RADIO
The year's first major has been electric through the first three rounds. From the traditions of the Par-3 Contest, the opening ceremony, to the terrific play around Augusta National. The 2025 Masters has been everything golf fans could have wanted. Starting the final round, Rory McIlroy looks to complete the long-awaited task of completing the career grand slam with a two-shot lead over Bryson Dechambeau.
Augusta National has been as majestic as ever, and the world's best players have come to the forefront yet again. The elaborate nature of this historic property has allowed everyone to pick their poison in terms of statistics. McIlroy is blowing away the field in approach (+2.62), but many players behind him are getting things done differently. The beauty of this tournament will be on full display tomorrow, and I can't wait.
Showdown, unlike typical golf DFS that spans the entire tournament, is a contest that focuses on each round as an individual event. Finding guys performing well on approach is king, but roster decisions that give you ownership leverage from taking riskier players on the board that haven't played their best but present a high likelihood of a bounce-back round are also important. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
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Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
Conditions couldn't be more perfect to decide the 89th Masters Tournament. The course has continued to firm up over the week, and Sunday should be the same. Considering the level of play we've already seen this week and the absence of wind, Sunday should be loaded with fireworks.
Round 4 Strategy
The mindset for final-round showdowns is not to pull any punches. A great starting point is to take guys with a knack for hammering down the gas pedal on Sunday and have at least shown flashes of form over the first three rounds.
Remember that ownership levels will continuously drop the closer you get to the morning's first tee time, so finding the guys who will bounce back is paramount to winning big.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Scottie Scheffler hasn't had his best stuff this week. He looked fully in command of things on Thursday's opening round, but he's struggled to find momentum on the greens and with his iron play in rounds two and three. The short game has been his saving grace, ranking sixth in the field in strokes gained around the green (+1.42).
There has been no one better at Augusta National over the last few years than Scheffler. He'll start his day five shots back, but if there's anyone capable of making a run at this golf course, it's him.
Other Options: Collin Morikawa
$9,000+
Favorite Play: Xander Schauffele is slowly putting things together as he continues his climb back to the high level of play we saw last year. The ball striking is still there, as he ranks ninth in the field in strokes off the tee (+0.73) and on approach (+1.45), but the putting and short game are taking time to come around. They did on Saturday and should do the same in tomorrow's perfect conditions.
THIRD IN THE WORLD AND EYEING THE TOP SPOT 👀
Xander Schauffele backs himself to climb higher in the rankings despite Rory and Scottie’s dominance.#Golf #XanderSchauffele #WorldRankings #PGA
— João Neves (@jon_snow_pt) April 8, 2025
Other Options: Shane Lowry
$8,000+
Favorite Play: Corey Conners is having an incredible week around Augusta National. The Canadian is dismantling the course with his irons in typical fashion, ranking fifth in strokes gained on approach (+1.67). But his putter has also been red-hot despite missing key short putts down the stretch on Saturday as he ranks seventh in the field in strokes gained putting (+1.42).
Whether Conners can handle the magnitude of the moment remains to be seen, but statistically, he is doing everything needed to hang around and be a force tomorrow afternoon.
Other Options: Joaquin Niemann, Jason Day
$7,000+
Favorite Play: Maverick McNealy is having a nice Masters debut, as he has a real opportunity to capture a top 25 with a solid round tomorrow. The short game is leading the way, ranking third in the field in strokes gained around the green (+1.51). Putting has been an unusual struggle, but it isn't that surprising on these greens in particular.
Approach play turned around on Saturday, where he gained +1.33 strokes. If that stays on Sunday, look for McNealy to post a respectable finish.
The most important shot in golf is the next one.
Just your standard two-putt by Maverick McNealy 😬 pic.twitter.com/AoN4IrnwTf
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 16, 2024
Other Options: Patrick Reed, Michael Kim
$6,000+
Favorite Play: Watching the play of Davis Thompson this week has not been for the faint of heart. His round on Friday only contained four pars en route to a +1 over, 73. The 25-year-old is hot with his irons, ranking second in the field in strokes gained on approach (+2.12).
Putting has been the issue through the first three rounds, and though he still lost strokes on Saturday (-0.33), it was his best performance of the week. If his ball striking continues to give him opportunities, the putts will fall eventually.
Other Options: Tom Hoge, Nico Echavarria, Max Homa
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck, and may the odds ever be in your favor.
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