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The PGA RotoBaller staff digs into their One and Done selections for the WM Phoenix Open. Here are some under-the-radar plays and picks for this week's event.
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One and Done Selections - WM Phoenix Open
In this feature, our golf staff of Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar, Andrew Putters, Josh Bennett, Byron Lindeque and our special guest will provide their weekly golf picks every Wednesday. The purpose of this article is to present you with alternative options to consider and hopefully make your selection a much easier process weekly. With that plan in mind, let's get started!
Joe Nicely - Xander Schauffele
Alternate - Sungjae Im
Not a great start for me in this contest, but things can change quickly this week, as the WM Phoenix Open is the first of the PGA Tour’s “elevated” events and carries a huge prize purse as a result.
After digging into this event and its major-like field all week, I can’t help but think just how great of a week this should be for both fans and the sport of golf overall. The world’s best players battling it out in a fun, party atmosphere…what’s not to like?
As for the task at hand, there’s, obviously, no shortage of viable options in this week’s stacked field. While I think there are several intriguing directions to take this week, I’m going with the one that simply makes the most sense to me, which is Xander Schauffele. He’s narrowly missed wins at TPC Scottsdale in each of the last two years and he appeared to finally get his winning groove back in 2022, winning three times last year. Xander is the total package and that’s what this layout consistently rewards
Yearly Earnings - $360,770
Yearly Cuts Made - 3/4
Josh Bennett - Hideki Matsuyama
Alternate - Justin Thomas
This week we will see almost all OAD selections be mostly based on course history, as this event has shown us that specific players continue to finish in the top 20 year after year, and my choice is no different! There are tons of names to choose from here too, I’d say if you were just picking on course history alone you have at least 10 players to choose from, maybe even 20. I’m going to run with a course history guy that’s right in the middle of the pack, I suspect a lot of people will either go with a big gun like Rahm or Scottie, or save the big names and run with a guy like Kuchar or Rickie. I know playing Hideki always leaves the risk of injury withdrawal (which he did in 2018), but I think I’m going to be the only one to pick him in this contest and the risk will be worth it. Given that every year he’s usually a top chalk pick here I probably don’t need to explain, but since 2014 he’s got two wins, two others in the top five, and three others in the top 16. Out of all the guys with REALLY good course history here, it is hard to find any of them that can beat that. His form doesn’t concern me, he had just been getting over an injury recently, so I think we will see Hideki back in elite ball-striking form at a place he’s been great at for so long, maybe we even add that third victory for him this week.
Yearly Earnings - $384,683
Yearly Cuts Made - 2/4
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Spencer Aguiar - Collin Morikawa
Alternate - Patrick Cantlay
Here is my curveball for the week...
I think many people who have read my content would have expected this choice to have been Justin Thomas or Patrick Cantlay -- two golfers with extremely high ceilings to walk out of Phoenix with the title. However, the one-off nature of these contests had me push in a separate direction. If things were different with Thomas' or Cantlay's form, we might have been in a different situation.
Beyond all else, I want to be cognizant and cautious when I burn players this season. My model didn't find much of an edge when running the data for any of the choices, so while there are better names I could have taken, I am going to go with the golfer that would leave me with the least amount of regret moving forward.
As everyone knows, I am not a Morikawa guy. That often leaves him until the end of contests before I rush him out at the very end, but the back-to-back top-three finishes to start the season would be as impressive as we have seen from any golfer in the world not named Jon Rahm. Add that to his weighted proximity and the general nature of TPC Scottsdale being a ball-strikers course, which pushes me to believe we have an excellent opportunity to play things conservatively while still taking a top 10 golfer in the world.
Yearly Earnings - $548,375
Yearly Cuts Made - 2/4
Byron Lindeque - Tom Kim
Yearly Earnings - $1,315,615
Yearly Cuts Made - 3/4
Andrew Putters - Patrick Cantlay
Alternate - Scottie Scheffler
Cantlay is a force to be reckoned with, and his track record shows that he is more than capable of winning this tournament. All the metrics I am using to grade this week have Patrick first in my simulation model. In his last appearance, he finished in second place behind Scheffler. His game just makes sense to play him in this spot. I am just happy he chose to turn down the option for the live, on course interview. Patrick Cantlay at a minimum, finishes top 10 this week with a chance to win.
Yearly Earnings - $412,370
Yearly Cuts Made - 3/4
Mia The Model - Justin Thomas
Alternate - Scottie Scheffler
Byron T20
TeeOff T20
Aggregated Results
One of the significant differences you will notice is that I attached the aforementioned percent weight to each player when I randomized the list for the week. That means an option like Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm got rewarded for being better options for our models (which we see with their 13.5% chance) all the way down to the bottom of our board in Russell Henley, Shane Lowry and Brian Harman – three golfers that received 2.5% of the projected pick equity.
We agreed on randomizing the list five times to settle on the name, and Mia has decided she wants to roll with Justin Thomas this week as the selection and Scottie Scheffler as the alternate.
Let us know what you think of her chances this week!
Yearly Earnings - $710,300
Yearly Cuts Made - 2/4
Running Totals
Follow along here on the OAD Spreadsheet!
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