RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~pick 270
CURRENT ADP: ~290 overall
ANALYSIS: All of Manaea's ERA indicators suggest that his 4.96 ERA was not entirely his fault. His xERA of 4.05 and xFIP of 3.96 are both in line with his 3.9 SIERA. Home runs were a big problem as he allowed 29 long balls last season- 15 of which came in his final 57 innings where his ERA ballooned to 6.44 compared to a 4.11 mark through his first 100 innings. That late-season swoon was largely attributed to a major decrease in velocity as he was topping out around 88-89 mph on his sinker by August.
His three offspeed pitches (curveball, slider, changeup) all sport solid swinging strike rates. Manaea's overall SwStr% of 13.1% and CSW% of 28.5% are not out of line with where he has been in prior seasons. If this increase in velocity that is being reported is sustainable, it's going to help him immensely as his sinker is by far his worst pitch in terms of batted ball data. He wasn't throwing it hard and was leaving it up in the zone last year, resulting in a career-low 39% GB rate and a career-high HR/FB of 1.65. We have seen other guys come out of the Driveline program with velocity bumps to mixed results. Manaea will need to sustain that velocity over the course of the whole season, too.
A ballpark upgrade in San Francisco certainly won't hurt either and the Giants have been known to help guys in the middle of their careers rediscover their best stuff (Gausman, Cobb, etc...)
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