RADIO
The PGA Tour switched coasts as the Florida Swing began in Palm Beach Gardens for the Cognizant Classic at PGA National this week. A longstanding event at a famed property that has lost some status as a bigger event in recent years, it's still proving to give us incredible golf despite being void of the game's biggest names.
Jake Knapp will try to cap off a historic week with a win tomorrow, as he leads by one over a red-hot Michael Kim heading into the final day. Mr. 59 hasn't had quite the same pzzazz since his opening round and will need to clean things up with his approach play if he hopes to stay out in front. Nevertheless, tomorrow should be a fun day for golf fans and, hopefully, a good day for Showdown!
Showdown, unlike typical golf DFS that spans the entire tournament, is a contest that focuses on each round as an individual event. Finding guys performing well on approach is king, but roster decisions that give you ownership leverage from taking riskier players on the board that haven't played their best but present a high likelihood of a bounce-back round are also important. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
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Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
Things will get a bit more blustery on Sunday than what has been present most of the week. There still shouldn't be much concern for picking players across the board regarding starting times, but keep in mind that leaning too heavily into the leaders will have most of them playing the Bear Trap during the toughest stretch of weather.
Round 4 Strategy
The mindset for final-round showdowns is not to pull any punches. A great starting point is to take guys with a knack for hammering down the gas pedal on Sunday and have at least shown flashes of form over the first three rounds.
Remember that ownership levels will continuously drop the closer you get to the morning's first tee time, so finding the guys who will bounce back is paramount to winning big.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: If any person is suited to chase down a lead at PGA National, it's Russell Henley. His record at the Champion Course is one of the best in the field, and he is well equipped to take on the dreaded Bear Trap (-3 under par in that stretch this week).
The 35-year-old is two PBFUs (kudos if you know what that means) away from being tied for the lead. The former Georgia Bulldog isn't doing anything special, but how he plots his way around this course sets him apart. He's outside the top 20 in the field in strokes gained off the tee, on approach, and putting, but is managing to gain strokes across the board.
Other Options: Sepp Straka
$9,000+
Favorite Play: Michael Kim has been on a tear the last few weeks, with back-to-back T13s and a T2 in Phoenix. The difference this week has been that the birdies have come along with it to put him in a real position to capture his second career victory.
The stellar bogey avoidance that we've come to expect from him (ranked seventh on the season at 10.28%) is on full display right now, as he's only made one this week. The ball striking is also bouncing back from last week in Mexico, as the 31-year-old ranks seventh in the field in strokes gained off the tee (+0.87) and ninth in GIR Percentage (79.6%).
Michael Kim with a solid one-shoe play from the mud. 👀
📺 NBC & Peacock | @The_Cognizant pic.twitter.com/Rv4R4n9JVo
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) March 1, 2025
Other Options: Ben Griffin, Min Woo Lee, Jordan Spieth
$8,000+
Favorite Play: It has been a quietly impressive week for Nicolai Hojgaard, as the 23-year-old has turned in rounds of 68-68-67 over the first three days. Bogeys certainly aren't his problem since he's only made three of them, but birdies have been hard to come by, which is a problem given how frequently they are uncharacteristically being made this week at PGA National.
The putter seems to be working much better for him this week (ranking eighth in the field in strokes gained putting: +1.42) and carried him through the first two days. His strong iron play over the past two weeks was slightly off to begin this event but bounced back on Saturday to gain +1.79 strokes on approach. Look for Hojgaard to keep the momentum going tomorrow.
Other Options: Rickie Fowler, J.J. Spaun, Brian Harman
$7,000+
Favorite Play: Joel Dahmen continues to climb back toward the upper echelon of professional golf with two top 10s over his last three starts. It's also intriguing to see him performing so well at a place he traditionally hasn't over his career. The ball striking has been great, ranking fourth in the field in strokes gained on approach (+1.79), ninth in GIR Percentage (79.6%), and 20th in strokes gained off the tee (+0.52).
If the putting continues to trend upward as it has over the first three rounds, Joel Dahmen could easily capture another top 10 finish tomorrow.
From WAY downtown!
@Joel_Dahmen sinks a 53-foot eagle putt @The_Cognizant.📺 Golf Channel pic.twitter.com/82rARrkwRY
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 1, 2025
Other Options: Jhonattan Vegas, Doug Ghim, Joe Highsmith, Andrew Putnam
$6,000+
Favorite Play: One poor round on Friday where he lost -3.2 strokes on and around the green took any chance of contending away from Ricky Castillo, but the two scores sandwiched between it have been great. The 24-year-old has been putting on quite the ball-striking display, ranking sixth on the week in strokes gained off the tee (+0.89) and GIR Percentage (81.5%), ninth in driving distance (290.9), and 14th in strokes gained on approach (+1.04).
He'll have a big day tomorrow if he can find any momentum with the flat stick. Sitting at 110 in the FedEx Cup, these are the chances he must capitalize on to gain job security.
Other Options: Patrick Fishburn, Karl Vilips
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck, and may the odds ever be in your favor.
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