RADIO
Kenta Maeda 2021 Fantasy Outlook: Consistent SP2 With Ace Upside
4 years agoMinnesota Twins starting pitcher Kenta Maeda’s first MLB season away from LA was his best, putting up a 2.70 ERA and 0.75 WHIP while winning six of his 11 starts in Minnesota. The shortened season may have helped, as Maeda spent the whole year as a starter and wasn’t bounced between the bullpen and rotation like he was by the Dodgers. But his underlying numbers backed up his improved results, as he also had a 2.92 SIERA and 2.63 xFIP while lowering his walk rate to 4.0% and increasing his strikeout rate to 32.3%, both career-bests. The changes Maeda made to his pitch usage in 2020 were interesting and were a big reason for these improvements. His swinging-strike rate of 17.2% was third-best among qualified pitchers last season, as his fastball usage dropped from 33.7% in 2019 to 18.8% in 2020. Instead, Maeda used his changeup (29.4%, up from 23.7%) and his slider (38.6%, up from 31.5%) much more. The Twins look like they have managed to maximize Maeda’s effectiveness with his changing pitch usage, so there are no reasons to worry that he'll complete regress from last year. While a sub-3.00 ERA across a full season might be a stretch, Maeda looks to have the potential to return ace value despite being drafted as an SP2 in Rounds 4 or 5.
