RADIO
After the hustle and bustle of the last few weeks on the PGA Tour, things slowed down a bit in terms of importance this week for the Mexico Open. A longtime professional golf event celebrating its fourth season on the Tour, it used to host much bigger names with Jon Rahm and Tony Finau having won here in the first two seasons. However, this year's field is much weaker and has produced a leaderboard full of unknown players as Aldrich Potgieter has a one-shot lead with one round left to play.
Ball striking has been the ultimate weapon, which isn't surprising given the length of this course. For context, there is only one player inside the top 10 on the leaderboard not averaging at least +1.00 in strokes gained ball striking. That makes the trends to look for tomorrow pretty cut and dry.
Showdown, unlike typical golf DFS that spans the entire tournament, is a contest that focuses on each round as an individual event. Finding guys performing well on approach is king, but roster decisions that give you ownership leverage from taking riskier players on the board that haven't played their best but present a high likelihood of a bounce-back round is also important. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
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Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
Conditions have been perfect all week, and it doesn't seem to be straying away from that on Sunday. It's worth noting that the lowest rounds have come earlier in the day in all three previous rounds, so that may be a route worth exploring. Although, tee times are much more condensed than earlier in the week.
Round 4 Strategy
The mindset for final-round showdowns is not to pull any punches. A great starting point is to take guys with a knack for hammering down the gas pedal on Sunday and have at least shown flashes of form over the first three rounds.
Remember that ownership levels will continuously drop the closer you get to the morning's first tee time, so finding the guys who will bounce back is paramount to winning big.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Coming in with the most consistent golf score-wise of anyone at the top of the leaderboard, Stephan Jaeger has found something in his ball striking since a poor performance on Thursday. He's gained +3.64 strokes in that area over his last two rounds to go along with his dominance with the flat stick this week, which ranks him 2nd in the field in strokes gained putting (+2.58).
Other Options: Aaron Rai
$9,000+
Favorite Play: Alex Smalley is having an incredible week with the driver, as he leads the field in strokes gained off the tee (+1.70). The approach numbers he was producing to start the season have simmered, though he is still averaging +0.60 strokes gained on approach this week.
It was also intriguing to see him gain +2.69 on the greens in Saturday's round, which paves the way for another big round tomorrow. Sitting five shots back, he'll need to have all cylinders firing to have a chance.
Alex Smalley hole-out for EAGLE from 111 YARDS out! 😱
📺: NBC and @peacock pic.twitter.com/AhnpEYGE0z
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) March 19, 2023
Other Options: Patrick Rodgers, Ben Griffin
$8,000+
Favorite Play: Saturday's round would have looked much better for Erik Van Rooyen had he not had two double bogeys on the scorecard. However, it's been a big turnaround from Thursday's round where he lost -0.09 strokes ball striking to gain +2.25 in the same stat over the last two days.
He's playing much better than his 69-68-68 scores reflect, but his record at Vidanta Vallarta is one of the more impressive in the field. So, he is a prime candidate for positive regression tomorrow.
Other Options: Jake Knapp, Joe Highsmith
$7,000+
Favorite Play: Alejandro Tosti was an interesting name before the week began due to his length off the tee and knack for showing up in these smaller events. Anyone who took that chance has been pleased with his performance over the first three days, as he ranks ninth in the field in strokes gained ball striking (+1.97)
Unfortunately, bad putting has been his lone struggle this week. That isn't surprising given his 131st ranking this season in strokes gained putting (-0.320). Given his tee-to-green performance thus far, tomorrow can be a big day for the 28-year-old if he can find a way to turn the putting around.
Other Options: Kevin Roy, Sami Valmaki, Isaiah Salinda, Joel Dahmen, Henrik Norlander
$6,000+
Favorite Play: Just as he did in his lone PGA Tour start last season in Myrtle Beach, Blades Brown is making the most of his week in Mexico. The 17-year-old led the field on Saturday in strokes gained on approach (+3. 16) to rank him seventh in the statistic on the week.
The young man is undoubtedly long enough to compete on the longest courses the PGA Tour can offer and is arguably the most talented player in this range. Look for him to continue his strong play tomorrow if the ball striking stays hot.
First made cut as a pro 💪
17-year-old Blades Brown will play the weekend @MexicoOpenGolf. pic.twitter.com/hB50EyWMiJ
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 22, 2025
Other Options: Justin Hastings,
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck, and may the odds ever be in your favor.
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