PrizePicks PGA DFS Prop Picks - Over/Under Props for the Mexico Open (Round 1)

Welcome to our PrizePicks PGA DFS prop picks for the Mexico Open (Round 1). The 2024 PGA Tour season is back in full swing, and to celebrate, PrizePicks has an extensive selection of PGA props to take advantage of! PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or singular stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win, and on the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.

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This week, we're at Vidanta Vallarta for the 2024 Mexico Open! Mexico's National Open doesn't carry the same level of cache as an Open Championship or U.S. Open, but for 80 years, some of the best players in the world (Lee Trevino, Ben Crenshaw, Jon Rahm, etc.), have ventured south of the border to claim this prestigious title. This year (it's third as an official event on the PGA Tour), we'll see defending Champion Tony Finau attempt to fight off a collection of young up-and-comers who will all be motivated to kick start their 2024 campaigns with Major season quickly approaching. I and the entire Rotoballer PGA staff have put out 1,000s of words on the course, key stats, and field this week, so this article won't be focused on the minutiae of projecting outright winners or DFS pivot plays. Instead, I'll be solely focused on a few money-making opportunities I've found in PrizePicks' unique markets to help you build your bankroll as the PGA Tour season gets into full swing! Today's plays are specifically for round one on Thursday, February 22.

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Single Stat PGA Totals - DFS Prop Picks

Prize Picks prop totals are not always available first thing in the morning, so check back during the day as other props may be added during the day.

Keith Mitchell LESS than 5.0 Birdies or Better

Although Vidanta Vallarta profiles as your traditional resort course birdie party, I'd be hesitant to lean wholeheartedly into the overs in the birdie or better markets. In the two years since the PGA Tour has come to Mexico's southwestern coast, only seven holes on property have surrendered a birdie rate over 16%, and five of the 18 holes here have featured bogey or worse rates north of 20%.

Scoring at Vidanta Vallarta will primarily have to be done on its four par fives and the drivable par four seventh hole. But with Birdie/Better totals on PrizePicks currently sitting in the 4.5-5.5 range, it won't leave a lot of leeway for players who don't typically excel in taking advantage of these opportunities.

Enter Keith Mitchell, who although he sits right alongside the likes of Nicolai Hojgaard, Stephan Jaeger, and Thomas Detry at the top of PrizePicks' birdie or better projections, the underlying stats don't consider him nearly the same scoring threat as those around him on the board. Instead, Mitchell ranks 83rd in this field in Par 5 Scoring, 48th in Birdie or Better Percentage, and 115th in my Key Proximity range of 175-200 yards.

None of the aforementioned three names he's priced with rank outside the top 5o in any of those key metrics, and now facing a brand new set of greens in his Mexico Open debut, it's unlikely that Keith will be able to lean on his currently wayward putter (105th in SG: Putting over the last six months).

Stephan Jaeger MORE than Justin Suh - Birdies or Better Matchup

Jaeger was a name I wrote up in my Monday morning preview article right here on RotoBaller, but never quite got the number I needed to back him in the outright market. That doesn't change the fact that I believe he profiles wonderfully for Vidanta Vallarta (exemplified by finishes of 15th and 18th here over the last two seasons), and will continue to look for ways to back him in auxiliary markets as the week goes on.

This Thursday Birdies or Better matchup with Justin Suh profiles as one of the best chances I see on the board, as not only do we get to lean into one of my favorite prospects this week, I also get a chance to fade one of the field's worst ball-strikers relative to price. In my key approach ranges of 175-200 and 200+, Justin Suh ranks in the bottom 20% of the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained per Shot, Proximity to the Hole, Good Shot %, and Green in Regulation Rate. Not a great profile on a golf course that has featured one of the PGA Tour's most heavily skewed distributions of lon-iron approach shots (63.1%).

Jaeger also outpaces Suh in Par 5 Scoring, Birdie Chances Created, Birdie or Better %, and has a better track record on Paspalum surfaces. As weary as I typically am in fading the better putter in these matchups, the sheer gulf in tee-to-green class (in addition to Justin's relative lack of Paspalum experience), makes this a worthwhile addition to the Round 1 portfolio.

Other Recommendations

• Aaron Rai MORE than 9.5 Fairways Hit
• Tony Finau LESS than 5.5 Birdies or Better
• Emiliano Grillo MORE than 13.5 Greens in Regulation

Overall recommendation for this play: Power Play

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