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Mike's College Football Playoff rankings projections for the third CFP poll on November 18, 2025. His Week 13 College Football Playoff rankings and breakdown.
Predicting the Top 25 College Football Playoff Rankings Week 13
ACC on ACC crime continued this week. The American Conference also chose chaos over order, with four teams in the conference having one loss in conference play. Will that allow for Conference USA or the Sun Belt to enter the discussion? The SEC dream came true as it seems all but a done deal that the conference will get five bids or more to the College Football Playoff.
We have two weeks of data from this iteration of the committee, but a shakeup at the top led to Utah AD Mark Harlan being appointed to the committee after Mack Rhoades stepped down due to an ongoing investigation at Baylor. Arkansas AD Hunter Yurachek takes over as the committee chair. I hate the idea of having sitting ADs on the committee. It’s a massive conflict of interest, especially with Utah on the outside looking in for a CFP berth. I’ll try my best to break down what the CFP ranking will look like on Tuesday.
25. James Madison (9-1)
Last week: NR
Result: W 58-10 vs. Appalachian State
The committee doesn’t show rankings after the 25th slot, but it hinted last week that Tulane and JMU were close. The Dukes’ throttling of Appalachian State is making a point. Their demolition of Old Dominion will rank highly if the committee has paid attention to what the Monarchs have done this year.
24. Tulane (8-2)
Last week: NR
Result: W 35-24 vs. Florida Atlantic
The CFP has proven that win-loss records, even within the same conference, mean little. That will give them the ammunition and precedent to move Tulane in and keep North Texas out. Tulane will be the chosen one because of the loss to Mississippi and wins over Power 4 teams Duke and Northwestern. More chaos is likely coming in the American as well because no team looks dominant, but I feel confident the CFP will have one of those teams — but likely only one — in the rankings to take the place of South Florida.
23. Louisville (7-3)
Last week: 20 (⇓3)
Result: L 19-20 vs. Clemson
By its own admission, the committee said that it still valued “names” such as Boise State and Clemson. Add to that the fact that the committee has considered injuries this year, and I think they’ll go easy on Louisville for losing to a name without Isaac Brown, their best player.
22. Missouri (7-3)
Last week: NR
Result: W 49-27 vs. Mississippi State
Ahmad Hardy ran for 300 yards on Mississippi State. I’m not even sure that the committee will care that Missouri’s starting quarterback might be done for the year.
21. Washington (7-3)
Last week: NR
Result: W 49-13 vs. Purdue
Washington demolished Purdue without star RB Jonah Coleman and star receiver Denzel Boston. That likely moves the Huskies back into the rankings.
20. Tennessee (7-3)
Last week: 23 (⇑3)
Result: W 42-9 vs. New Mexico State
The Vols and Iowa were the only three-loss teams in the rankings last week. Tennessee will move up accordingly since Iowa lost, and three-loss ACC teams will be ignored.
19. Virginia (9-2)
Last week: 19 ⇔
Result: W 34-17 at Duke
This wasn’t nearly as close as the score indicates. The Wahoos were up 31-3 going into the fourth quarter. A convincing road win would move Virginia up if they were in the Big Ten or SEC. The ACC won’t be treated the same.
18. Michigan (8-2)
Last week: 18 ⇔
Result: W 24-22 at Northwestern
Michigan turned it over five times, yet still won. This was a poor performance by Michigan, and I think they should be moved down. However, the premise of this piece is to predict what the committee will do. They’re not moving Michigan down for struggling in a conference road game. Never mind that Virginia took Duke behind the woodshed. It’s painfully clear what they think of the ACC.
17. Georgia Tech (9-1)
Last week: 16 (⇓1)
Result: W 36-34 at Boston College
SMU obliterated Boston College on Chestnut Hill last week. The CFP already thinks little of Georgia Tech. They’re going to think even less after this performance.
16. USC (8-2)
Last week: 17 (⇑1)
Result: W 26-21 vs. (21) Iowa
Iowa was in control of this game at the half, but didn’t come out of the locker room in the second half. The committee already showed what they think of Georgia Tech’s play and schedule. The Bees will lose another slot since USC beat a ranked team. It’s okay to struggle as long as it’s against a ranked team. We can argue the merits of ranking Iowa all we want, but the number beside the name means more in the eyes of the people who put that number there.
15. Miami (FL) (8-2)
Last week: 15 ⇔
Result: W 41-7 vs. North Carolina State
The Canes showed up and dominated the Pack, who have sniped a couple of ACC teams this season. The CFP did Georgia Tech dirty, ranking them behind Miami, but they look justified after Tech needed a miracle to beat Boston College.
14. Vanderbilt (8-2)
Last week: 14 ⇔
Result: BYE
The CFP has also consistently not punished bye weeks unless a team below the team on bye does something exceptional. Miami and Georgia Tech did nothing of the sort.
13. Utah (8-2)
Last week: 13 ⇔
Result: W 55-28 vs. Baylor
The committee might keep Utah above Texas with the addition of Utah’s athletic director to the committee, but I wouldn’t hold my breath. Both of Utah’s losses are to top 10 teams, so you’ll see Utah above Texas in my rankings. The CFP doesn’t care about my rankings, though.
12. Texas (7-3)
Last week: 10 (⇓2)
Result: L 10-35 at (5) Georgia
The ranking of Texas after getting beat down in Athens is going to break the internet. The committee is going to value Texas losing to another top 5 team on the road more than wins over middle-of-the-pack ACC or Big 12 teams. It’s almost like they ignore the loss to Florida, which is turning out to be worse than any of us imagined. The CFP has an SEC chair now. They already viewed the conference as superior. The closer they have Texas to the cut line, the easier it will be to sneak them in when more ACC chaos happens.
11. BYU (9-1)
Last week: 12 (⇑1)
Result: W 44-13 vs. TCU
The Cougars needed to win like this. Most of the committee already views the Big 12 as “less than,” and they lost the committee chair spot. The rankings of BYU and Utah will be important, but I don’t see the CFP changing its opinion of them unless carnage happens in front of them. The chances for that to happen dwindle by the week.
10. Notre Dame (8-2)
Last week: 9 (⇓1)
Result: W 37-15 at (22) Pittsburgh
This was the only chance for someone to knock the Irish out of the CFP. The committee set the standard weeks ago by ranking the Irish in the top 10 of the initial rankings.
9. Alabama (8-2)
Last week: 4 (⇓5)
Result: L 21-23 vs. (11) Oklahoma
This one has to sting for Alabama. They dominated Oklahoma everywhere except on turnovers, and the Sooners turned the turnovers into points. Given the fact that the committee is usually adamant about head-to-head games where applicable, Alabama should fall behind the Sooners this week. The win over Georgia should undoubtedly keep the Tide ahead of the Irish.
8. Oklahoma (8-2)
Last week: 11 (⇑3)
Result: W 23-21 at (4) Alabama
This is where the rankings will get interesting. It makes no sense to rank Notre Dame above Oklahoma or Alabama. Both teams are 4-1 against teams currently in the top 25. The Irish’s only win over a currently ranked team is USC, as Pitt will likely fall out of the rankings this week. The committee loves Notre Dame, but I don’t know how they rank Alabama over the team that just beat them, or Notre Dame over either two-loss team that has so many ranked wins.
Stranger things have happened with the committee. With Hunter Yurachek now the committee chair, I think we’ll see two-loss SEC teams get a lot of love this week, even at the expense of the team the committee has a back-room deal with.
7. Oregon (9-1)
Last week: 8 (⇑1)
Result: W 42-13 vs. Minnesota
This ends the parade of one-loss teams, aside from a BYU team that still gets no respect from the committee. That’s not going to change. Beating TCU isn’t enough. Oregon looked better than Ole Miss, but they didn’t beat a ranked team. I think the committee leaves the Rebels ahead of Oregon.
6. Mississippi (10-1)
Last week: 7 (⇑1)
Result: W 34-24 vs. Florida
Lane Kiffin’s Rebels struggled with his future employer before putting the Gators away in the fourth quarter. The committee hasn’t set a precedent of moving teams down because of a poor performance in a conference game. The only way the initial hierarchy changes is if someone beats a ranked team or loses.
5. Texas Tech (10-1)
Last week: 6 (⇑1)
Result: W 48-9 vs. Central Florida
The committee has been consistent about keeping the teams in the original order unless they have a significant reason to move them. Georgia beat another top 10 team so they won’t get stuck behind Tech. Ole Miss didn’t do enough to overtake the Red Raiders. Tech’s schedule is Charmin-soft down the stretch. They need to win their last game big, just like this one, to have a shot at a first-round bye.
4. Georgia (9-1)
Last week: 5 (⇑1)
Result: W 35-10 vs. (10) Texas
This was a statement by Georgia. I’m not sure they’re the best one-loss team, but they certainly looked like it here. This was the most complete game that the Bulldogs have played in 2025.
3. Texas A&M (10-0)
Last week: 3 ⇔
Result: W 31-30 vs. South Carolina
The Aggies trailed 30-3 at the half. This comeback marked the largest in Aggies’ history and the largest in the SEC since 2000. It’s the first 10-0 start for A&M since 1992. I refuse to call this a “Heisman moment” for Marcel Reed since his play was part of the reason the Aggies were behind the 8-ball to begin with. There’s nothing noble about getting smacked by a 3-6 team for a half on your home turf.
The committee won’t move A&M down since no other team is undefeated. We have yet to see any iteration of the committee move a one-loss team above an undefeated Power 4 team.
2. Indiana (11-0)
Last week: 2 ⇔
Result: W 31-7 vs. Wisconsin
The Hoosiers were without Elijah Sarratt, but Charlie Becker filled in nicely. It was another methodical win for the Hoosiers. They needed it after struggling with Penn State last week.
1. Ohio State (10-0)
Last week: 1 ⇔
Result: W 48-10 vs. UCLA
Ohio State beat the stuffing out of UCLA with Carnell Tate sidelined and Jeremiah Smith leaving after a circus catch and three others. This was more about getting experience for bench players and establishing the run game. The CFP doesn’t have a reason to move Ohio State down, so they won’t.
