RADIO
Tyrrell Hatton went scorched earth and played such high quality golf today that we actually saw the Englishman smile on the golf course? A smile from Hatton is almost as rare a citing as the 8 strokes he gained on the field today, shooting an 8 under 64. Rory McIlroy leads the field in putting for the week, while Carl Yuan leads the RBC Canadian Open on the merits of a driver that has gained as many strokes as peak Gary Player would have, while also rocking the walky-follow-through that Mr. Player was known for back in his prime.
This article is going to take a look at showdown slates after each completed round. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric. More often than not, this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player. Every now and then when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article, we are going to break down the previous round's top performers and duds and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.
The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher-owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitating towards, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.
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Round 2 Analysis
Best Scores
Ownership
Going into Round 2, these are the color codes we will be using to identify who we want to target. Think of it as a traffic light with four colors. Stop at mega chalk and go when we see leverage that makes sense.
By taking a look at yesterday's ownership, we can get an idea of where people will be willing to go in Round 2 (DK points include finishing position).
- Mega chalk: A popular player who played well yesterday.
- Chalk: a) A popular player who played okay yesterday, b) A less popular player who played well yesterday.
- Pivots: a) A popular player who played poorly yesterday, b) A less popular player who played okay yesterday.
- Leverage: A less popular player who played poorly yesterday.
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Round 3 Weather
Showdown Model
Below are the power rankings of the golfers who we have our eye on for Round 3. The full-field model is available to premium subscribers HERE. It includes pre-event rankings, round-specific scoring averages, birdie percentages, weighted approach ratings, and ownership projections for tomorrow's showdown slate.
***Full disclosure: The ownership numbers are based on the PGA TOUR SHOWDOWN $6K CADDIE [SINGLE ENTRY], which is important to note as ownership in showdown can vary from contest to contest depending on field size and entry fee. However, it should provide you with a guide to who will be the most owned and how those around them shake out.
$10,000+
Tyrrell Hatton is playing some really impressive golf right now and although the putter most likely won't gain as many strokes as it did today, he is still top-5 in ball striking this week and entered the week with a top-5 BoB%. He will be pushing 30% ownership but does provide some solid consistency in the $10k range.
$9,000+
Justin Rose and Matt Fitzpatrick will be the two Englishmen we lean on in the $9k range, with Rose most likely garnering a little more ownership. We have seen Fitz go nuclear recently especially a week ago at the Memorial. Sahith Theegala is an average round OTT away from making a lot of birdies and now that he has made the cut maybe he can swing a little more confidently off the tee?
$8,000+
The ownership leverage will come in the $8k range, with Matt Kuchar, Ludvig Aberg, Eric Cole, and Michael Kim as they all sit outside the top-30 on the leaderboard.
$7,000+
Akshay Bhatia, Nick Taylor, Brandon Wu, Dylan Wu and Carson Young will be some value plays and as a result may see extra ownership as a result, but are still pivots off of Nate Lashley, C.T. Pan, and Lee Hodges who will all see double digit ownership in R3 slates.
Will Gordon and Alex Smalley will be the low owned upper $7k plays who should see less than 5% ownership in tomorrow's slate. Scott Piercy, Patton Kizzire, Sam Bennett, and Ryan Gerrard provide some additional support less than $7,200 if looking to roll out some stars and scrubs.
$6,000+
MJ Daffue played some impressive golf to make the cut. Sung Kang has a solid R3 scoring average for a $6,400 golfer and also is above average in birdie %.
Featured Group Matchup Bets
If you are a golf nerd like me and land up watching a lot of the featured group coverage on ESPN+, this new segment of the article is going to consist of Maniac Magic by making a bet on each of the featured groups just to have a little sweat while watching the morning coverage. If you are looking for much more strategic and reliable matchups, check out @TeeOffSports R3 matchups here. This part of the article is straight-up degenerate as we are forcing pocket money plays simply to enhance our golf viewing experience.
Sahith Theegala over Cameron Young +105: This matchup is 50 50 to me so why not roll with the plus money. One guy can't putt, while the other can't drive. If either get that part of their games out of reverse they could be slate breakers.
The books don't want to hang a Fitz vs Weir matchup out there as the former Canadian super star and current President Cup captain is playing well above his baseline one would assume and a fair number would probably -350 Fitz.
Justin Rose vs Nate Lashley -190 is a bit of juice to lay, but despite Lashley hitting his irons out of his mind right now, Rose seems to not have really gotten out of 2nd gear just yet. Feel free to parlay this with the Theegala matchup if you not interested in laying this kind of juice.
Mark Hubbard vs Rory McIlroy +205 is going to be the underdog matchup we chase tomorrow. Rory is keeping his head above water by sinking every putt under the sun, leading the field in putting this week, while Hubbard leads the field in strokes gained on approach. We will take our chances hoping to see some putting regression from Rory and laying -275 just seems a little too steep of a toll to enjoy a degenerate Saturday afternoon sweat.
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership or points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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