Running Back Next Gen Stats Review - Fantasy Football Outlooks For 2025

Corbin Young provides key fantasy football updates for running backs from the 2024 season, using Next Gen data to help fantasy owners make the best lineup and waiver wire decisions.

After the 2023 season, we covered Next Gen Stats for the running back position. We highlighted rush yards over expected per attempt and the percentage of carries with eight defenders in the box. Now, it's time to examine the Next Gen Stats for running backs again, but we'll mix in other advanced metrics.

Unsurprisingly, rush yards over expected per attempt correlate well (0.982) to rushing yards. However, RYOE/Att might not lead to fantasy points since it involves receiving production. Regardless, these Next Gen Stats help to paint a picture beyond the common ones like missed tackles forced, explosive rush rate, and others.

All data needs context, and we'll highlight some of that throughout this article. Even when we don't consider additional context, any leaderboard or group of advanced stats should lead us to dive deeper. That's the case with the Next Gen Stats review article for running backs. 

Rushing Yards Over Expected Per Attempt (RYOE/Att)

Next Gen Stats defines rushing yards over expected per attempt (RYOE/Att) as the difference between the player's actual rushing yards and the expectation based on a given play or multiple plays. RYOE/Att estimates an average rusher's yardage and what they could have in similar scenarios. It helps to show rushing efficiency for a player, and we see the leaders in RYOE/Att below with a minimum of 25 carries.

Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Sean Tucker, Jordan Mason, Chuba Hubbard, and Jerome Ford averaged more than one yard over expected per attempt. If we round up, we can see several other rushers were close behind, including Jahmyr Gibbs, Bucky Irving, and Isaac Guerendo.

Henry, Barkley, and Hubbard had the volume plus the rushing efficiency, meaning they're talented rushers, though Hubbard doesn't typically enter the near-elite rusher group. Mason and Guerendo popping could be a product of the 49ers' offensive system boosting somewhat mediocre players, though both have the athleticism and juice.

Gibbs was the third-most-efficient running back in fantasy points over expectation per game (FPOE/G), with the 11th-highest expected fantasy points per game (EP/G). That aligns with the higher RYOE/Att for Gibbs. Similarly, Irving was the 10th-most-efficient running back in FPOE/G, yet ranked 27th in EP/G. Irving shared touches with Rachaad White and finished as one of the most efficient rushers in 2024.

Expected Rush Yards (xRY)

Not be confused with expected rushing yards (xRY), which Next Gen Stats defines as the amount of rushing yards a rusher expects to gain on an attempt given the location, speed, and direction of the run blockers and defenders. That tells us that xRY accounts for other factors beyond the rushers' control.

Interestingly, Mason and Hubbard had below-average xRY/Att among those leaders in RYOE/Att. Given the definition of xRY, this could suggest that Mason and Hubbard have other factors contributing to the challenges, like run blockers, the positions of opposing defenders, and rush location. Mason had 73.9 percent of his rush attempts come from under center, with Hubbard at 65.6 percent. For context, the league average of under-center rush attempts was 49.4 percent.

We mention this because we're in the era of NFL offenses using motion and having shotgun formations when a rusher isn't under center. The other factor could be Mason's lack of targets (4 percent), making his usage somewhat predictable. Meanwhile, the Panthers lacked other reliable offensive options besides Hubbard, though their team stock is up in 2025, and Hubbard could be an undervalued option.

The most notable rushers with the lowest xRY/Att include Rhamondre Stevenson, Nick Chubb, Zach Charbonnet, Josh Jacobs, and Joe Mixon. With Jacobs, we know the Packers loved establishing the run, evidenced by the highest neutral game script rush rate (53 percent) in 2024. That's an instance where volume overweighs the efficiency.

Mixon and Chubb have a year or two left in their careers, so their efficiency decline should be expected. Charbonnet had a lower xRY/Att (3.55), but Kenneth Walker III wasn't far behind at 3.82 xRY/Att. Walker has typically given us the highlight-reel-type plays, and his Next Gen Stats weren't far from Charbonnet.

Charbonnet (0.60) bested Walker (-0.10) in RYOE/Att, with a slightly better 10+ rush yard percentage (11.9 percent vs. 8.5 percent). Walker battled through injuries (oblique, calf, ankle), so maybe we can adjust his advanced stats. Assuming the Seahawks invest in the offensive line, we could see regression for the Seahawks running backs in 2025.

Stacked Box Rate

Next Gen Stats renamed its eight or more defenders in the box as Stacked Box Rate. The league average of rushers who faced stacked boxes was 22 percent of the time. Among rushers with 50 attempts, we had eight players with a stacked box rate of 30 percent or more in 2024.

The most notable rushers included Gus Edwards, Mason, Henry, and Ray Davis among players with 100 attempts. Though these metrics aren't related, it's worth highlighting that Guerendo, Mason, and Henry had above-average RYOE/Att among the players with the highest stacked box rate. That suggests Guerendo, Mason, and Henry were relatively efficient, even with stacked boxes.

With Guerendo and Mason, that could give us an indication of how opposing defenses planned to defend against the 49ers. Meanwhile, Henry is a unicorn, defying the age and workload concerns, but it's the outlier, not the rule.

Notable rushers who faced lower stacked box rates include Ford, Isiah Pacheco, Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson, Antonio Gibson, and Kyren Williams. Hall and Braelon Allen saw lower stacked box rates similar to the 49ers, but on the other end. That's possibly due to the Jets trailing and having the sixth-highest pass rate when behind seven or more points. Maybe opposing defenses were daring the Jets offense to run the ball.

Robinson and Williams had over 300 carries while seeing a below-average stacked box rate. Besides stacked boxes, Robinson's under-center carries (24.7 percent) were drastically lower than Williams' (65.5 percent). That's unsurprising for Robinson since he had an elite workload, with the second-most expected fantasy points per game (EP/G).

The other narrative involves opposing defenses using different formations to defend their pass-catchers, including Drake London, Darnell Mooney, Puka Nacua, and Cooper Kupp. However, one could argue that the Jets had other weapons besides their running backs. Like any standalone metric, stacked boxes can be considered but need more context.

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