RADIO
It is a worldwide leaderboard at the Renaissance Club this week for the Genesis Scottish Open, with nine countries represented in the top 10 heading into the final day. As per the last few years, this tournament is being held as a hybrid event with the PGA Tour's European counterpart as a run-up to the year's final major, bringing out the world's top talent as Ludvig Aberg holds a two-shot lead over the fellow Scotsman, Robert Macintyre.
Things have been much easier going here than in years past with 18 players at double-digit under-par scores through the first three rounds; nearly double where things stood after the first three rounds in the two previous years combined. Players haven't gotten the truest form of links golf until Saturday's third round when the wind, rain, and cooler temps started to rear their heads. And with more of the same in the forecast for Sunday, it will play an important factor coming down the stretch.
Showdown, unlike typical golf DFS that spans the entire tournament, is a contest that focuses on each round as an individual event. The usual strategy is finding guys who played well the previous day(s), particularly the players who have shown strong ability with their irons. However, it's also important to make roster decisions that give you ownership and leverage over other players in your contest. This is usually done by taking riskier players on the board that haven't played their best but present a high likelihood of a bounce-back round. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
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Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
After abnormally calm and warm days in rounds one and two, things turned more gnarly for Saturday's round, but it wasn't enough to halt scores as Bobby Mac fired a solid -7 under, 63 to put him in a great position to win his national open. Sunday's final round will feature similar conditions as the previous day minus the rain since groups aren't teeing off until 9:14 AM local time. But with the wind becoming more of a concern as the day goes on, guys in the early to middle of the pack will likely get the most scorable conditions.
Round 4 Strategy
The mindset to have for final-round showdowns is not to pull any punches. Taking guys who have a knack for hammering down the gas pedal on Sunday and have at least shown flashes of form over the first three rounds is a great starting point. Remember that ownership levels will continuously drop the closer you get to the morning's first tee time, so finding the guys who will bounce back is paramount to winning big.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: After a slow start to his week, Xander Schauffele has put together solid rounds of 65 (-5) and 67 (-3) to sneak inside the top 20 starting the final round. The current PGA Champion has come alive with his irons since Thursday to be ranked 8th in the field in strokes gained on approach (+1.52), and since losing 1.86 strokes off the tee in round one, he has rebounded with back-to-back rounds being ranked inside the top 20 in the field off the tee. He's likely too far back to make a legitimate run at the leaders, but another top 10 is certainly within reach.
When you play alternate shot with @XSchauffele… he’s probably going to intentionally put you in a tough spot just because @bobdoessports @RobbyBerger 😂 pic.twitter.com/OJz7mfm811
— Callaway Golf (@CallawayGolf) April 2, 2024
Other Options: Ludvig Aberg has squandered a few opportunities already this season, but the control he's shown through the first three rounds suggests he'll be a hard one to chase down tomorrow.
$9,000+
Favorite Play: Tommy Fleetwood is absolutely striping the ball from tee to green through three rounds, as he led the field in round three in strokes gained on approach (+3.64). For the tournament, he's ranked sixth in that statistic (+1.78), and strokes gained off the tee (+1.03). If he can find ways to get the ball in the hole, it could result in a strong finish to build momentum for next week's Open Championship.
Other Options: Sungjae Im
$8,000+
Favorite Play: Alex Noren struggled on Saturday en route to a +1 over, 71. There wasn't anything particularly to blame for his flat performance either; it was just a bad day at the office. His 25th rank in the field in strokes gained tee to green (+0.84) is enough to suggest he's doing enough work outside of the green to warrant some consideration for the 22nd ranked player on the PGA Tour in round four scoring average (69.00).
Other Options: Robert Macintyre, Nicolai Hojgaard
$7,000+
Favorite Play: Haotong Li has played two solid rounds out of three this week as he stumbled through Friday's round, but even then, he's managed to put himself in position to secure a top 10 with a good round on Sunday. He ranked first in the field in strokes gained off the tee (+2.03) in round three, and ninth in strokes gained tee to green (+2.48). His seventh rank against the field in strokes gained from tee to green (+2.58) says that all he needs to climb further up the leaderboard is a better time on the greens.
One-handed AND one-footed putting from @haotong_li 😮
Through a gate as well!
Follow @GolfDigestME for more pic.twitter.com/exy7vUwhnr
— Golf Digest ME (@GolfDigestME) January 10, 2024
Other Options: Cameron Davis, Adam Scott, Matteo Manassero
$6,000+
Favorite Play: Jorge Campillo has posted consistent -2 and -3 under-par scores through the first three rounds. He ranks 18th in the field in strokes gained around the green (+0.49), 19th in strokes gained tee to green (+1.45), and 22nd in strokes gained on approach (+0.74). What's more impressive is his 81.5% GIR, which is good for third-best in the field. Things get dicey in this area of the player board, but you'd be hard-pressed to find more consistency anywhere else in this range.
Other Options: Maximilian Kieffer
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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