RADIO
With one round standing between us, and the year's first major, most eyes are seemingly turning toward Augusta already. However, this week's Valero Texas Open is still far from over, as Brian Harman will try to hold off red-hot players behind him on Sunday; currently holding a three-shot lead. Tomorrow's outcome doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things. However, for the former Open Champion, it could be a needed resurgence from a disappointing run since winning at Royal Liverpool in 2023.
The wind was a major factor on Saturday, making scoring more difficult at TPC San Antonio than in normal scoring conditions. There has been a wide discrepancy in how to get things done from tee to green, but one constant is the ability to make putts. Only one player inside the top 10 on the leaderboard ranks outside the top 20 in strokes gained putting on the week. With the wind slated to be just as present tomorrow, look for the best game on and around the greens to prevail.
Showdown, unlike typical golf DFS that spans the entire tournament, is a contest that focuses on each round as an individual event. Finding guys performing well on approach is king, but roster decisions that give you ownership leverage from taking riskier players on the board that haven't played their best but present a high likelihood of a bounce-back round are also important. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
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Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
Scores were noticeably higher on Saturday due to the heightened wind speeds, which will be present again tomorrow. Unfortunately, players will have to brave it from start to finish regardless of start time. The only real strategy is finding guys who are showing positive trends on and around the greens, as ball striking becomes much more difficult and misses are exacerbated.
Round 4 Strategy
The mindset for final-round showdowns is not to pull any punches. A great starting point is to take guys with a knack for hammering down the gas pedal on Sunday and have at least shown flashes of form over the first three rounds.
Remember that ownership levels will continuously drop the closer you get to the morning's first tee time, so finding the guys who will bounce back is paramount to winning big.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Corey Conners is one of the most dominant players in the field around TPC San Antonio. From winning this event twice since 2019, to never missing the cut in six previous starts, he is a force to be reckoned with. Normally known for his ball striking, the Canadian is having success in other areas this week, ranking fourth in strokes gained off the tee (+1.04) and 11th in strokes gained around the green (+0.82).
Other Options: Jordan Spieth
$9,000+
Favorite Play: Keith Mitchell is a scary man to compete against on bermudagrass surfaces. This has been his usual bread and butter his entire career, and it is on display again this week at TPC San Antonio as the former Georgia Bulldog is ranked 10th in the field in strokes gained putting (+1.32). It's also intriguing to see him gain +1.79 strokes around the green on Saturday. If he keeps that same comfortability tomorrow, he could be the biggest threat to the lead of any chaser.
"There was just no other option."
Keith Mitchell pulled out the Thai Spinner at the Texas Children's Houston Open 🔥pic.twitter.com/mpb2KTXf9h
— GOLF.com (@GOLF_com) March 28, 2025
Other Options: Denny McCarthy, J.T. Poston
$8,000+
Favorite Play: Brian Harman came to play at the Oakes Course this week. It isn't like he's established history here that's been overly impressive, but when you lead the field in strokes gained on approach (+2.00) while also ranking inside the top 5 in putting (+1.51), it usually translates to the success we've seen over the first three days. Given the weather conditions, those trying to catch Harman tomorrow will likely need him to make a few mistakes he avoided on Saturday.
Other Options: Maverick McNealy, Andrew Novak, Rickie Fowler
$7,000+
Favorite Play: It's hard not to be impressed with the bogey-free 68 that Tom Hoge shot on Saturday, which was also the lowest round of the day. He's having a nice week all the way around, but leading the field in scrambling (88.5%) and the +1.47 strokes gained putting has been the driving force. He clearly doesn't have any qualms about playing in the heavy winds, so the confidence gained from today's round should come in handy tomorrow.
Another ace at the Par 3 ... this time from Tom Hoge. #TheMasters pic.twitter.com/Rh7BLYYLI8
— Golf Central (@GolfCentral) April 5, 2023
Other Options: Ryo Hisatsune, Adam Svensson, Alejandro Tosti
$6,000+
Favorite Play: After a slow start to the week, Chad Ramey has found a spark over the last two rounds, as he ranks fifth on the week in strokes gained around the green (+1.05) and 17th in strokes gained putting (+0.95). He also gained +1.84 strokes on approach in the wind of Saturday's round. For someone like Ramey who's very much outside the realm of competing next week at Augusta National, he'll need to pull off an improbable win on Sunday to make it a reality this year.
Other Options: Francesco Molinari
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck, and may the odds ever be in your favor.
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