January 8, 2026

Since launching an NL-leading 54 home runs back in 2023, Matt Olson has provided a safe floor with a much lower ceiling for fantasy baseball. In 2025, Olson held a .272 AVG (a strong jump from the .247 he held the year prior) but hit only 29 home runs, matching his 2024 total. He added 95 RBI with 98 runs batting near the top of an inconsistent Atlanta offense while appearing in all 162 games. While managers should expect his batting average to take a bit of a dip in 2026, as suggested by his modest .254 xBA (52nd percentile), his power upside remains near the top of the first base position. He generated an impressive 14.3% barrel rate with a 53.5% hard-hit rate, placing him in the 89th and 95th percentile among qualified hitters. His hard-hit rate was more in line with the 55.5% he generated back in 2023, compared to the low 47.4% he posted in 2024. However, his power production did not take much of a jump forward in 2025 due to his lower 28.3% fly-ball rate. If Olson can continue to elevate the ball, he could return to the 35+ HR territory as his power metrics under the hood remain elite. With a healthy Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies, and Austin Riley set to bat alongside him at the top of the order, Olson has a favorable price tag at his 50.9 ADP on NFBC given his potential to provide high-floor counting stats and push for 30+ home runs.--Andy Smith