Round 3 - PGA DFS Showdown Picks - 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational

Hello, Rotoballers! I hope everyone is doing well and is ready for another exciting year of PGA DFS. Showdown has returned for another season on DraftKings alongside the PGA Tour, and we’re here to help guide you, whether you’re looking to continue your journey from where you left off in 2024 or are new to this particular DFS format.

The PGA Tour returns to Bay Hill this week for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. A famed event with tons of history, the weekend is shaping up to be another thriller as Shane Lowry heads into Saturday with a two-stroke advantage over Wyndham Clark. The first two rounds have been very different from one another, with Thursday having 15-25mph winds and Friday being much calmer. With the weather slated to have a similar jekyll-and-hyde feel over the weekend, there is still a long way to go before crowning a champion.

Unlike standard golf DFS, which covers the entire tournament, Showdown focuses on each round as an individual event. It's crucial to find players who excel on approach shots, but it’s also important to make roster decisions that provide ownership leverage by selecting riskier players who may not have been performing their best recently but could have a strong bounce-back round. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.

Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times

Given the possible weather that could roll in on Sunday, tomorrow's third round may be the best chance for guys looking to make a run. Posting a low number at Bay Hill is always difficult. Let the wind get up like we saw Thursday, and it's next to impossible. In terms of finding the heavy hitters, the middle-of-the-pack guys are likely the juiciest group to take your shot on climbing the leaderboard.

Round 3 Strategy

The key to success in showdowns is to look for ball strikers who can have a standout putting performance. Having two exceptional putting days in a row is quite challenging, so we should focus on golfers who have been consistent with their approach shots and created birdie opportunities but fell short in converting them.

It’s also beneficial to target players who need to improve their position on the leaderboard, as they often push harder on moving day. Additionally, golfers who have shown some positive form in the first two rounds are great candidates to consider.

Keep in mind that ownership levels tend to decrease as the morning's first tee time approaches, so identifying players who are likely to bounce back is crucial for achieving significant wins.

$10,000+

Favorite Play:  Rory McIlroy has looked more like the golfer of old in 2025. More clear-headed, and rounds don't seem to be determined so much by the putter. That has especially been the case through two rounds at Bay Hill, as the Northern Irishman is having an off week with the typically strong play off the tee we're used to seeing, only averaging +0.26 in strokes gained off the tee.

Given that surprising realization and the fact he is still tied for fifth and just four shots back makes for high hopes heading into the weekend.

Other Options: Scottie Scheffler

$9,000+

Favorite Play:  Collin Morikawa was a personal favorite coming into the week simply because he's still one of the PGA Tour's best ball strikers, as his track record at Bay Hill is admittedly not anything to get excited about. Blame it on the bad putting or the fact that two of his four attempts have been years with a score eclipsing double-digit under par totals, either excuse will do.

His lone quality finish was a T9 in 2020, where the winning score was -4 under par. A more difficult Bay Hill plays more to Morikawa's strengths, as his second-place rank in strokes gained around the green (+1.76) and seventh-place ranking (+2.00) in strokes gained ball striking are clear evidence.

Collin Morikawa entered this week averaging more than 4 bogeys/worse per round in his career at Bay Hill.

He has the fewest in the field (2) through 2 rounds this week after playing his last 27 holes without a dropped shot.

— Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) March 7, 2025

Other Options: Xander Schauffele, Hideki Matsuyama

$8,000+

Favorite Play:  Had Keegan Bradley not made a double-bogey on the 15th hole on Friday, we would probably be looking at him with some of the best odds to run down the lead over the weekend. A big day tomorrow could easily put him right back in position to do so, as he is ranked fourth in the field in strokes gained on approach (+1.89). He's proven himself to be one of the better wind players on tour, so having a solid third round could have him smelling blood come Sunday if Mother Nature has her way.

Other Options: Wyndham Clark, Sungjae Im

$7,000+

Favorite Play:  Michael Kim has been a DFS darling for the past few events, and this week at Bay Hill looks no different. After a rough first day, he returned on Friday to post a -3 under par 69 that included a double-bogey on the ninth hole after starting with four birdies through his first five holes.

That gut punch may have stalled the momentum of the round, but it doesn't take away that he finished the day ranked third in strokes gained on approach (+2.21) and 13th in strokes gained around the green (+1.16). With similar conditions on deck for tomorrow, play Kim with confidence.

Michael Kim with a solid one-shoe play from the mud. 👀

📺 NBC & Peacock | @The_Cognizant pic.twitter.com/Rv4R4n9JVo

— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) March 1, 2025

Other Options: Si Woo Kim, 

$6,000+

Favorite Play:  Playing in his 20th API, Justin Rose has spent quite some time at Bay Hill over his career but has never broken through to slip on the red cardigan. While that likely will continue this week, there is still some magic left in the tank for the longtime pro, especially if the play that has him ranked fifth in the week in strokes gained putting (+2.05) and seventh in strokes gained on approach (+1.54) continues.

Other Options: Byeong Hun An, Austin Eckroat

Showdown Optimizer

The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to use it, there is a video at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.

Good luck, and may the odds ever be in your favor.

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

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— RotoBaller PGA (@RotoBallerPGA) August 10, 2020

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