RB Handcuffs to Target: NFC Edition

Dan Fornek names the top running back backups and fantasy football handcuffs to target on draft day in 2020, starting with NFC backfields.

Imagine the feeling of using your early start-up draft pick on a bell-cow running back. He is a lock to get a majority of your team’s carries. He is going to be a major factor in the receiving game. Heck, he may just mess around and lead the league in rushing touchdowns because he is THAT good. You finish your draft, feeling great about your team. Then, BAM!

The news breaks that he wants a new contract and is holding out (Melvin Gordon III last year, Dalvin Cook this year). Or, what if you head into an early-season contest and your running back suffers the dreaded high-ankle sprain (Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara) and you know he won’t play or be the same for eight weeks. What looked to be such a promising team has now fallen apart, unless you were forward-thinking and went out of your way to secure his handcuff.

Acquiring a handcuff is going to be the most likely to step into the role of an injured starter in the case of an emergency. For some teams, there are very obvious options that fantasy players need to be aggressive in drafting. For others, it is more ambiguous, especially with how they utilize their backfield. In this article, I will be doing a rundown of the NFC team’s backfields so you can best prepare your fantasy roster in the draft for the 2020 season. (ADP Provided from fantasyfootballcalculator.com)

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Arizona Cardinals

2020 Starter: Kenyan Drake
Other RBs: Chase Edmonds, Eno Benjamin, D.J. Foster, Jonathan Ward
Handcuff to target: Chase Edmonds (RB50, 12th/13th round)
Priority: High

Breakdown: There is a chance that Kliff Kingsbury decides to pull back on Kenyan Drake in year two (Drake handled over 60% of the carries for Arizona after being acquired via trade), meaning Edmonds may have a weekly role. Fun fact: Chase Edmonds was the RB1 in Week 7 of the fantasy season against the Giants. Edmonds delivered 27 carries for 160 yards and three touchdowns while adding four targets, two receptions, and 24 receiving yards, good for 35.0 PPR points. A week later he was injured, Drake was acquired, the rest was history.

Atlanta Falcons

2020 Starter: Todd Gurley
Other RBs: Ito Smith, Brian Hill, Quadree Ollison, Craig Reynolds, Mike Daniel
Handcuff to target: Ito Smith (RB60, 15th round)
Priority: Low

Breakdown: Todd Gurley enters his first season as the lead back in Atlanta. Despite concerns about his knee in the 2019 season, he still played in 15 contests for the Rams. If Gurley can continue to stay on the field, he will benefit from an upgrade in the offensive line. For Atlanta, Ito Smith averaged 34% of the offensive snaps from weeks 1-6 and averaged 4.8 yards per carry. Smith was placed on the injured reserve due to a neck injury and concussion after week seven, ending his season early.

Carolina Panthers

2020 Starter: Christian McCaffrey
Others: Reggie Bonnafon, Jordan Scarlett, Mike Davis, Rodney Smith
Handcuff: None (Take a shot on Bonnafon or Scarlett in last round)
Priority: Very Low

Breakdown: Christian McCaffrey registered 86% of the team’s offensive snaps in 14 of 16 games in 2019 (including week 17 where the team rested him). Reggie Bonnafon was the only other running back to play in 16 games. There isn’t much to be aware of heading into your league’s draft regarding the backup, so it makes no sense to prioritize any of the backup options just to have a player on your bench.

Chicago Bears

2020 Starter: David Montgomery/Tarik Cohen (Each has a defined offensive role)
Others: Ryan Nall, Artavis Pierce, Napoleon Maxwell
Handcuff: Likely not on the roster
Priority: Low… but if you draft Montgomery, Cohen is a good follow up pick. Currently RB44, 9th/10th round

Breakdown: Technically speaking, Tarik Cohen doesn’t qualify as a handcuff running back because he has a very defined role in the Bears’ offense. In 2019, Cohen registered four games with 10+ targets and over 50% of offensive snaps played. Cohen has not had double-digit carries in a game for the Bears since week four of the 2018 season. If anything were to happen to David Montgomery, it is highly likely the Bears would head to free agency to find a veteran option. Outside of Montgomery and Cohen, there are no RBs on the roster worth a bench spot.

Dallas Cowboys

2020 Starter: Ezekiel Elliott
Others: Tony Pollard, Jordan Chunn, Rico Dowdle, Darius Anderson
Handcuff: Tony Pollard (RB48, 11th round)
Priority: Very High

Breakdown: Regardless of handcuff, Tony Pollard could be used as a piece in the Dallas offense in 2020. Pollard had 10 games with a double-digit snap share in 2019 and had at least 10 carries in four contests. Ezekiel Elliott has proven to be very durable throughout his career, but Pollard would allow the Cowboys to keep him fresh later in the season by utilizing Pollard more in his second season.

If anything were to happen to Ezekiel Elliott, Pollard would launch into weekly top-12 RB territory thanks to the Dallas offensive line and his explosive running style. If you draft Zeke early, it isn’t a terrible idea to jump on Pollard in round 9 or 10 to protect your early draft pick.

Detroit Lions

2020 Starter: Probably Kerryon Johnson to start 2020
Others: D’Andre Swift, Bo Scarborough, Ty Johnson, Wes Hillis, Jason Huntley
Handcuff: D’Andre Swift until Kerryon Johnson gets injured or is ineffective
Priority: High, but good luck figuring it out

Breakdown: Well, we have finally found our first NFC backfield that makes absolutely no sense until the 2020 season begins. As it stands, Kerryon Johnson will likely enter the 2020 season as the starter. But he has only played in 18 of 32 games in two seasons thanks to an assortment of injuries. The Lions used a second-round pick on D’Andre Swift, the running back from Georgia, but it remains unclear if he will assume the starting position at the start of the season or later on.

The Lions used a three-headed monster of Bo Scarborough (six games, 89 carries, 377 yards, one touchdown), Ty Johnson (16 games, 63 carries, 273 yards, 31 targets, 24 receptions, 109 yards), and J.D. McKissic (16 games, 38 carries, 205 yards, 42 targets, 34 receptions, 233 yards, one touchdown) to offset fill in for Kerryon last season. Interestingly enough, Swift (RB29, 5th/6th round) is being drafted ahead of Kerryon Johnson (RB41, 9th round), further complicating matters. If you take the chance on Swift, it isn’t a terrible idea to hedge your bets by taking Kerryon a few rounds later.

Green Bay Packers

2020 Starter: Aaron Jones
Others: Jamaal Williams, A.J. Dillon, Dexter Williams, Damarea Crockett
Handcuff: Jamaal Williams (RB59, 14th round) with AJ Dillon (RB55, 13th/14th round) as a goal-line back
Priority: Low

Breakdown: The Packers made the confusing decision to invest in AJ Dillon at the end of the second round, despite needing wide receiver help. Despite fantasy gamers being frustrated at times with head coach Matt LaFleur’s insistence on using Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams in 2019, Jones ended up with 57% of the team’s rushing attempts and 12% of the team’s targets. Conversely, Williams had 26% of the team’s rushing attempts and an 8% target share.

Looking to 2020, Aaron Jones will once again take on a bulk of the work in the Packers’ backfield, with Williams spelling him on occasion and possible appearances on the goal line from Dillon. In case of injury, Dillon’s 21 career receptions at Boston College suggests he will be an early-down runner with Jamaal Williams working on passing situations and 3rd down reps.

Los Angeles Rams

2020 Starter: Cam Akers???
Others: Darrell Henderson, Malcolm Brown, John Kelly, James Gilbert, Xavier Jones
Handcuff: Unclear
Priority: Medium (Try to pair Akers and Henderson if possible)

Breakdown: As it stands, Cam Akers is currently being drafted as RB28 (5th/6th round) with Darrell Henderson as RB46 (10th round). Henderson, a third-round pick in 2019, failed to launch his rookie year, amassing just 39 carries for 147 yards and four receptions (six targets) for 37 yards. Todd Gurley handled a majority of the running work for the Rams with the occasional goal-line appearance from Malcolm Brown. The Rams chose to cut Gurley before the 2020 season and replaced him with Cam Akers, the former Florida State running back, in the second round.

At this juncture, the Rams seem content to employ a truly split backfield, making it a good idea to draft both Akers and Henderson. Brown may once again factor in as a goal-line option but isn’t worth consideration in your 2020 fantasy draft. It wouldn’t be surprising if Akers emerged as the lead back later in the season, but better safe than sorry when it comes to your fantasy team.

Minnesota Vikings

2020 Starter: Dalvin Cook (Holdout)
Others: Alexander Mattison, Mike Boone, Ameer Abdullah, Tony Brooks-Jones
Handcuff: Alexander Mattison (RB42, 9th round)
Priority: HIGH

Breakdown: And now, we arrive at the inspiration for this article. If you haven’t been paying attention, Dalvin Cook recently announced he would be holding out until he received a “fair contract offer” from the Vikings. This move temporarily propels Alexander Mattison into the starting job. There is plenty of time between now and the season, so the contract situation may become resolved. However, that doesn’t mean Mattison should be ignored even with Cook locked up to a new deal.

In 2019, Mattison played in 13 games, registering 100 carries for 462 yards and a touchdown while adding 10 receptions (12 targets) and 82 yards. Cook has shown that he is an injury risk in his career, missing 12 games with an ACL tear in 2017, five games with a hamstring strain in 2018, and two games with shoulder injuries in 2019. The shoulder injury is especially concerning as it has a higher chance of reoccurring until Cook opts for surgery.

It is also worth noting that Boone could be worth a late stash if your league drafts before Cook signs a new deal. From weeks 15 to 17 in 2019, Boone had 41 carries for 232 yards and three touchdowns in addition to three receptions (four targets) and 17 yards. Boone is unlikely to see much work with Cook and Mattison ahead of him, but if one of them misses significant time, he is a great last round flyer to add to your bench.

Regardless, if you take the chance on Dalvin Cook early in your fantasy draft, it is not a terrible idea to overdraft Mattison (think round 5) to make sure you don’t lose out on that running attack.

New Orleans Saints

2020 Starter: Alvin Kamara
Others: Latavius Murray, Ty Montgomery, Dwayne Washington, Ricky Ortiz, Taquan Mizzell, Tony Jones Jr.
Handcuff: Latavius Murray (RB44, 9th/10th round)
Priority: High

Breakdown: Alvin Kamara was a victim of a high ankle sprain during the 2019 season, costing him two games. In his absence, Latavius Murray put together 48 carries for 221 yards and three touchdowns while adding 14 receptions (18 targets) for 86 yards and a touchdown. Murray averaged 83% of the offensive snaps during those weeks and finished as the RB1 in fantasy football thanks to an absurd 34.4 points averaged per week.

When Kamara was healthy enough to play, Murray still had a role in the Saints’ offense, carrying the ball at least four times in 15 of the 16 games he played in. He also was targeted at least three times in eight separate contests. The lack of significant competition behind Murray makes him a high priority handcuff for a Saints team that is operating in a win-now window.

New York Giants

2020 Starter: Saquon Barkley
Others: Dion Lewis, Wayne Gallman, Jon Hilliman, Javon Leake
Handcuff: Unclear (Likely a split between Gallman and Lewis)
Priority: Very Low

Breakdown: The Giants are one of the few backfields in the NFL that are completely dominated by one player, which makes sense when that one player is Saquon Barkley. Unfortunately, Barkley was forced to miss time during the 2019 season thanks to a high ankle sprain, and although he was able to recover quickly, it still forced the Giants into alternative options. Wayne Gallman got the first crack at the backfield, carrying the ball 25 times for 90 yards and one touchdown while adding six receptions (seven targets) for 55 yards and one touchdown from weeks three to five. Once Gallman went down with a concussion, Hilliman took over, amassing 30 carries for 91 yards and three receptions for one yard from weeks 4-6.

If anything were to happen to Barkley again, Gallman would likely inherit the early-down work with Dion Lewis handling passing-down duties for the 2020 season. Gallman is a fine addition in the last round of a fantasy draft if you want to stash the player who will get the majority of the backfield action in case of injury.

Philadelphia Eagles

2020 Starter: Miles Sanders
Others: Boston Scott, Corey Clement, Elijah Holyfield, Michael Warren II, Adrian Killins Jr.
Handcuff: Unclear. Boston Scott (RB57, 14th round) and Corey Clement likely both have a role
Priority: Low

Breakdown: It may have taken time, but rookie running back Miles Sanders burst on to the fantasy scene toward the end of the season. From weeks 10-16 (the Eagles rested Sanders week 17), the Penn State product had 103 carries for 482 yards and two touchdowns while adding 28 receptions (36 targets) for 204 yards and two additional touchdowns.

Sanders was the RB11 during that time, although it’s worth noting he was RB6 from weeks 13-17. The Eagles were intent on keeping Sanders fresh, also utilizing Boston Scott from weeks 14-17. Scott was RB7 from weeks 14-17, thanks to 38 carries for 151 yards and four touchdowns along with 23 receptions (25 targets) and 199 yards.

The Eagles have been tied to many veteran running back options this offseason, but as it stands, Scott is the most likely handcuff to grab later in drafts if you snag Miles Sanders in the first two rounds.

San Francisco 49ers

Starter: Raheem Mostert/Tevin Coleman
Others: Jerick McKinnon, Jeff Wilson, JaMycal Hasty, Salvon Ahmed
Handcuff: ??? (Good luck). (Tevin Coleman is currently RB43, 9th round)
Priority: High due to the general uncertainty

Breakdown: Raheem Mostert has ridden an impressive playoff run and closing to a 5th round ADP in fantasy football, but can we trust it? Historically, Kyle Shanahan has utilized a two running back approach, with at least two players handling 20% or more of the team’s carries. Last season, Tevin Coleman, Matt Breida, and Raheem Mostert all totaled around 25% of the team’s carries. All three of those players had 120 carries and 22 targets. Mostert likely heads into the 2020 season as their starting running back, but it seems unlikely he will command a traditional “bell cow” role. Hedge your bets and take Tevin Coleman in the 8th or 9th round to protect yourself if you take the plunge on Mostert.

Seattle Seahawks

2020 Starter: Chris Carson
Others: Carlos Hyde, Rashaad Penny, Travis Homer, DeeJay Dallas, Anthony Jones
Handcuff: Carlos Hyde (RB54, 13th/14th round)
Priority: Medium

Breakdown: For all intents and purposes, it appears Chris Carson will be ready to go week 1 after suffering a fractured hip at the end of the 2019 season. Before the injury, Carson had 278 carries, 1,230 yards, and seven touchdowns. He also continued to grow in the passing game as he was the recipient of 47 targets. Fumbles remain quite the concern as Carson put the ball on the ground seven times in 15 games, which led to Rashaad Penny seeing an increase in touches before his ACL injury.

If you take Carson early in your draft, make sure to prioritize getting Carlos Hyde at the end of your draft. Penny will be trying to return off a late-season knee injury and will likely take a while to get moving.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2020 Starter: Ronald Jones II
Others: Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Dare Ogunbowale, Raymond Calais, T.J. Logan
Handcuff: Ke’Shawn Vaughn
Priority: High

Breakdown: Here is another situation where the starter’s ADP is actually after the handcuffs. Currently, Ronald Jones is being drafted as RB35 in the 7th/8th round while Vaughn is being drafted as RB32 in the 6th/7th round. Jones was productive enough in his sophomore season with Tampa Bay that he will likely see early-down running work, with Vaughn coming on the field for passing situations or blocking duties. If Jones struggles early, Vaughn may take some of the carries off of his plate.

The best strategy may be to take Vaughn a bit earlier than his ADP (aim for the middle of round 6) and then turn around and grab Jones II in the middle of round seven. This could be a very difficult backfield to pin down before the 2020 season.

Washington Redskins

2020 Starter: Derrius Guice
Others: Adrian Peterson, Antonio Gibson, Bryce Love, Peyton Barber, J.D. McKissic
Handcuff: Probably an Adrian Peterson (RB53, 13th/14th round)/Antonio Gibson (RB51, 12th/13th round) hybrid role
Priority: High

Breakdown: Derrius Guice has been tantalizing fantasy players with his physical gifts for two seasons now, but he has yet to prove he can stay healthy. From weeks 11-13 last season, Guice carried the ball 27 times for 185 yards and two touchdowns while adding four receptions (six targets) for 59 yards and an additional score. Unfortunately, he suffered yet another knee injury and was forced to end another season on the injured reserve. Injury history is a reason to prioritize a handcuff if you choose to draft Guice for your fantasy team.

Ultimately, Adrian Peterson is likely to see a bulk of the rushing work. Peterson started 15 games for Washington last season and averaged 14 carries per game. Antonio Gibson could figure to see some passing work and all indications point to Bryce Love being ready to make his NFL debut after his own knee problems last season. For now, Peterson is the most likely to step into the bulk of the work, so prioritize adding him in the late rounds of your draft.

Be on the lookout for the AFC edition (and a final ranking of handcuffs to prioritize heading into the 2020 season).

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