Rich Hill 2019 Outlook: Elite Ratios and Limited Innings
6 years agoIn his two years with the Dodgers, Rich Hill has pitched 135.2 and 132.2 innings. Whether that is fully due to health (blisters) or is partially due to the Dodgers having more than five starters and having the luxury of giving them rest, you can be the judge. Either way, it would be unreasonable to expect more than 140 innings in 2019 from Hill. However, Hill has not shown much, if any, dropoff since the remarkable reinvention of his game, even though he will be 39 all season, In the second half last year, he had a 3.03 ERA with 10.47 K/9. In 2017, he had a 3.32 ERA with 11.01 K/9. He has had WHIPs of 1.09 and 1.12. On a per inning basis, he has been an elite pitcher, and that will likely continue in 2019, although his age would suggest a slight decline from the ageless wonder. If you can afford to keep him on the DL when he inevitably gets injured, or you have a deep bench, he is worth taking higher than 163rd, where RotoBaller is currently ranking him. However, if your bench space is especially valuable in your league, closer to 180 is more appropriate given that he likely will not produce many innings. Expect a mid-3s era with approximately 10 K/9 and a WHIP around 1.10 in limited innings, which would be similar to last year’s 3.66 ERA, 11-5 record, and 150ks in 132.2 innings. If you’re in a league with deep benches and DL slots, Hill may have more value to you.