo Lopez, SP - Atlanta Braves
It is really astounding what Lopez has been able to do this year. Although he ranks lower overall than Blanco and Lugo in standard leagues, his 2.12 ERA is good for second place behind Paul Skenes in 2024 and ranks first for starters who have thrown more than 100 IP this year. The move to Atlanta this year is certainly reason for optimism and even when he was on the South Side, he still brought some potential and excitement to fantasy discussions. So how did he end up on this list?
"Big tree fall hard" may be a fair euphemism here, as Lopez's 3.16 FIP and 3.85 xFIP put his ERA and second-half potential in a new light. Although a 3.16 ERA at the season's end would be great overall, coming from 2.12 to that number would mean a relatively rough second half for Lopez. At best he would pitch to a 3.50 ERA, decent but not 2.12, and in a worst-case scenario that could balloon above 4.00 if he approaches his xFIP estimate.
MLB ERA leaders since May 9, min. 10 starts:
1. All-Star Garrett Crochet-1.78
2. All-Star Paul Skenes-1.93
3. All-Star Corbin Burnes-2.10
4. Michael Wacha-2.30
5. All-Star Reynaldo López-2.44Wacha take the ball tonight in the #Royals rubber match vs. AZ.#WelcomeToTheCity pic.twitter.com/G3RmA7iypr
— Ian Kraft (@Krafty_3) July 24, 2024
His 24.2% K% seems sustainable compared to a 21.7% career mark, so he can add some value in the strikeouts column. The Braves are actively competing for a wild card spot and will do what they can with a depleted but above-average lineup to set him up for Wins. Unfortunately, some blow-ups seem likely to come, and without the name recognition of some others on this list, the time to sell is now. Garnering a top-100 hitter via trade for a position in need will likely be more valuable for the remainder of 2024, and if managers can score a top-50 player they should take that trade immediately.
Tyler Anderson, SP - Los Angeles Angels
Anderson is owned in 60% of Yahoo leagues. Not nearly as highly owned as all the names above, but nonetheless for deeper leagues he is a prime candidate to consider moving before eventual regression. Some of Anderson's relatively lesser value is mired in his low strikeout output, as evidenced by a below-average 17.7% K% this season. Despite that, he has provided value in the form of a 2.91 ERA and 8 Wins.
Unfortunately, Anderson is the biggest ticking time bomb on this list. His 4.44 FIP and 4.89 xFIP are terrifying. To get anywhere near those numbers with his current 2.91 ERA, Anderson is going to have a horrific second half filled with blow-ups. And not just 4-5 ER blow-ups, likely significantly higher than that, which can be a week-ruiner in many leagues.
Don’t be surprised if Tyler Anderson becomes a trade candidate at the deadline. 2.91 ERA this year. Veteran lefty who can cover innings. Good #4 starter option for contenders. Team control for next season pic.twitter.com/bbRwXIfUuc
— Jason Shetler (@Jason_Shetler) July 23, 2024
Currently, Anderson holds an unsustainable .229 BABIP compared to his .283 career average. He, too, is leaving a scary amount of players on base with a 83.1% LOB% this year against a 72.7% career average. The Angels are not competing for a pennant this year, so Win opportunities are limited.
Perhaps a move to a contender could boost that slightly, but it would do little to improve his ratios and his career-long low strikeout output. A utility player or perhaps even an up-and-coming SP prospect would carry more value than Anderson in the second half. In a few months, he may be an outright drop candidate. Move him now.
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