RADIO
Jens Christenson Round 3 PGA DFS showdown slate picks for the 2025 John Deere Classic. His top in-tournament DFS lineup picks and top plays for DraftKings and FanDuel.
Happy 4th of July, Rotoballers! I hope everyone is doing well and is ready for another exciting year of PGA DFS. Showdown has returned for another season on DraftKings alongside the PGA Tour, and we’re here to help guide you, whether you’re looking to continue your journey from where you left off in 2024 or are new to this particular DFS format.
As we approach the weekend, Chris Gotterup climbed the leaderboard with the low round of the day by carding a 9-under 61 in the second round, bringing him to 11-under through two rounds. Harry Hall has also been playing well and is in second, two strokes behind Gotterup at 9-under. Close behind are Marco Penge and Ludvig Aberg, both at 8-under. Following them are Matti Schmid, Nick Taylor, Keith Mitchell, Rory McIlroy, Sepp Straka, and Jake Knapp, who are all tied for sixth at 7-under.
Unlike standard golf DFS, which covers the entire tournament, Showdown focuses on each round as an individual event. It's crucial to find players who excel on approach shots, but it’s also important to make roster decisions that provide ownership leverage by selecting riskier players who may not have been performing their best recently but could have a strong bounce-back round. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
Tomorrow's weather is predicted to be similar to today's, featuring light winds in the morning that will pick up in the early afternoon. During the first round, the course played 0.07 strokes under par, and in the second round, it was 0.15 strokes under par.
Round 3 Strategy
The key to success in showdowns is to look for ball strikers who can have a standout putting performance. Having two exceptional putting days in a row is quite challenging, so we should focus on golfers who have been consistent with their approach shots and created birdie opportunities but fell short in converting them.
It’s also beneficial to target players who need to improve their position on the leaderboard, as they often push harder on moving day. Additionally, golfers who have shown some positive form in the first two rounds are great candidates to consider.
Keep in mind that ownership levels tend to decrease as the morning's first tee time approaches, so identifying players who are likely to bounce back is crucial for achieving significant wins.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Tommy Fleetwood made a strong comeback today after a disappointing first round. He lost 1.379 strokes on approach and 0.295 strokes putting in Round 1. However, in Round 2, he gained 2.561 strokes on approach, although he lost 0.703 strokes putting. It’s unusual for Tommy to lose strokes on the green, especially in consecutive rounds. He may end up being lower-owned in this salary range, but if he can execute on approach like he did today, we can hope he’ll sink a few more birdies.
Don’t be afraid to dream a little bigger 🖼️#GenesisScottishOpen #RolexSeries #FedExCup pic.twitter.com/Zf4gisd2ej
— Genesis Scottish Open (@ScottishOpen) July 11, 2025
$9,000+
Favorite Play: Ryan Fox has been outstanding with his approach game during the first two rounds. In Round 1, he gained 2.489 strokes on approach and followed that by gaining 1.789 strokes on approach in Round 2. Similar to Tommy Fleetwood, Fox could be higher on the leaderboard if he had been better with the putter. He lost strokes putting in both rounds, losing 0.017 strokes in the first round and 0.635 in the second round. Despite his struggles with putting, Fox's approach game is clearly on point, and he has managed to make 10 birdies across the first two rounds. This is someone I want in my lineup.
Other Options: Harry Hall, Viktor Hovland
$8,000+
Favorite Play: Sepp Straka is currently leading the field in total strokes gained through the first two rounds but hasn't executed as well with his approach shots as we have seen him do throughout the season. In Round 1, he lost 0.209 strokes on approach, while in Round 2, he gained 0.125 strokes. He ranks third on tour this season for strokes gained on approach and has made 10 birdies over the first two rounds. If he can improve his approach game tomorrow, he should be in our lineups because he has the potential to score low.
Other Options: Taylor Pendrith, Matt Fitzpatrick, Sam Burns
WATCH: How Rory finished with 3x Birdies to end his first round on Thursday!#GenesisScottishOpen #RolexSeries #FedExCup
pic.twitter.com/8QH1YQUsyN— Genesis Scottish Open (@ScottishOpen) July 11, 2025
$7,000+
Favorite Play: Harris English began his second round with an eagle on the 10th hole, his first hole of the day. His approach play has been solid; he could be higher on the leaderboard if he had been better with the flat stick in his first round, where he lost 3.524 strokes putting. In Round 1, he gained 1.392 strokes on approach, and he improved further in Round 2, gaining 2.658 strokes on approach. Although he hasn't gained much off the tee, he has been accurate, hitting 61.54% of fairways through the first two rounds. I want a player in my lineup who can find fairways, hit greens, and give himself opportunities for birdies.
Other Options: Aaron Rai, Victor Perez, Kevin Yu
$6,000+
Favorite Play: Yannik Paul had a bogey-free round until the last hole today, playing consistently with both his approach play and putting over the first two rounds. In Round 1, he gained 1.681 strokes on approach and 0.877 strokes putting. In Round 2, he gained 1.341 strokes on approach and 1.052 strokes putting. Although he hasn't been very accurate off the tee, he has still found ways to stick the green, hitting 80.56% of greens in regulation through the first two rounds. I will definitely take a player who has made 10 birdies and only carded 2 bogeys in the first two rounds, especially in this salary range.
Other Options: Antoine Rozner, Jesper Svensson, Sebastian Soderberg, Alejandro Del Rey
Guy I'm Playing That You Shouldn't
This will be an every-week addition to my article where I'll pick a golfer who I believe has shown he can go nuclear but has every chance he could dud and should generally be reserved for the largest field GPP tournaments.
Byeong Hun An began his second round with a bogey on five of his first nine holes; however, his strong performance around the greens kept him in contention for the weekend. In the first round, he gained 2.924 strokes around the greens and followed that up in Round 2 with an additional gain of 0.973 strokes. Despite making only eight birdies over the first two rounds, we know he has the ability to make birdies and go low. He should also have an early tee time, and more favorable conditions. I believe it's worth taking a chance on him, especially in this section of the article.
It’s all to play for this weekend! 🏆🔥#GenesisScottishOpen #RolexSeries #FedExCup pic.twitter.com/BBxWclcPiK
— Genesis Scottish Open (@ScottishOpen) July 11, 2025
This lineup is for demonstration purposes only.
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to use it, there is a video at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck, and may the odds ever be in your favor.
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