RADIO
Hello, Rotoballers! I hope everyone is doing well and is ready for another exciting year of PGA DFS. Showdown has returned for another season on DraftKings alongside the PGA Tour, and we’re here to help guide you, whether you’re looking to continue your journey from where you left off in 2024 or are new to this particular DFS format.
The afternoon wave experienced slightly windier conditions compared to the morning wave today, which was reflected in the scoring. The morning wave played just under half a stroke better than the afternoon wave in Round 1. Alejandro Tosti is tied with Ryan Gerard, Keith Mitchell, and Taylor Pendrith at the top of the leaderboard, all sitting at 5-under heading into Round 2 tomorrow. Additionally, there are eight players close behind, all tied at 4-under.
Unlike standard golf DFS, which covers the entire tournament, Showdown focuses on each round as an individual event. It's crucial to find players who excel on approach shots, but it’s also important to make roster decisions that provide ownership leverage by selecting riskier players who may not have been performing their best recently but could have a strong bounce-back round. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
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Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
The weather forecast for tomorrow looks similar to what we saw in Round 1. The golfers who tee off in the afternoon wave will experience scattered showers and windier conditions.
Round 2 Strategy
The key to success in showdowns is to look for ball strikers who can have a standout putting performance. Having two exceptional putting days in a row is quite challenging, so we should focus on golfers who have been consistent with their approach shots and created birdie opportunities but fell short in converting them.
It’s also beneficial to target players who need to improve their position on the leaderboard, as they often push harder on moving day. Additionally, golfers who have shown some positive form in the first two rounds are great candidates to consider.
Keep in mind that ownership levels tend to decrease as the morning's first tee time approaches, so identifying players who are likely to bounce back is crucial for achieving significant wins.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Scottie Scheffler carded a bogey-free 3-under in the first round. While he lost 0.44 strokes on approach, he gained 0.40 strokes around the green, but it was his putting that really stood out today. He gained 2.53 strokes putting in Round 1. Scheffler will tee off in the morning wave, which should provide him with slightly calmer conditions than he faced today. Do I think he will putt as well as he did today? No, but he doesn't need to; if he improves marginally on his approach and around the greens. I expect Scheffler will give himself plenty of birdie chances in Round 2.
Another successful @CadenceBank Pro-Am is in the books!📚 pic.twitter.com/MwsbTNS71f
— Texas Children’s Houston Open (@TCHouOpen) March 27, 2025
$9,000+
Favorite Play: Wyndham Clark wasn't his typical self today; he posted only two bogeys and three birdies. Typically, we see him have a more erratic day, often including six birdies and four bogeys, or the reverse. For showdown contests, the crucial factor is that he made birdies and created birdie opportunities for himself. Despite losing 2.21 strokes on approach—one of his worst days in that regard—he gained 1.12 strokes putting. Since Memorial Park features relatively easier greens, he should be able to improve his approach game tomorrow, giving himself more chances for birdies than he had today.
Other Options: Tony Finau, Min Woo Lee
$8,000+
Favorite Play: Thomas Detry had an unusually uneventful first round, carding only two birdies and a single bogey on the 17th hole. Typically, he is a solid scorer, but in Round 1, he lost 0.14 strokes on approach shots while gaining 0.66 strokes with the flat stick. Detry is usually reliable when it comes to executing approach shots and creating birdie opportunities. I expect him to bounce back in Round 2.
Other Options: Michael Kim, Maverick McNealy, Sahith Theegala
$7,000+
Favorite Play: Jake Knapp finished his round with seven birdies and five bogeys, delivering a performance that we’ve come to expect from him this season. He gained 2.51 strokes on approach and 1.76 strokes putting in Round 1. However, his play around the green hasn't been great, and today was no exception; he lost 1.72 strokes around the green. However, he STILL managed to post seven birdies! I anticipate that Knapp will bring the same tomorrow as he did today.
Other Options: Mackenzie Hughes, Seamus Power, Davis Riley, Kurt Kitayama
Prep work. @TCHouOpen pic.twitter.com/EQ6h830puo
— Jake Knapp (@knapptime_LTD) March 27, 2025
$6,000+
Favorite Play: Emiliano Grillo was uncharacteristic during his first nine holes, finishing with an even par 35. Typically, we see him play consistently well across 16 holes, but he often derails with one or two blow-up holes—something many of us can relate to. However, today he gained 2.00 strokes on approach and 1.21 strokes putting. Grillo showed aggression when in a good position off the tee, and with slightly improved play around the greens, he could have put himself closer to the top of the leaderboard. While Grillo can be a volatile player, he’s someone worth taking a chance on.
Other Options: Chan Kim, Pierceson Coody, Trey Mullinax, Jeremy Paul
Guy I'm Playing That You Shouldn't
This will be an every-week addition to my article where I'll pick a golfer who I believe has shown he can go nuclear but has every chance he could dud and should generally be reserved for the largest field GPP tournaments.
Matti Schmid has been solid this year, making six birdies in his round today. His only major blemish was the double bogey he carded on the fourth hole. Schmid gained 2.60 strokes on approach shots but lost 1.21 strokes with the flat stick. He’s exaclty the type of player I want to take a chance on in my lineups. While he was solid with his approach game, he struggled with the flat stick, ranking among the worst in the field. He’s likely to be a low-owned option, but he also has the potential to go low. The ideal golfer for this section of the article.
Day 1 leaderboard, presented by @MethodistHosp
The first round will resume tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. CT and second round will begin as scheduled at 7:20 a.m. pic.twitter.com/JzQve5AR8y
— Texas Children’s Houston Open (@TCHouOpen) March 28, 2025
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to use it, there is a video at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck, and may the odds ever be in your favor.
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