RADIO
After a wonderful event at Bay Hill, the PGA Tour moved to the East Coast of Florida this week for The Players Championship. As the flagship event on Tour, the action has been heavy over the first three days, with weather having a much larger effect this weekend than over the first two rounds. Numbers of both the low and high variety have been ever-present around TPC Sawgrass. The entire leaderboard can change in 30 minutes for those not paying full attention.
The wind can be anywhere from dead calm to howling, which has had a drastic effect on scores and important metrics. Strokes gained around the green has been crucial over the first three days, as five of the top seven players on the leaderboard rank inside the top 10 in that metric on the week. The importance of sound ball striking will continue to grow as the wind gets stronger, but don't look for the need to save themselves around the green to go away. The Stadium Course basically forces guys to play aggressively, putting warrant shots in precarious situations around the greens.
Showdown, unlike typical golf DFS that spans the entire tournament, is a contest that focuses on each round as an individual event. Finding guys performing well on approach is king, but roster decisions that give you ownership leverage from taking riskier players on the board that haven't played their best but present a high likelihood of a bounce-back round are also important. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
Windy conditions later in the day helped TPC Sawgrass show its teeth on Saturday, as many of the guys near the lead after Friday struggled to break par on the back nine in the third round. Sunday looks equally as exciting, with condensed tee times and threesome groupings to beat the weather forecasted later in the day. In terms of action, tomorrow should be chock-full, but for strategy between best weather draw or wind avoidance, there are no favorites or advantages here.
Round 4 Strategy
The mindset for final-round showdowns is not to pull any punches. A great starting point is to take guys with a knack for hammering down the gas pedal on Sunday and have at least shown flashes of form over the first three rounds.
Remember that ownership levels will continuously drop the closer you get to the morning's first tee time, so finding the guys who will bounce back is paramount to winning big.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: A mad Scottie Scheffler eventually means good things for DFS. At least, that is the story I have fooled myself into believing. Temper tantrums aren't his style, but there have been a few outbursts to look back on this week that either mean he is severely disgruntled about the current state of his game or feels like he is frustratingly close to figuring things out.
I tend to believe it is more the latter, as he has still played with great form in his first four events this season and is again inside the top 10 this week in strokes gained approach (+1.59), ball striking (+2.14), and GIR percentage (70.4%). Regardless of tomorrow's weather, look for him to move up the leaderboard.
Other Options: Collin Morikawa
$9,000+
Favorite Play: It was a gutsy performance on Saturday for Sepp Straka, as he was one of the few guys later in the day to get in red figures on the back nine. A -1 under par, 35 may not have impressed anyone the first two days, but his premier striking mixed with the seventh-best strokes gained around the green numbers (+1.23) in the field will pay huge dividends as he tries to chase down the lead should the wind be as rough as it is being forecasted.
SEPP STRAKA HOLE-IN-ONE AT THE U.S. OPEN 🤯🔥
(via @GolfChannel) pic.twitter.com/p0E09IAWbt
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) June 14, 2024
Other Options: Tommy Fleetwood, Daniel Berger
$8,000+
Favorite Play: Akshay Bhatia had a worse day on paper than it looked like on television during Saturday's third round. The 23-year-old hit too many wayward drives during the early part of his day (ranked 64th for Rd. 3 in strokes gained off the tee: -1.88), making it impossible to have a chance to gain any back down the stretch with how blustery the wind got.
Things are much brighter as a whole, as he ranks inside the top 15 in strokes gained putting (+1.42) and on approach (+1.23), as well as 18th in strokes gained around the green (+0.44). Tomorrow could be a defining day for the young leftie.
Other Options: Patrick Cantlay, Keegan Bradley, Robert MacIntyre
$7,000+
Favorite Play: As juicy of a group as this is, I think Alex Smalley has arguably put on the most impressive performance thus far. After going low the first two rounds, he fought through the worst of the weather on Saturday to the tune of three birdies, three bogeys, and only three shots back entering the final round.
His iron play hit a concerning wall on Saturday, losing -2.60 strokes on approach after posting +5.76 over the first two days. Other than that, the 28-year-old is performing well, leading the field in strokes gained around the green (+2.19) and ranking third in strokes gained tee to green (+3.43).
ALEX SMALLEY WITH THE THIRD HOLE IN ONE AT 17 THIS WEEK!👏pic.twitter.com/dmXxRkdRIW
— Golf Monthly (@GolfMonthly) March 12, 2023
Other Options: J.J. Spaun, Jake Knapp, Tom Hoge, Max McGreevy
$6,000+
Favorite Play: The driver has been the ultimate nemesis of Stephan Jaeger this week, as he ranks dead last among players who made the cut in strokes gained off the tee (-1.34). However, everything else about his game is working pretty well, ranking second in the field in strokes gained on approach (+2.25) and fifth in strokes gained putting (+2.07). If a wayward drive or two doesn't kill him tomorrow, look for Jaeger to be a fairly strong play.
Other Options: Bud Cauley, Danny Walker
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck, and may the odds ever be in your favor.
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