RADIO
Pablo Lopez 2021 Player Outlook: Boost in ADP Still Provides Value
4 years agoThe fan base for Pablo Lopez is growing and for good reason. He pulled off six wins in 11 starts, albeit more impressive considering he started for the offensively challenged Marlins. Lopez also utilized 2020 to tweak his pitch usage (led by a 94 mph fastball) leading to drastically increased success. He continued to drift away from the curveball, only 7% compared to 18% in 2020. Sure, it had a 43% K rate, but it also allowed a .409 wOBA. Lopez's changeup was much more effective, with a 33% K rate and only a 68 wRC+. We can feel a little more confident in his 3.09 FIP knowing he generates a 52% ground-ball rate. You're not going to go wild over a 17% K-BB, but his Chase rate (35%), Exit Velo (85.7 mph), and Barrel rate allowed (4.3%) all point to an overall solid pitcher with room for even more upside. One risk to consider for 2021, aside from his offensive support, is that he throws two pitches 85% of the time. However, until we see the trend show otherwise, we will assume the positive momentum continues. Lopez's current ADP sits at 121, which is a tremendous improvement from 370 in 2020. However, even his current spot could be viewed as a value.
