January 24, 2026

Cincinnati Reds relief pitcher Emilio Pagan was one of the top value picks managers could have selected in their 2025 drafts. The right-hander would operate as Cincinnati's primary closer all season long and finished the campaign with an elite 2.88 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and an eye-catching 32 saves, the second-most in the entire National League. With the Reds, Pagan struck out hitters at a 30.0% clip, placing him in the 89th percentile among qualified pitchers. This elite showing earned him a two-year contract with the Reds in December, suggesting they view him as their closer going forward. Before 2025, the last time Pagan would tally up to 20 saves in a single season was in 2019 with the Tampa Bay Rays. From 2020 through 2024, Pagan would hold an overall 4.15 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP. While Pagan was a league-winner last season, he will likely take a step back in 2026. He generated a low 29.1% ground-ball rate and hefty 56.7% fly-ball rate, which suggests he could see his ratios hurt significantly by the long ball this upcoming season, pitching in a hitter's paradise in Cincinnati. Additionally, his 9.1% barrel rate, which placed him in the 38th percentile, further suggests he could face significant regression this season. While he is a safe bet for 20 saves at his 122.8 ADP on NFBC drafts, managers should expect an ERA within the mid-3.00s with a significantly higher WHIP in 2026, making him a riskier pick at that point of the draft.--Andy Smith