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Luke Voit 2019 Outlook: Emerging Slugger Offers Upside Despite Likely Regression
6 years agoNew York Yankees first baseman Luke Voit was a stretch-run superstar in 2018, posting a .322/.398/.671 slash line with 15 homers over 161 combined plate appearances between the St. Louis Cardinals (13 PAs) and the Yankees. His rise had precedent, as he’d posted a .896 OPS with 11 homers over 310 PAs in the Minors, but even the strongest proponents of Yankee Stadium as a power haven wouldn’t have given Voit the 40.5% HR/FB rate that he finished ‘18 with. He also finished with a .365 BABIP that will likely tumble a bit, though he posted a .368 BABIP at Triple-A in 2017 and has elite hard-hit rates (47% in 2018, 41% in 124 MLB PAs in ‘17) and strong line-drive rates that sat around 25% in the Minors. As such, he remains a good bet for an average around .300 even as the raw power totals step back. How the Bronx Bombers decide to deploy him and Greg Bird at first base is another story, but Voit has the clear upper hand for now after Bird’s lost ‘18 season. Steamer’s giving him 493 PAs and 130 R+RBI, but regular at-bats in this stacked lineup and a home park that can turn liners into short homers means he has top-100 potential and is easily worth the risk at his ADP of 200.
