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Elliot's post-hype fantasy baseball home run sleepers for 2025 - power hitters primed for breakout fantasy baseball seasons. Draft these HR sleepers for upside.
Chicks dig the long ball, and hey, guys love 'em, too. That's why home run hitters are often the first players taken off the board in fantasy baseball. Power just has so much value in fantasy baseball, especially in a traditional 5x5 league.
In this article, I've identified five home run hitters who may've once been hyped but don't have a ton of buzz heading into 2025. These are players who could provide excellent power value in drafts this season, even if they're flawed in other aspects of the game.
These post-hype home run hitters could outperform their projections or maybe are just being overlooked in draft lobbies. ADP is taken from NFBC and is accurate as of 3/4/25.
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Michael Toglia, 1B, Colorado Rockies
ADP: 181.58
There hasn’t been a ton to get excited about in Colorado for a while now, but one positive development is that of first-base prospect Michael Toglia.
A first-round pick by Colorado back in 2019, Toglia was pegged as Colorado’s first baseman of the future as a prospect. He failed hard during his first two tastes of the big leagues, batting .187 with a .572 OPS and 34.6 percent strikeout rate over 272 PA between 2022-23.
And that was while playing his home games at Coors Field, mind you. 2024 represented the first sign of life for Toglia at the plate. The big switch hitter walloped 25 home runs and stole 10 bases in 458 PA for the Rockies. Sure, he only hit .218 and struck out 32.1 percent of the time, but he still made measurable progress at the plate.
Something that might excite fantasy managers about Toglia is his exceptional quality of contact. Sure, he whiffs a lot (seriously, a lot), but Toglia pulverizes the ball when he does make contact. Last season, Toglia had a 92.1 mph average exit velocity, a .503 xSLG, a .358 xwOBA, and a 50.2 percent hard-hit rate, all top 10 percent in the league. His xwOBAcon was a ridiculous .496 last season as well.
As you can see from the graphic, Toglia is a crusher of the baseballs. As you can also see, his contact ability is atrocious. He had a 54.4 percent whiff rate and a .151 AVG against breaking balls last season and had the second-lowest contact rate among hitters with at least 450 PA last season.
Toglia will be a batting average liability. There are some reasons to believe he could improve next season; his contact rate has been rising, and he did struggle with a .270 BABIP last season despite a solid 21.6 percent line drive rate and playing for Colorado. Maybe he could hit .230, which would be a boon since Toglia has a 25-30 home run upside.
Josh Jung, 3B, Texas Rangers
ADP: 210.76
Jung’s 2024 season was DOA when he suffered a fractured wrist on April 1 that cost him four months of the year. Even when he played, Jung did not perform at the plate.
He had a decent .264 AVG but smacked just seven homers with 16 RBI and a .421 SLG in 188 PA. The wrist was bothering Jung so much that he had to end his season early and have a second surgery. It was a frustrating campaign for the 27-year-old third baseman. He’s been sliding down draft boards heading into the 2025 season as well, with Jung going after pick 200 in NFBC leagues.
Once a top prospect in the Rangers organization, Jung is a former first-round pick who displayed some excellent power numbers in the minor leagues. He had a .273 ISO across all levels in 2023. Jung’s power did translate to the major leagues as well, at least at first.
Between 2022 and 2023, Jung swatted 28 home runs and put up a .203 ISO over 617 PA. He did most of that damage in 2023 when Jung hit 23 home runs in 515 PA. Jung’s quality of contact in 2023 was superb as well. He pulverized the ball, with a 91.8 mph average exit velocity and 11.9 percent barrel rate. He also had a .453 xwOBAcon and a 47.4 percent hard-hit rate that year.
So, we know Jung can hit the ball well, so what’s holding him back? The wrist was an issue for him last season. His average exit velocity fell over 5 mph, dropping to a pitiful 86.2 mph. His hard-hit rate also fell by 8 percent in 2024. That’s just not something you’d ever expect to see from a 26-year-old finely tuned athletic machine. If healthy, Jung should be able to recapture past power.
Some subtle signs in his 2024 numbers suggest Jung’s still got it as well. He still had a .479 SLG against fastballs last season, not that far down from his 2023 mark of .511. Jung still hit for average as well, managing a .264 AVG, over 20 points better than the league average.
He was able to achieve this by maintaining a steady line drive rate and reducing his strikeout rate. Jung has lowered his strikeout rate every year in the bigs, going from an abysmal 38.2 percent strikeout rate his rookie year to a more manageable 25.5 percent strikeout rate last year.
The only thing missing for Jung was power, and if healthy, it should return. Most projections have Jung hitting around .240-.250 with 18-22 home runs, and I think he could outproduce those projections.
He had an ISO over .200 in his first two seasons and has hit .266 and .264 over his last two seasons. If everything goes right, Jung could hit 25 home runs and bat over .260, all in the middle of a powerful Rangers lineup.
Matt Wallner, OF, Minnesota Twins
ADP: 276.53
Wallner had some big hype heading into the 2024 season after he impressed in limited playing time in 2023. In 2023, Wallner smacked 14 home runs in 254 PA with a .258 ISO and 143 wRC+. Not too shabby, although he did strike out 31.5 percent of the time.
Still, fantasy managers were excited for Wallner heading into 2024, and he had an up-and-down season. He began the year hitting .080 in April and getting demoted to the minor leagues, but he came alive in the second half. After the break last season, Wallner clobbered 10 home runs and posted a .914 OPS in 202 PA.
Wallner again showed flashes of excellence at times in 2024 but was ultimately inconsistent. Can he put it together for an entire season?
Putting it together for a full season might mean different things to different players. For someone like Wallner putting it together, it might look like exceptional results against righties and having passable numbers against lefties. He may not get the chance to hit lefties much in 2025 as Wallner only got 44 PA against lefties all last year.
The Twins do have Harrison Bader as a natural platoon partner. Still, Wallner pulverized right-handed pitching last season. Against righties, Wallner hit .275 with a .953 OPS and .291 ISO. Even if he never hits lefties, he could be a solid Kerry Carpenter or Joc Pederson type.
Wallner crushes the ball as well, putting up a ridiculous 92.8 mph average exit velocity and a 116.8 mph max EV last season. He also had a 53.2 percent hard-hit rate and a 21.6-degree average launch angle, meaning the dude was just crushing hard-hit fly balls and liners.
Wallner profiles similarly to Michael Toglia, though Toglia is likely an everyday player in Coors Field, giving him more value. Like Toglia, Wallner hits the ball well when he manages to make contact. Wallner had a 36.4 percent strikeout rate and a 63.8 percent contact rate last season.
Even against righties, he struck out 34.1 percent of the time. Wallner will simply have to make better contact if he expects to last at the big league level; he’s not talented enough to get away with a 36 percent strikeout rate.
He “only” struck out 31.5 percent of the time in 2023, so perhaps there’s reason to believe he could cut back on the strikeouts. That and his massive platoon splits are his biggest drawbacks, but that’s why Wallner can be had after pick 250 in NFBC leagues.
Ben Rice, 1B, New York Yankees
ADP: 644.18
This one is for the deep league and AL-only players, but Rice could have some value with Giancarlo Stanton on the shelf with elbow troubles.
The left-handed hitting Rice is slated to play DH against right-handed pitching, and he could have some big power upside playing in Yankee Stadium. The 26-year-old slugger hit 24 home runs in 356 minor league PA last season, along with a .294 ISO and .967 OPS.
Those are some impressive numbers on their own, but consider that Rice did it with a .79 BB/K ratio. His BB/K ratio was nearly 1:1 at Triple-A last season as well, with Rice walking and striking out about 18 percent of the time.
One glimpse at Rice’s 2024 major league stats might make one disregard him, but that might be too quick a judgment for him. Yes, he only hit .171 in 178 PA, but he was met with some atrocious luck. Rice somehow only had a .186 BABIP despite a 90 mph average exit velocity and a 20.2 percent line drive rate. Those aren’t wild numbers, but they certainly warrant better results than what Rice got last season.
Rice also had a 15.6 percent barrel rate, so he was striking the ball well when making contact. Rice also had a .235 xBA, which probably doesn’t seem great on the surface, but remember that he hit .171. That’s a 64-point gap between expected and actual results, which was the largest gap in the majors (min. 100 BIP). He was exceptionally unlucky last year and should have better results in 2025.
Enough about the batting average, what about the long ball? This is a piece about home runs, after all. Well, based on his minor league numbers, Rice seems more than capable of swatting 20-25 bombs if given the opportunity. ZiPS projects him for a .226/.320/.430 triple slash with 22 home runs and 71 RBI in 469 PA. That's not bad for a player going past pick 500 in NFBC leagues.
Stanton may be back eventually, but if Rice hits, he’ll likely earn playing time. He can play first base and DH, meaning the retirement committee of Giancarlo Stanton, DJ LeMahieu, and Paul Goldschmidt is what’s standing in his way. There will certainly be injuries and slumps among that group, paving the way for Rice to emerge.
Tyler O'Neill, OF, Baltimore Orioles
ADP: 183.04
It might be tough to pass O’Neill off as a post-hype sleeper after he smacked 31 bombs in a renaissance campaign with Boston last year. Now in Baltimore, O’Neill is being overlooked on draft day by fantasy managers across the board.
He’s currently going as the 180th player in NFBC leagues and is the 171st-ranked player by RotoBaller experts. I’m not saying he needs to go in the top 100, but that seems rather lower given all the impressive play we saw from O’Neill last season.
He may have only hit .241 last season, but O’Neill also managed to hit 31 homers and slug .511 in 473 PA. His .270 ISO and 131 wRC+ show an impressive display of power as well.
The batted ball data backs up O’Neill’s power as well. He had a monster 17.3 percent barrel rate last season, good for the 98th percentile in the majors. He also had a 90.9 mph average exit velocity and a 20.2-degree average launch angle. The dude’s swing was engineered to hit dongs, and O’Neill did just that in 2024. So, why is he being drafted so late?
There are legitimate concerns with O’Neill. He’s struggled to stay healthy throughout a big league season, with his career-high at just 138 games. He also strikes out at an alarming rate, whiffing 33.6 percent of the time last season.
Still, when O’Neill makes contact, he pulverizes the ball and a repeat of 30 home runs is certainly possible. Heck, if he stays healthy, he could hit 35. He hit 34 in a career-high 138 games in 2021, so he could threaten 35 again if the stars align. Probably not a post-hype sleeper in the strictest sense, but O’Neill was a big prospect coming up and he has almost no hype coming into 2025.
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