December 13, 2022

San Diego Padres right-hander Joe Musgrove (toe) has long been viewed as a potential star after being taken with the 46th overall pick of the 2011 draft. Twelve years later, that notion has come to fruition as a potential fantasy stud in 2023. After making just eight starts in the shortened 2020 season, Musgrove's career took off following a trade from the Pittsburgh Pirates to the San Diego Padres. Over two seasons with the Friars, the right-hander owns a 3.10 ERA, 19.6% K-BB%, and has won 21 games, all of which rank within the top 20 among qualified starting pitchers in that time. His performance has been excellent and he's been able to take the ball every fifth day as a member of the Padres, although a broken toe suffered in the weight room in the final days of February has put his Opening Day status in serious jeopardy. Nonetheless, Musgrove ranks 16th in innings pitched and 18th in starts as a Padre. Steamer projections for 2023 aren't as kind as he's pegged for a decline in ERA (3.78), K% (24.9%), and K-BB% (19.2%), albeit with a 13-win season across 32 starts as a potent Padres offense will back him. Entering his age-30 campaign, Musgrove is being snatched around 86th overall in 12-team standard leagues. He's our 21st-ranked starting pitcher, right in line with his work over the last two seasons, thus solidifying his ADP for 2023.--Brenton Kemp