RADIO
Hello, Rotoballers! I hope everyone is doing well and is ready for another exciting year of PGA DFS. Showdown has returned for another season on DraftKings alongside the PGA Tour, and we’re here to help guide you, whether you’re looking to continue your journey from where you left off in 2024 or are new to this particular DFS format.
The PGA Tour is returning to TPC Sawgrass this week for The PLAYERS Championship, often referred to as the "5th Major." This prestigious event has a rich history, and the first round has provided the usual unpredictability we expect from The PLAYERS Championship. Notably, the course played tougher for the morning wave this time, which contrasts with recent trends where the morning wave typically has scored better compared to the afternoon. I’m considering this round an anomaly and plan to primarily focus on players who are in the morning wave tomorrow. Lucas Glover, J.J. Spaun, and Camilo Villegas are all tied at 6-under after the first round. Villegas nearly surprised us by finishing Round 1 at 7-under, earning the outright lead, but he bogeyed his 16th hole, leaving him tied for the lead instead.
Unlike standard golf DFS, which covers the entire tournament, Showdown focuses on each round as an individual event. It's crucial to find players who excel on approach shots, but it’s also important to make roster decisions that provide ownership leverage by selecting riskier players who may not have been performing their best recently but could have a strong bounce-back round. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
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Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
The weather tomorrow is expected to be similar to what we experienced today. As I mentioned earlier, the course played more easily in the afternoon. Given the slightly calmer conditions and softer greens in the morning, I will primarily focus on golfers who are playing in the morning wave. These conditions should create scoring opportunities for golfers who can position themselves well off the tee and execute their approach shots effectively. However, as we’ve seen in the past, TPC Sawgrass can present significant challenges throughout the day.
Round 2 Strategy
The key to success in showdowns is to look for ball strikers who can have a standout putting performance. Having two exceptional putting days in a row is quite challenging, so we should focus on golfers who have been consistent with their approach shots and created birdie opportunities but fell short in converting them.
It’s also beneficial to target players who need to improve their position on the leaderboard, as they often push harder on moving day. Additionally, golfers who have shown some positive form in the first two rounds are great candidates to consider.
Keep in mind that ownership levels tend to decrease as the morning's first tee time approaches, so identifying players who are likely to bounce back is crucial for achieving significant wins.
When's X going to let us post more than four photos?
Best frames from Thursday. 📸#THEPLAYERS pic.twitter.com/izSbe2cLdj
— THE PLAYERS (@THEPLAYERS) March 14, 2025
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Scottie Scheffler appears to have recovered from the hand injury that caused him to miss the start of the 2025 season. In Round 1, he was exceptional with his approach shots but struggled on the greens. He gained 2.17 strokes on approach but lost 0.44 strokes in putting. Most importantly, Scheffler gained 3.73 strokes tee to green in Round 1, and I fully expect him to be locked in and score low tomorrow. Can Scheffler pull off the mystical 3-Peat?
Other Options: Ludvig Aberg
$9,000+
Favorite Play: Patrick Cantlay played consistently throughout the day, finishing Round 1 with a solid 3-under 69 and only one bogey. He gained 1.07 strokes on approach shots and excelled on the greens, gaining 1.63 strokes putting. While we usually look for golfers who have had an off day with their putting—hoping they can improve in the next round—Cantlay is a player we can trust to avoid unforced errors. He knows when to play conservatively and take pars but is also aggressive and attacks the pin when needed. Additionally, since he is part of the morning wave, I believe he'll stick it close to the pin and get birdie looks. A 3-under with just one bogey at TPC Sawgrass is something I would take ANY DAY.
Other Options: Tommy Fleetwood
$8,000+
Favorite Play: Shane Lowry missed five putts from within 10 feet in Round 1 and still managed to post a 70. He gained 0.33 strokes on approach but lost a WHOPPING 3.24 strokes putting. Lowry is EXACTLY the type of golfer I'm looking to include in my Round 2 showdown lineups tomorrow. Although he tees off in the afternoon wave, he's shown he has the ability to score even while missing those five putts inside 10 feet (Yes, I'll say it again). He gained 3.53 strokes tee to green, which is only slightly lower than Scottie Scheffler's. At the very least, Lowry will continue to create birdie opportunities, and that’s all we can ask for—though it would be nice if he could convert a few more of them.
Other Options: Corey Conners, Daniel Berger
$7,000+
Favorite Play: Denny McCarthy did exactly what we have come to expect from him in 2025. He was solid on approach but not spectacular gaining 1.15 strokes. Most importantly, McCarthy is one of the best players on tour with the flat stick, as he gained 2.26 strokes putting in Round 1. If McCarthy dials in his approach game tomorrow, even marginally, he could card the low round of the day and head into the weekend at the top of the leaderboard. Oh and he'll be playing in the morning wave as well (this is common theme as I'm sure you've noticed, so it's worth repeating).
Other Options: Si Woo Kim, J.J. Spaun, Akshay Bhatia
Precision required. #THEPLAYERS pic.twitter.com/WP0Hcdc3mF
— THE PLAYERS (@THEPLAYERS) March 13, 2025
$6,000+
Favorite Play: Max McGreevy has played lights out so far and HE HASN'T FINISHED HIS FIRST ROUND. McGreevy is 5 under and still has two holes to play to complete his first round. He'll be able to go out and warm up for his second round with his final two Round 1 holes. Excluding his final two holes, McGreevy has gained 2.66 strokes on approach and 0.46 strokes putting. McGreevy and the flat stick go together like peanut butter and jelly (I'm more of a peanut butter guy, personally), but you get the point. McGreevy already has one top 10 in 2025 and if he plays anything close to how he's played so far in this first round he'll add another.
Other Options: Justin Rose, Adam Hadwin
Guy I'm Playing That You Shouldn't
This will be an every-week addition to my article where I'll pick a golfer who I believe has shown he can go nuclear but has every chance he could dud and should generally be reserved for the largest field GPP tournaments.
Ryan Gerard has been playing excellent golf as of late. He has three Top 15 finishes in his last four starts (he missed the cut in Puerto Rico last week) and is first round this week has been solid. He still has two holes to play (17 and 18) to complete his first round but he's so far gained 0.51 strokes on approach and 1.44 strokes on approach. Gerard has gained strokes on approach in every one of his starts this year outside of the Puerto Rico Open and the only tournament he's lost strokes putting in was at the Cognizant Classic and he still finished T25.
How it stands at Thursday’s end. #THEPLAYERS pic.twitter.com/ndi8Czo25T
— THE PLAYERS (@THEPLAYERS) March 14, 2025
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to use it, there is a video at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck, and may the odds ever be in your favor.
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