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Shane Bieber 2023 Player Outlook: Drop In Velocity Doesn’t Look Set To Wreck Fantasy Value
2 years agoShane Bieber entered 2022 with question marks over his health following shoulder problems in 2021 and proceeded to concern fantasy managers with a significant drop in his average fastball velocity (from 92.8 MPH in 2021 to 91.3 MPH in 2022). But he defied those concerns by completing 200.0 IP (31 starts) with a 13-8 W-L record, 2.88 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 198 Ks. The most noticeable change in Bieber's numbers was a sharp drop in his strikeout rate going from a 33.1% K% in 2021 to 25.0% K% in 2022. But he mitigated that by having a career-best 4.6% BB%, inducing more groundballs (48.2% GB%) and the 198 Ks were the second-most he's had in any season. A concerted effort to throw his slider more helped with that (28.8% usage) and it paid dividends yielding a .193 average and .291 slugging percentage against it. There wasn't any luck involved in Bieber's miserly ERA either, with a 2.98 xFIP and 3.21 SIERA suggesting he can continue to offer up excellent ratios. His 200 IP should also provide reassurances to fantasy managers in 2023 that he's not hurt and even if the velocity doesn't return to pre-2022 numbers, Bieber can still provide value as an SP2 with an ADP of ~54.
