RADIO
Scottie Scheffler sits atop the leaderboard once again, this time Bryson DeChambeau and Max Homa sit alongside him after 36 holes of wind swept major golf. With 60 golfers making the cut, we get a lot of our favorites playing the weekend.
With the wind blowing as hard as it has the course has really dried out by the afternoon, presenting over a shot advantages to those going off in the AM vs PM each day.
The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher-owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitating toward, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.
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Weather, Course Conditions & Tee Times
Round 3 Strategy
There have been significant wave advantages the first two days with the AM tee times getting the easiest conditions. Since we have had two days of golf, the guys who just made the cut will get the softer, slightly less windy conditions tomorrow. And because they barely made the cut, they have not been playing the greatest golf so ownership should be lower on them too.
Showdown Model
Below are the power rankings of the golfers who we have our eye on for Round 3. The full-field model is available to premium subscribers HERE. It includes ownership projections, pre-event rankings, round-specific scoring averages, birdie percentages, weighted approach ratings, projected points, and GPP/Cash Ratings for tomorrow's showdown slate.
***Full disclosure: The ownership numbers are based on the $5 SINGLE ENTRY MAX, which is important to note as ownership in showdown can vary from contest to contest depending on field size and entry fee. However, it should provide you with a guide to who will be the most owned and how those around them shake out.
$10,000+
Favorite play: Jon Rahm is my GPP guy, as he is capable of the round of the day, but has been playing really poorly so far. He gets an early tee time and it's time to bounce back as the reigning champ.
Other options: Rory McIlroy is due to go flying up the leaderboard isn't he?
$9,000+
Favorite play: Joaquin Niemann is just giving me the vibes that after making the cut at +4, he shoots a low round to get himself closer to a top-10 finish. Tomorrow should be the easiest conditions he gets to play Augusta so far this week with hardly any wind.
Other options: Hideki Matsuyama
$8,000+
Favorite play: Cameron Smith shot 72 in round 2 with two three putts ... if he can get his stuff figured out on the greens and give himself enough birdie looks tomorrow, he is still absolutely capable to get within a shot or two of the leader by the end of the day. He has been low owned all week for what kind of performance he has put forth.
Other options: Will Zalatoris, Cameron Young
$7,000+
Favorite play: Sahith Theegala has not had THAT round that we have come to know from him. He is due to make a slew of birdies and make his way towards the top-10 in a major again.
Other options: Matt Fitzpatrick, Russell Henley, Patrick Reed, Tom Kim, Rickie Fowler
$6,000+
Favorite play: Jake Knapp in some calmer conditions having played Augusta twice in competition now, should be gaining confidence at a course that should suit his style of play once he gets comfortable on this course.
Other options: Phil Mickelson
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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