RADIO
We are finally back with the PGA Showdown article now that the PGA Tour is back in the States for the last official event of the season at the RSM Classic at Sea Island Resort. For many rank-and-file players, this is one of the most important events of the year as the conclusion of tomorrow's day will determine the number of guaranteed starts for 2025.
Vince Whaley and Maverick McNealy hold a share of the top spot at -14 under par heading into Sunday's final round. Navigating heavy winds has been a top priority through the first three rounds, and with calmer conditions in store, a shootout to close the year could be on the horizon.
Showdown, unlike typical golf DFS that spans the entire tournament, is a contest that focuses on each round as an individual event. Finding guys performing well on approach is king, but, roster decisions that give you ownership leverage from taking riskier players on the board that haven't played their best but present a high likelihood of a bounce-back round is also important. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
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Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
After sustained winds of 15 mph dominated the first two rounds, things backed off slightly on Saturday and will get even calmer on Sunday. The Seaside course has played much more difficult than the Plantation layout, with only five of the 18 holes averaging below par.
Tee times nor conditions will play a major role in finding DFS value, so positive trends should be the most important factor.
Round 4 Strategy
The mindset to have for final-round showdowns is not to pull any punches. Taking guys who have a knack for hammering down the gas pedal on Sunday and have at least shown flashes of form over the first three rounds is a great starting point.
Remember that ownership levels will continuously drop the closer you get to the morning's first tee time, so finding the guys who will bounce back is paramount to winning big.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Davis Thompson has yet to get his ball striking and putting dialed up in the same round this week. He got the Plantation course out of the way early but had two very different rounds at the Seaside course the last two days.
At the more featured venue (Seaside), Thompson produced solid strokes gained metric performances in both rounds. He gained +2.41 strokes on the greens in Friday's round, and Saturday saw him gain +1.42 strokes on approach and +2.27 strokes off the tee.
Other Options: Ben Griffin
$9,000+
Favorite Play: Maverick McNealy has been the unquestioned leader on the Seaside course through two rounds, as he is inside the top 5 in both strokes gained, putting (+2.25) and on approach (+1.82). It's easy to see why he thrives at a place like Sea Island Resort and could very well get his first career victory tomorrow.
Maverick McNealy had the perfect line for this eagle putt @WWTChampionship 💯 pic.twitter.com/mW706W2f4R
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) November 12, 2024
Other Options: Mackenzie Hughes, J.T. Poston
$8,000+
Favorite Play: Nicolas Echavarria has been on quite the run to finish the Fall Series, as the Columbian looks to record his third top-10 finish in his last four starts, going back to his win at the ZOZO Championship.
The 30-year-old has produced rounds of 67-68 at the Seaside course on Thursday and Saturday and ranks 14th in the field in strokes gained on approach (+1.19) and 17th in strokes gained putting (+1.07).
Other Options: Patrick Rodgers, Patrick Fishburn, Sam Stevens
$7,000+
Favorite Play: The shootout that could be in store tomorrow relies partly on the continued success of Vince Whaley, who's played nearly mistake-free golf on the Seaside course with only one bogey on the scorecard through two rounds.
He ranks second in the field in strokes gained putting (+2.60) and seventh in strokes gained off the tee (+1.38). A strong finish could greatly improve his outlook in 2025.
A birdie at the last and a bogey-free round gives Vince Whaley a share of the lead @TheRSMClassic 🐦
📺: GOLF Channel pic.twitter.com/jAVkca0Mvh
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) November 23, 2024
Other Options: Daniel Berger, Kevin Yu
$6,000+
Favorite Play: Stewart Cink has slowly been grinding away at a top-10 finish as he finds himself in solo eleventh place heading into Sunday. He leads the field in strokes gained tee to green (+3.64) at the Seaside course, and finding a spark on the greens could mean big things for the 51-year-old veteran.
Other Options: Joel Dahmen
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck, and may the odds ever be in your favor.
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