RADIO
Hello, Rotoballers! I hope everyone is doing well and is ready for another exciting year of PGA DFS. Showdown has returned for another season on DraftKings alongside the PGA Tour, and we’re here to help guide you, whether you’re looking to continue your journey from where you left off in 2024 or are new to this particular DFS format.
The 2025 edition of the Masters Tournament is underway, and what an eventful day it has been. Rory McIlroy seemed to be in complete control until he double-bogeyed two of his last four holes. Justin Rose tops the leaderboard after Round 1; he nearly carded a bogey-free 8-under 64 but bogeyed his final hole of the day, finishing with a 7-under 65. Rose will take a three-shot lead into Round 2, followed by Corey Conners, Scottie Scheffler, and Ludvig Aberg, who are all tied at 4-under. If the rest of the tournament unfolds like today, we are in for an exciting weekend.
Unlike standard golf DFS, which covers the entire tournament, Showdown focuses on each round as an individual event. It's crucial to find players who excel on approach shots, but it’s also important to make roster decisions that provide ownership leverage by selecting riskier players who may not have been performing their best recently but could have a strong bounce-back round. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
The early wave experienced slightly calmer conditions today compared to the afternoon wave. However, the weather forecast for Round 2 predicts more blustery conditions throughout the day. Golfers starting in the first few tee times tomorrow will have slightly more favorable conditions.
Round 2 Strategy
The key to success in showdowns is to look for ball strikers who can have a standout putting performance. Having two exceptional putting days in a row is quite challenging, so we should focus on golfers who have been consistent with their approach shots and created birdie opportunities but fell short in converting them.
It’s also beneficial to target players who need to improve their position on the leaderboard, as they often push harder on moving day. Additionally, golfers who have shown some positive form in the first two rounds are great candidates to consider.
Keep in mind that ownership levels tend to decrease as the morning's first tee time approaches, so identifying players who are likely to bounce back is crucial for achieving significant wins.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Rory McIlroy had an excellent round going until he stumbled on two of his final four holes, carding a double bogey on both holes 15 and 17. He was outstanding off the tee and executed his approach shots beautifully, gaining 1.59 strokes off the tee and 1.98 strokes on approach in Round 1. The only flaw in his game today was his putting, where he lost 1.11 strokes. That being said, it’s important to remember that he has been one of the best putters on tour this season. Many golfers might let a late collapse affect their performance in the next round, but both McIlroy's grit and form this year lead me to believe he will bounce back even stronger tomorrow.
Before making the turn, Rory McIlroy cards a birdie on No. 9 to reach three under par. #themasters pic.twitter.com/jGOkrkIpD0
— The Masters (@TheMasters) April 10, 2025
$9,000+
Favorite Play: Ludvig Aberg entered the Masters after missing the cut in his last two tournaments, and boy did he bounce back in a big way, especially considering this is only his second appearance at Augusta. Aberg put together an all-around outstanding performance today, gaining 5.26 strokes tee to green. He was excellent both off the tee and around the greens. Aberg played patiently and steadily, attacking the pin when he had the opportunity, but playing conservatively when he found himself out of position. I don’t see him flinching, and I expect him to continue rolling tomorrow.
Other Options: Bryson DeChambeau, Justin Thomas
Bryson DeChambeau moves into a tie for second. #themasters pic.twitter.com/n082h1YWPy
— The Masters (@TheMasters) April 10, 2025
$8,000+
Favorite Play: Min Woo Lee played steadily throughout the day, but left a couple of birdies out on the course. If he had converted those opportunities, he would be right in the mix at the top of the leaderboard. He gained 1.15 strokes on approach and 0.39 strokes putting. Lee is aggressive on approach and solid around the greens, so if he misses the green, there's a good chance he can get up and down to save par. Look for Lee to continue giving himself birdie opportunities tomorrow and hope he drops the ones he left out there today.
Other Options: Joaquin Niemann, Viktor Hovland, Corey Conners
$7,000+
Favorite Play: Patrick Reed delivered an all-around performance in Round 1. His experience at Augusta often stands out during the Masters, as he understands the landing zones on the greens and can effectively navigate tough pin locations on his approach shots. Reed gained 1.95 strokes on approach but lost 0.63 strokes in putting. I’m leaning into his solid approach game and hoping he can find his rhythm with the flat stick tomorrow.
Other Options: Cam Smith, Akshay Bhatia, Robert MacIntyre, Sungjae Im
$6,000+
Favorite Play: Michael Kim is a guy who has found it this year and been in excellent form. In Round 1, he struggled off the tee, losing 0.89 strokes, but was solid on approach and on the greens. He gained 1.47 strokes on approach and 1.80 strokes putting. If he can put himself in better positions off the tee tomorrow, he can let his approach game shine and create more birdie opportunities than he had today.
Other Options: Max Greyserman, Harris English, Stephan Jaeger, Cameron Young
Guy I'm Playing That You Shouldn't
This will be an every-week addition to my article where I'll pick a golfer who I believe has shown he can go nuclear but has every chance he could dud and should generally be reserved for the largest field GPP tournaments.
Tom Hoge carded seven birdies in the first round; BUUUUUUT he also had three bogeys and two double bogeys. He gained 0.88 strokes on approach and 3.66 strokes putting, but lost 4.14 strokes around the greens in Round 1. This isn't surprising, as Hoge has been one of the worst players around the greens on tour this season. ON THE OTHER HAND, he's been one of the best on approach. While Augusta's length poses a challenge for players who are shorter off the tee like Hoge, I'm willing to take my chances on someone who dropped seven birdies.
Another one! Justin Rose records his eighth birdie of the day and moves to eight under par. #themasters pic.twitter.com/oxh2mmUbj1
— The Masters (@TheMasters) April 10, 2025
This lineup is for demonstration purposes only.
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to use it, there is a video at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck, and may the odds ever be in your favor.
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