RADIO
The PGA RotoBaller staff digs into their One and Done selections for the Farmers Insurance Open. Here are some under-the-radar plays and picks for this week's event.
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For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and FanDuel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course which highlights the best fits for the week's course. And you can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week.
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One and Done Selections - Farmers Insurance Open
In this feature, our golf staff of Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar, Andrew Putters, Josh Bennett, Byron Lindeque and our special guest will provide their weekly golf picks every Wednesday. The purpose of this article is to present you with alternative options to consider and hopefully make your selection a much easier process weekly. With that plan in mind, let's get started!
Joe Nicely - Jon Rahm
Alternate - Jason Day
I realize that it’s tough spending a player like Jon Rahm this early in the year, but we might not find a better player playing better golf in a better spot than the Spaniard at Torrey Pines this week. He’s won both his 2023 starts and four of his last six. We pair that dominant recent form with the fact that Rahm has been at his best in this Farmers event, winning it in 2017 and posting top seven finishes in each of the last four years. Oh yeah…he also captured the 2021 U.S. Open on this Torrey South course.
Yearly Earnings - $58,400
Yearly Cuts Made - 1/2
Josh Bennett - Tony Finau
Alternate - Taylor Montgomery
Letting loose on one of the “heavy hitters” this week, although I think you can get away with someone further down the board if you really want to save the bigger names for down the road. Not a play style for me, though. I think Tony is a perfect fit for this course and event so I’m not going to hesitate. Long hitters are the key to success here, I don’t need to remind you of Tony’s length off the tee.
Although good putters have had success here, so have really poor putters (List, prime example), so I think Finau in a place that doesn’t require you to be an excellent putter is a great spot. He’s shown that to be the case as well; other than last year’s missed cut, he’s racked up four top 10s, including a runner-up plus another two finishes in the top 20 in the last eight years. He knows the feeling of winning now and I think he has a great chance to pull that off again this week.
Yearly Earnings - $138,908
Yearly Cuts Made - 1/2
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Spencer Aguiar - Sungjae Im
Alternate - Hideki Matsuyama
We all know who I am taking this week.
SIKE! Let's keep that for another DAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY. Sometimes you need to save yourself from opening your presents early to heighten that Christmas morning feeling when you unwrap that beautiful, six-foot, 195-pound gift that is bow-tied underneath your tree.
Wait, what are we talking about right now?
Anyway, with zero dollars in my pocket and needing money to afford better presents moving forward, I will throw a slight curveball and select Sungjae Im for the Farmers Insurance Open.
I talked about wanting to save Im for one of the Florida swing events at the Sony Open, but this might be the ideal situation to jump the popularity of a Bermuda event and grab the golfer that grades number one in my model from a weighted tee-to-green perspective.
Im's course history has improved every season he has played this event, and there are realistic routes present in my model for him to skyrocket up to third overall when running not only an aggressive approach but also a safer strategy.
Yearly Earnings - $0
Yearly Cuts Made - 0/2
Byron Lindeque - Jason Day
The Ketchup Kings are living up to their reputation. Aaron Wise was perfectly drizzling our cherished red sauce all over the meat and potatoes of the Stadium Course until the entire lid blew off the bottle on the 17th hole. A tidal wave of Heinz drenched his final two holes, going double-double to cap off a Thursday round that never ever really got better over the next few days. We are now officially in catchup mode and this is where KK LLC thrives. This week, we will be passing the bottle to Jason Day. He appears healthy and now heads to a venue that has seen him perform well even when his game was partially expired at times.
He has finishes of T3, MC, T16, T5, and a Win in his last five Farmers appearances and looks to be in better form than usual. The logic here is to find somebody with phenomenal course history that may not have a better opportunity at winning than this week. J Day is that guy as there are not many other courses he has played better at than Torrey Pines. This is a little less contrarian than our Ketchup King brand likes to endorse, but when it comes to the Farmers Insurance Open, you play the course history angle regardless of how many tempting alternatives the field may dangle.
Yearly Earnings - $231,865
Yearly Cuts Made - 1/2
Andrew Putters - Jason Day
Alternate - Scott Stallings
After many threats and the possibility of Spencer never speaking to me again, I have decided to play Jason Day this weekend. In all seriousness, Day hits the driver a long way and has a great short game, which is a great recipe for success at Torrey Pines North/South. This along with being a past champion and having several great finishes over the years has tipped me in his direction. All we have to do is dodge a few unwanted ailments and Day should have no problem taking this one down. However, it will be in the back of my mind until he putts out on the 72nd hole.
Yearly Earnings - $110,000
Yearly Cuts Made - 1/2
Mia The Model - Collin Morikawa
Alternate - Will Zalatoris
Byron T20
TeeOff T20
***Sungjae Im was removed from my model since we have used him before.
Aggregated Results
One of the significant differences you will notice is that I attached the aforementioned percent weight to each player when I randomized the list for the week. That means an option like Jon Rahm got rewarded for being a better option for our models (which we see with his 15% chance) all the way down to the bottom of our board in Maverick McNealy/Cameron Davis – two golfers that received 2.5% of the projected pick equity.
We agreed on randomizing the list five times to settle on the name, and Mia has decided she wants to roll with Collin Morikawa this week as the selection and Will Zalatoris as the alternate.
Let us know what you think of her chances at the Farmers Insurance Open!
Yearly Earnings - $110,000
Yearly Cuts Made - 1/2
Running Totals
Follow along here on the OAD Spreadsheet!
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