Robinson Cano 2019 Outlook: Veteran Should Still Be A Top 2B
6 years agoNew York Mets second baseman Robinson Cano is 36 years old, and some may say that he is past the prime of his career, but he still had a .303/.374/.471 slash line in 80 games last season. The fact that he only played 80 games in 2018 marred his performance a bit, as he was suspended for PED use. It was still the first season that he had a .300 batting average since 2014. With a. 826 OPS and 107 home runs in his five seasons in Seattle, Cano proved that, while he is not the MVP candidate like he was with the Yankees, he is still a top-10 2B.
Speaking to consistency, Cano has had a batting average of .280 or higher in 13 of his 14 seasons (.271 in 2008 with the Yankees) and has a .450 slugging percentage or higher in each season other than 2008 and 2015. There is something to be said about posting similar slash lines more than a decade apart (.306/.353/.488 in 2007); you know what you are getting with Cano and, remember, he did have 39 home runs and 103 RBI in 2016. While his 39-home run outburst was nice (but might be tainted by his PED suspension), remember that the 2016 season was the only one where he topped 25 home runs in Seattle.
Speaking to park factors, Cano's old ballpark suppressed home runs to lefties, but his new ballpark in Queens was even worse for lefty power in 2017 and 2018. Taking a look at his batted ball data, Cano's hard hit ball rate improved in each season that he was in Seattle, up to a career-best 41.5% hard hit ball rate in 2018. He also had a 11.3% soft hit ball rate last season (the lowest of his career) and his 22.6% line drive rate was better than his career 21.1% mark. Cano was a bit unlucky in terms of power (12.8% HR/FB rate is under his 14.5% career rate), but his 29.4% fly ball rate was his lowest since 2015.
Cano looks like he will bat near the middle of the Mets lineup, in a position to potentially knock in Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil at the top of the lineup. He will no longer have speed demons like Jean Segura and Dee Gordon, but McNeil had some of the best contact rates last season (25th in the second half at 85%) and Nimmo was third in baseball in OBP in the second half (.446). Look for Cano to approach 90 or more RBI, post an OPS in the mid-.800s, and regain his value as a top-seven 2B.