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1 month agoMinnesota Twins outfielder Max Kepler broke out in a big way in 2019, almost doubling his home run output and setting career highs in runs and RBIs to finish with a line of .252-36-90-98-1. The home run increase was driven by a 41.7 Hard Hit % and a .54 increase in xSLG. However, a closer look under the hood seems to suggest that the power numbers may be a bit misleading. Despite a .519 slugging percentage, Kepler's xSLG was only .458, his xwOBA was 61st percentile, his barrel percentage rose only 2% from 2018, and his exit velocity stayed the same. Those numbers show improvement but also don't justify nearly double the home runs. Kepler did slightly underperform his xBA, so it's possible he sees some average growth and gets back to his usual four to six stolen bases. His final line this year could look something a little more like .260-28-85-90-4. It's a solid line and certainly one worth his current 144 ADP.--Eric Samulski - RotoBaller
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