Draft or Fade? The Saquon Barkley Dilemma

NY Giants running back Saquon Barkley has become a polarizing player in fantasy football leading into the 2022 season. Michael Florio explains whether Barkley is a draft value or bust.

It was just a few years ago that the New York Giants turned the football world on its head and drafted Saquon Barkley second overall in the NFL Draft. They went against the “RB doesn’t matter” grain and took a generational talent. Giants fans may hate that they took him over Josh Allen, but hey, at least they didn’t draft Sam Darnold. 

Barkley made the Giants look smart in Year One when he rushed 261 times for 1,307 yards and 11 touchdowns - while adding 121 targets, 91 catches, 721 yards, and four scores. He finished as the RB1 in fantasy football as a rookie and went off the board as the top pick the following year. That season Barkley played well but was unable to duplicate the success he had as a rookie. Injuries did affect him, but he finished as the overall RB10 and the RB7 in fantasy PPG. Then the following season, he tore his ACL and then was slowed down by injuries again last year. 

It has been three seasons since Barkley’s RB1 year and two years since we have seen Barkley look like Barkley. But the question is - should fantasy managers go back for more in 2022?

Figuring Out the Saquon Barkley Dilemma 

Heading into the 2022 season, Barkley was more of a second-round pick in fantasy, but at times would go in the backend of the first round. This was with everyone knowing that he was in his first season coming off of the torn ACL. Barkley started off slow, but after the opening two weeks, he was starting to be utilized more in the passing game. In Weeks 3 and 4, Barkley rushed 29 times for 103 yards, far from great numbers. But he saw 13 targets, 11 catches, and 117 yards, with three total touchdowns in that span. He was starting to look like the Saquon of old and certainly got fantasy players who took the shot on him excited. And then came Week 5. Barkley stepped on the foot of a Cowboys defensive player and rolled his ankle, suffering a high ankle sprain that robbed him of that game and the four that followed. 

Barkley only got to play two games with Daniel Jones the rest of the season. He saw five or more targets in each of those games and in four of his first five back from injury, including games with eight and nine targets. The Giants' offense was anemic the rest of the way, but it was pleasant to see Barkley rush for 102 yards on 21 carries against the Bears in Week 17. This may sound like making excuses for Barkley, but it is hard to hold the second half of the season against him. He was not only still working his way back from the ACL surgery, but add a high ankle sprain and an offense led by Mike Glennon and Jake Fromm, with bad play-calling to boot, and you can see that he was set up for failure. 

The most common reason I see for avoiding Barkley is his injury history. I get it - it is definitely frustrating when a top pick is repeatedly used on a player and they continue to just miss time due to injury. But, context matters, especially before labeling a player as “injury-prone”. My favorite example of this is when people labeled Keenan Allen as such because he tore his ACL one year and then missed time due to a lacerated kidney the following year.

Our human brains try to make sense of stuff rather than admitting that injuries, like most things in life, are random. There is such thing as bad injury luck. To me, injury-prone means there is a repeated injury that forces a player to miss time. An ACL tear is a common NFL injury, but it is not one that we see repeatedly happening to the same players over and over again. As for the high ankle sprain, any player could step on the foot of another player and roll an ankle. This sort of injury screams unlucky. And you do not have to believe me, but when I tweeted about this, Saquon Barkley himself liked the tweet. 

There’s a lot of chatter about Saquon Barkley not being able to stay healthy. I get it’s frustrating but he suffered a torn ACL (common football injury) and then stepped on someone’s foot and rolled his ankle last year

Seems like bad luck to me (much like with CMC)

— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) March 31, 2022

Putting injuries aside for now, we have to look at Barkley’s situation as a whole. A lot has changed from last year to this season for Barkley and the New York Giants. First, they will have a new coach and potential play-caller in Brian Daboll. When it comes to Daboll, many people expect a pass-first offense after the last two years with the Bills. But Daboll only became pass-happy because he had an elite QB in Josh Allen.

I am not saying they will be towards the bottom of the league in pass attempts, as Daboll has expressed that passing is just more valuable than running the ball in today's NFL. But, prior to having an elite QB, Daboll always had a run-first offense. In fact, his offenses ranked inside the top-six in rush attempts in five of his six seasons as an OC without an elite Allen. They ranked inside the top-10 in rushing yards in four of those seasons. There should be plenty of carries to help propel Barkley back into RB1 status as long as he stays healthy.

The Giants also went out and signed Mark Glowinski, Jon Feliciano, Jamil Douglas, and Matt Gono to help solidify their offensive line. None are an elite type of player, but their offensive line was in need of a big overhaul after last season. It should be better than it was a year ago and simply cannot be worse. Better blocking upfront only makes like easier for Barkley, who last year managed just 0.6 yards gained before contact per carry. The Giants also did not bring in much running back depth behind Barkley. They let Devontae Booker, who had 185 touches last season, walk, and replaced him with Matt Breida. That indicates that the Giants have faith that Barkley will be able to carry the load for them once again. 

We know the volume will be there for Barkley as long as he is healthy. But as with anything in fantasy football, the draft cost determines if a player is worth drafting or not. And for Barkley, he is cheaper than ever. Even last year coming off the ACL injury, he was a borderline first-round pick. But this year, he doesn’t even sniff the first round. Currently, Barkley is the RB13 off the board in FFPC drafts, going 23rd overall on average. That means he is going as a high-end RB2, around the two-three turn in drafts. He is the RB14 going 25th overall in NFFC drafts and he is the RB14 going 27th overall in Underdog drafts. That means that for the first time since Barkley has entered the NFL, you do not need to pay an RB1 price to get him.

For the first time ever, he is not going inside the first 15 picks or so, and you can even nab him in the third round. He is cheaper than ever in fantasy drafts, showing that the risk of him potentially getting injured is already somewhat baked into his ADP. 

There is not a whole lot to like if we look at Barkley’s numbers from 2021. In drafting him, you need to show some faith that the once generational talent and former overall RB1 can regain his old form a year removed from surgery and with the high ankle sprain now well behind him. We have seen many running backs regain their old form after tearing their ACL and if Barkley is next, he will look like an absolute steal come the end of the season. But with him in a better situation health-wise as well as from a team and play-calling standpoint. He also should remain heavily utilized in the passing game, if what we saw last season is any indication. 

Some people may have already written off Barkley after what we saw from him in 2021. But, with him coming cheaper than ever and possessing the same upside that many got excited about a year ago, he is worth taking a shot on once again in fantasy football. 

Make sure to follow Michael on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio

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