RIVAL Fantasy - NFL FantasyBook Over/Under DFS Prop Picks: Week 13

December 2, 2022

Joe Nicely's NFL Over/Under DFS prop picks for RIVAL fantasy contests and the Week 13 slate. Sign up for RIVAL fantasy and use his NFL DFS prop picks to win money.

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RIVAL FantasyBook NFL Over/Under Picks for Week 13

Trevor Lawrence OVER 18.82 Fantasy Points

The first overall draft pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, Trevor Lawrence put forth the best performance of his young career last week against the Baltimore Ravens. Lawrence threw for 321 yards and three TDs in Week 12's upset win over Baltimore.

Brimming with confidence after last week's heroics, Lawrence glides into a pristine matchup against the Detroit Lions in the domed comforts of Ford Field. While many have a soft spot for Dan Campbell's underdog squad, the reality is that they've struggled mightily against opposing passing attacks. The Lions have allowed the most DK points in the NFL to the QB position, while standing 26th in the league in passing yards allowed (2,989) and coughing up 18 passing TDs.

Deshaun Watson UNDER 19.32 fantasy points

700 days...that's how long it's been since Deshaun Watson last played in a real NFL game. Watson is a talented enough player, in a good enough matchup against the Houston Texans, to come out this week and play well - but man, that's a long layoff.

While Cleveland's controversial new QB could indeed pick up right where he left off roughly two years ago, it feels as though RIVAL is giving him a bit too much respect with his O/U set at a lofty 19.32 fantasy points this week. Let's keep in mind that this is a Cleveland offense that wants to take a run-heavy approach and currently ranks 25th in the NFL with a 52.89% pass-play rate.

Against a Texans defense that has allowed the NFL's most rushing yards (1,592) and rushing TDs (14) this season, it isn't hard to envision the Browns simply dominating this matchup on the ground.

Amon-Ra St. Brown OVER 17.61 fantasy points

Whether we're talking fantasy sports or props, volume is king. A player needs consistent opportunities to produce consistent results. Detroit's Amon-Ra St. Brown has garnered a massive workload in this Lions' passing attack in 2022. St. Brown owns a 28.5% team target share this season and he's caught seven or more passes in four of Detroit's last five. With the Full PPR scoring that RIVAL uses, these receptions are especially valuable.

St. Brown should stay busy yet again in Week 13. He draws an enticing matchup against a Jacksonville Jaguars unit that grades out 30th in the league in Pass Defense DVOA has relinquished the NFL's ninth-most fantasy points to the WR position.

Another reason that I like St. Brown is how nicely he correlates with one of our other selections, Trevor Lawrence. If Lawrence is having a good game, it likely means that St. Brown is as well. This correlation gives us an opportunity to get two things right by simply being correct about one game environment. Similar to the reasoning behind stacks in regular DFS, this correlation strategy is one I'll use often when playing on the RIVAL FantasyBook.

Zonovan Knight OVER 10.53 fantasy points

This one requires a little work, as the little-known Zonovan Knight is an injury-dependant play on RIVAL this week. With New York's starting RB currently considered doubtful for a Week 13 clash with the Minnesota Vikings, it looks as though Knight could be in for a significant workload.

The rookie looked superb in relief of the injured Carter in Week 12's win over the Chicago Bears. Knight totaled an impressive 103 yards on 14 carries and three receptions. If Carter does indeed miss this game, Knight's workload should propel him past his O/U mark of 10.53 fantasy points.

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