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Kyle Ringstad's MLB DFS prop picks for RIVAL fantasy contests for Wednesday, July 19th, 2023. Sign up for RIVAL fantasy and use his MLB DFS prop picks to win money.
Welcome to our new series covering RIVAL Fantasy picks for MLB! We will focus on two fantasy contest types offered on RIVAL - Challenges and FantasyBook (Over/Under).
Challenges are H2H matchups between two MLB players. You choose which one you think will score the most fantasy points, then place a bet to back it. If another user decides on the other player at any time before the contest, the bet is on! If your player scores more fantasy points, you win 1.8x your bet.
FantasyBook is more traditional over/under DFS prop picks - whether you think pitchers and hitters will score Over or Under the set lines, and choosing your amount. You can parlay multiple picks together to vastly increase the juice (ex: 3 picks = 5x your bet).
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RIVAL Challenge Picks
Eduardo Rodriguez OVER Aaron Civale
While both pitchers have impressive ERAs and face soft offenses tonight, I'm siding with E-Rod in this matchup. Rodriguez averages about 4 FPTS per game more than Civale for the season, and it makes sense because the Tigers' vet holds a higher strikeout rate at 26.8% (compared to Civale's 19.7%). The Royals are a bottom-ten-hitting team against left-handed pitching, and they strike out at the seventh-highest rate (24.5%) in the split.
Charlie Morton OVER Rich Hill
The MLB is about 147 years old, so I'm sure this isn't a record, but the combined age of the starting pitchers in this matchup is 82 years. Morton (39) and Hill (42) have been doing this for a long time. I like the younger arm in this H2H matchup, as he has been a much better pitcher than Hill this season (and throughout most of their careers). Morton averages 19.02 FPTS per game for the season and 24.6 FPTS per game over his last three starts. While a matchup with the Diamondbacks isn't ideal, Vegas has them scoring just 4.2 runs tonight and is giving the Braves -225 odds to win.
Charlie Morton OVER Aaron Civale
Aaron Civale OVER Sandy Alcantara
RIVAL Over/Under Picks
Yu Darvish (UNDER), Trevor Williams (UNDER), Cristopher Sanchez (UNDER)
I'm smashing the under on all three of these pitchers tonight. Darvish has a brutal matchup against the Blue Jays, and he has finished well under the 19.59 FPTS he needs tonight in four of his last five outings. Williams, to put it simply, isn't good. He holds a 4.42 ERA (5.11 xERA), 1.42 WHIP, and bottom-tier Statcast numbers in several categories. He has gone four consecutive starts without exceeding 12.2 FPTS, so his reaching 16 FPTS against the Cubs (5.2-run implied total) tonight feels unlikely. The high FPTS number for Sanchez is utterly confusing. He hasn't exceeded 19.37 FPTS in any of his six starts this season, and his 13.71 FPTS average is less than inspiring. He doesn't walk anyone, but he holds a mediocre 22% strikeout rate, and I'm all about the under on him tonight against the Brewers.
Ronald Acuna Jr. (OVER), Bobby Witt Jr., (UNDER), Giancarlo Stanton (UNDER)
Acuna has the highest FPTS line on the board for a hitter, but he's not a player you should be interested in fading right now under any circumstances. He posted a 1.112 OPS with nine homers and 14 steals in June alone, and his .981 OPS with three homers and seven steals in July is somehow a step down in performance. He produces spectacularly against righties (18 HR, 21 doubles, 35 steals, 1.010 OPS, .258 ISO, .429 wOBA), and Colin Rea (4.71 ERA, 13 HR allowed over 15 starts) is not a pitcher we should consider backing down from.
Witt is 0-for-9 over his last two games, and he'll be facing the veteran Eduardo Rodriguez today in Kansas City. The soft-throwing lefty has had a spectacular season, compiling a 2.70 ERA (3.45 xERA) and a 26.8% strikeout rate over his 13 starts. I think E-Rod and a decent Detroit bullpen will hold down Witt and the Royals tonight, and Vegas agrees, as they have Kansas City saddled with a low 4.1-run implied total.
Stanton is 0-for-13 over his last three games, including a hitless affair at Coors Field. He's hitting just .176 with a .626 OPS against right-handers this season, and while Chase Silseth and the Angels bullpen aren't scaring anyone, I'm also not willing to bet on Stanton to turn the corner tonight. He works as a potential cheap dart throw on daily fantasy sites in case he happens to hit a homer, but I'm taking the under on RIVAL all day and night here.
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