RADIO
The first Fall Series event kicked off this week in Napa, CA at Silverado Resort, which has hosted this event since 2014. With many of the world's top talent taking time to recharge their batteries, now is the time to get to know some of the other faces that make up the PGA Tour and up-and-comer guys who are looking to become household names. Patton Kizzire currently holds a four-stroke advantage heading into the final round, and without an implosion on his part, catching him will be a difficult thing to accomplish.
Ball striking has been a premium attribute this week, perhaps more than typical weeks, with the windy conditions that have developed over the back half of every round thus far. Five of the top seven players on the leaderboard are inside the top six in strokes gained tee to green, mostly with strong approach play.
Showdown, unlike typical golf DFS that spans the entire tournament, is a contest that focuses on each round as an individual event. Finding guys performing well on approach is king, but, roster decisions that give you ownership leverage from taking riskier players on the board that haven't played their best but present a high likelihood of a bounce-back round is also important. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
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Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
Things are set to get windy later in the day as has been the case all week, though, it hasn't had much effect on the scores. Solid ball striking has been king all week, which tends to be the case in blustery conditions. So, feel confident playing a few guys early who have shown strength of any sort with their approach play.
Round 4 Strategy
The mindset to have for final-round showdowns is not to pull any punches. Taking guys who have a knack for hammering down the gas pedal on Sunday and have at least shown flashes of form over the first three rounds is a great starting point.
Remember that ownership levels will continuously drop the closer you get to the morning's first tee time, so finding the guys who will bounce back is paramount to winning big.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Sahith Theegala's participation in this event is clearly just a way for him to stay competitively sharp ahead of his President's Cup debut, however, the comfortability he's shown at this venue can't be overstated. He is the defending champion after all.
Sitting six shots back may be a little too far out of reach without carnage happening ahead of him, but that doesn't mean he won't be worth the consideration for DFS lineups. He's remained consistent with his ball striking since the Tour Championship, ranking fifth in strokes gained off the tee (+0.86) and 10th on approach (+1.35).
If he can find a way to crack the top 10 stroke gainers on the green in the final round, Theegala could have a huge day tomorrow.
Other Options: Corey Conners
$9,000+
Favorite Play: J.J. Spaun had only made three bogeys through the first 45 holes of this event and was within a couple of shots of the lead before shooting a 40 on the back nine Saturday. Losing over two shots on approach in nine holes is a surefire way to tank any hopes of winning at the professional level, but I don't look for that to continue into Sunday's round.
He was a beast with the irons over the last five events of the 2024 regular season, averaging +1.114 strokes gained on approach during that time, and had turned in top 10 and top 15 performances in that area over the first two rounds this week.
Other Options: Tom Hoge, McKenzie Hughes
$8,000+
Favorite Play: It's hard to argue with how well Patrick Fishburn is playing after his first full season on the PGA Tour. He's hit 42 of 54 greens through three rounds and ranks 5th in strokes gained around the green (+1.12) for the rare instances of missing them.
He has all the tools to post a low number tomorrow if he builds on the approach play that has improved continuously over the first three rounds. This course is well-suited for his game, and a solid finish could give him much-needed momentum to start this fall run.
Patrick Fishburn snipes the flagstick from the bunker!! 👀
2 back, +360 live to win @DKSportsbook pic.twitter.com/ovnSsOWQNA
— Golfbet (@Golfbet) September 14, 2024
Other Options: Neal Shipley, Matt Kuchar
$7,000+
Favorite Play: Michael Thorjbornsen is one of the names to keep an eye on in the fall series, as the former Stanford Cardinal is still settling into the professional golfer life, and he currently has a great chance to get things off to a great start with another good round tomorrow.
The classic bomb and gouge has been the strategy of choice this week for the long-hitting 22-year-old, ranking 7th in the field in strokes gained off the tee (+0.85). However, the more intriguing part has been the growing proficiency in approach play after a slow start in round one.
If the effectiveness with his irons continues tomorrow and the great touch with the putter maintains, look for him to scare a top-10 finish.
Other Options: Patton Kizzire, Henrik Norlander, Ben Silverman, Lucas Glover, Bud Cauley, Greyson Sigg
$6,000+
Favorite Play: Joe Highsmith got off to a rough start in round one, but has turned things around drastically to lead the field in strokes gained on approach in Saturday's round, gaining +3.36 strokes on the field. He'll need more of it tomorrow if he plans on slipping into the top 10.
Even if the stats don't completely back up how well he's performed over the last 36 holes, keep in mind he is one bad swing removed from posting a bogey-free third-round that would have him battling for a top-five finish. He didn't get many chances to see the fourth round in 2024, but when he did, he generally performed well. Let's see what he's got tomorrow.
ACE ALERT 🚨
Joe Highsmith makes his 3rd hole-in-one of the year! pic.twitter.com/tzHtDnlxVR
— Golf on CBS ⛳ (@GolfonCBS) August 10, 2024
Other Options: Wilson Furr
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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