February 29, 2020

After posting an impressive .897 OPS in 2017, Jose Martinez had his worst year in 2019, hitting just ten home runs on his way to a .269/.340/.410 slash line. Martinez displayed a couple of worrying trends last year. For one, Martinez’s ground-ball rate rose for the second consecutive season to 49.8%, suffocating his home run (2.7%) and extra-base hit (6.7%) rates. Additionally, Martinez struggled against breaking pitches for the first time in his career last season, as his xwOBA against breaking balls dropped 94 points to .266. The good news for Martinez is that moving to Tampa Bay should offer him more regular playing time. The Cardinals used Martinez in a career-high 11.3% of his plate appearances last year, where he posted a .654 OPS compared to a .762 OPS when starting games in the lineup. He will likely be used more consistently as a starter with the Rays, so he should see his production improve. Additionally, Martinez is still a strong fastball hitter (.400 xwOBA on fastballs) with solid plate discipline skills (29.3% chase rate) and decent contact skills (78.7% contact rate), so his floor should be a .750-ish OPS in 2020. Martinez also offers solid upside if he can return to a higher fly-ball rate and bounce-back against breaking balls, so his 395 ADP is a good price.--Sam Chinitz