December 21, 2019

It feels strange typing this, but Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Madison Bumgarner will not take the mound for the Giants for the first time in 11 seasons. MadBum was able to stay healthy in 2019 and delivered as expected, going 9-9 with a 3.90 ERA, an 8.80 K/9 rate, and a 1.86 BB/9 rate over 207 ⅔ innings pitched. Digging deeper, it was encouraging to see Bumgarner add a bit of velocity back to his fastball (91.4 MPH) and a lot of spin (2,405 revolutions per minute) while maintaining a respectable 24.1% strikeout rate. However, Bumgarner’s batted-ball profile left much to be desired; his average launch angle jumped to 17.4 degrees compared to his average of 14.3 degrees and his 41.5% hard-hit rate was in the bottom 10 percent of baseball. This is all reflected in his 4.15 SIERA, which, while it isn’t awful, is not the level that we have come to expect from Bumgarner. Further, Bumgarner will no longer have the luxury of pitching his home games in one of baseball’s most pitcher-friendly parks. Chase Field did actually favor pitchers slightly in 2019 per ESPN’s park factors, likely due to the installation of the humidor, but it was not nearly as pitcher-friendly as Oracle Park. The batted-ball profile and shift in home fields point towards a decrease in performance in 2020. Bumgarner is currently the 38th pitcher going off the board at pick 116. This seems reasonable, as it slots him as about a number-three starter. Given the expected regression for MadBum, between pick 116 to about 130 feels like a good value.--Connelly Doan