RADIO
After a good introduction to the Florida swing last week, the real meat and potatoes of this part of the season began this week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Bay Hill has not disappointed through three rounds, as blustery conditions on Thursday gave way to beautiful, calm conditions over Friday and Saturday. Stumbling by the 36-hole leaders gave way to Collin Morikawa charging up the leaderboard to claim a one-shot lead heading into Sunday.
The normal recipe for windy and/or soft conditions on a demanding course like Arnie's place is superb ball striking on approach. That is further proven by seven of the top 12 guys on the leaderboard ranking inside the top 15 in strokes gained on approach. With dicey conditions on the horizon, sound iron play will be paramount to making a sizeable gain up the leaderboard.
Showdown, unlike typical golf DFS that spans the entire tournament, is a contest that focuses on each round as an individual event. Finding guys performing well on approach is king, but roster decisions that give you ownership leverage from taking riskier players on the board that haven't played their best but present a high likelihood of a bounce-back round are also important. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
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Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
Things may get a little interesting down the stretch tomorrow if the wind returns in force like it did in the first round. If anyone is to make a move on the lead, it will likely need to happen on the front nine or from someone further back who gets a chance to play most of the course before it becomes a factor. That isn't an easy task since both sides are playing over par, but it's the lesser of two evils, given Mother Nature's plans.
Round 4 Strategy
The mindset for final-round showdowns is not to pull any punches. A great starting point is to take guys with a knack for hammering down the gas pedal on Sunday and have at least shown flashes of form over the first three rounds.
Remember that ownership levels will continuously drop the closer you get to the morning's first tee time, so finding the guys who will bounce back is paramount to winning big.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Justin Thomas continues a frustrating run of tournaments with a round that takes him out of contention. That one this week was Saturday's third round, where he got on a train of bogeys in the middle of his round, making five over holes six through 14. Play off the tee and on the green killed him, as he lost a combined -3.02 between the two strokes gained metrics.
While putting is still a concern, tomorrow's windier conditions will allow Thomas to let his ball striking prowess shine like it did on Thursday, when he led the field in strokes gained off the tee (+2.22) and gained +1.49 strokes on approach.
Other Options: Scottie Scheffler
$9,000+
Favorite Play: When it comes to needing strength from tee to green, there hasn't been anyone in much better form than Collin Morikawa since the start of the season. One has to expect that knocking on the door as much as he has over the last six months would eventually lead to a win, and it certainly seems like a good chance tomorrow.
The 28-year-old is leading the field in strokes gained approach (+1.87) and total ball striking (+2,80), as well as fourth strokes gained around the green (+1.24) and strokes gained off the tee (+0.94). There's nothing left to say here except that he's golfing his ball right now.
Collin Morikawa leads the field by one shot at Bay Hill.
He's looking for his first win since the 2023 ZOZO Championship. pic.twitter.com/N0gbIHWLAp
— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) March 8, 2025
Other Options: Tommy Fleetwood, Russell Henley
$8,000+
Favorite Play: Corey Conners is another guy who's popped this week due to his great work with the irons, ranking fourth in the field in strokes gained on approach (+1.44). Hopefully, leaning into notorious ball strikers doesn't come back to haunt me by tomorrow evening, but, in the Canadian's case, he is also finding success on and around the greens, ranking 10th in strokes gained around the green (+0.84) and 13th in strokes gained putting (+0.98).
Other Options: Tony Finau, Sepp Straka
$7,000+
Favorite Play: Robert MacIntyre has rounded into form nicely this week after a +2 over par 74 to begin his week. Saturday was his best performance by far, as the 28-year-old ranked ninth for the day in strokes gained on approach (+1.74) and 10th in strokes gained around the green (+0.91). As someone who grew up in Scotland, he should be used to the windy conditions that tomorrow may present, even if he struggled some on Thursday.
THE PUTT. THE CELEBRATION. THE WIN.
ROBERT MACINTYRE IS THE GENESIS SCOTTISH OPEN CHAMPION. 🏆 pic.twitter.com/4PFb4qcZXp
— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) July 14, 2024
Other Options: Daniel Berger, Si Woo Kim, J.J. Spaun, Christiaan Bezuidenhout
$6,000+
Favorite Play: Following a wild ride on Thursday that featured a double and a quadruple-bogey in the same nine holes en route to a +6 over par 78, Matt Fitzpatrick has turned things around over the past two days to shoot back-to-back 69s. Led by a red-hot putter, he leads the field in strokes gained putting (+2.28).
The questionable ball striking that has plagued him this season has taken some form over the past two rounds, as he's gained +1.04 strokes off the tee during that time and finished Saturday's round having gained +1.41 strokes on approach. If all trends continue tomorrow, look for Matty Fitz to contend for the best round of the day.
Other Options: Nick Taylor, Aaron Rai, Justin Rose, Byeong Hun An
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck, and may the odds ever be in your favor.
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