RADIO
The top of this leaderboard is looks like we just hit the randomize button on the field. The first non-surprising name shows up in T6 where Shane Lowery, Rory McIlroy and Cameron Young frequent the leaderboard. Bud Cauley leads the Cognizant Classic field in only his second start since returning to the tour after a three-year injury hiatus. I truly remarkable story. IHe is currently gaining +5.5 short game so far, which is going to be tough to keep up if his irons and driver don't arrive to the party soon.
Austin Eckroat and Garrick Higgo find themselves in 2nd place with Higgo leading the field in putting through two rounds and Eckroat ranking inside the top-10 off the tee and on approach. His style of play seems the most sustainable of the trio at the top and could serve him well if he plans to hold off the Irish Laurel and Hardy and others.
The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher-owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitating toward, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.
Round 2 Analysis
Winning Lineup
DK Points Leaders
Ownership Leaders
Weather & Course Conditions
Round 3 Strategy
It appears that getting 144 golfers to complete all their holes in an 12 hour window is too difficult for the tour to achieve. As a result, we are now left with a few golfers who will have to finish up their round in the morning before tee times can be scheduled. It looks like they plan on having the first tee time at 815AM which would give about a dozen or so golfers some calmer wind for a few holes before it picks up and blows at a steady pace all day. Finding low owned golfers throughout the tee time ranges will be how we once again try to find our edge.
Showdown Model
Below are the power rankings of the golfers who we have our eye on for Round 3. The full-field model is available to premium subscribers HERE (code: "MANIAC" saves you 10%). It includes ownership projections, pre-event rankings, round-specific scoring averages, birdie percentages, weighted approach ratings, projected points, and GPP/Cash Ratings for tomorrow's showdown slate.
***Full disclosure: The ownership numbers are based on the $1 20 ENTRY MAX, which is important to note as ownership in showdown can vary from contest to contest depending on field size and entry fee. However, it should provide you with a guide to who will be the most owned and how those around them shake out.
$10,000+
Favorite play: Nobody... (nervously looks around)
$9,000+
Favorite play: Tom Kim has gained the third most strokes off the tee this week. He has not really showed us the upside he possesses with his irons or his putter. If we can get TNT Tom tomorrow, $9,500 could be the price we pay for the best golfer on the course. That's $2,400 cheaper than Rory. I will likely have Tom in 2/3rds of my lineups!
Other options: J.T Poston, Russell Henley
$8,000+
Favorite play: Matthieu Pavon is the reason we are leaving the $10k range alone as he is likely going to be rather chalky tomorrow. He is striking his irons exceptionally well through two rounds but really hasn't putted to the level we saw earlier in the year. If we can continue to hit the irons like he has this year and start to make some putts tomorrow, Pavon will be climbing that leaderboard like an Eiffel tower Daredevil I will likely have him in 2/3rds of my lineups tomorrow, with Tom Kim stacked in half of them.
Other options: Keith Mitchell, Chris Kirk
$7,000+
Favorite play: Billy Horschel has the 2nd-best R2 strokes gained average. When he makes the weekend the old school in him really steps it up on Saturdays. He made the cut and is playing good golf in Florida at a $7,400 price tag. Its go time Billy!
Other options: Justin Rose, Lucas Glover, Robert McIntyre, Ryan Fox (Ryo Hitsatsune if he makes birdie on 18 tomorrow)
$6,000+
Favorite play: Ben Silverman's good shot rate in his limited starts on the PGA Tour are really making the model fall in love with him. The KFT rookie also plays rather decent golf in R3 and at $6,900 he is going to be our favorite $6k option!
Other options: Sam Ryder, Alexander Bjork, Jorge Campillo, Chad Ramey, Rico Hoey
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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