RADIO
Domingo German 2020 Outlook: Suspension Plus Shaky Profile Equals Pass
5 years agoIt’s always difficult, on multiple levels, to evaluate a player like German. Not only won’t he be able to pitch in the first 63 games, but the reason why—suspension for domestic violence—is bad enough that some managers won’t roster him for that reason alone. Even with the resulting discount, however, and assuming you aren’t one of those to dismiss him out of hand, there is not much to like in German’s profile. Almost all of his 2019 value came via an 18-4 record, quite reasonable on the Yankees except that it was not backed by strong performance. His 4.03 ERA came with just a 4.72 FIP, albeit a 4.22 xFIP. His Statcast numbers declined from 2018 to ’19: a 5.1% barrel rate became 8.8%, exit velocity off of him reached 89.1 mph where it had been 87.8, and his xwOBA increased to .316 from .295. He also lost velocity on his four seamer, from 94.5 mph in 2018 to 93.4 in 2019. Given how much time German will miss in 2020 on top of all that, and it’s hard to see value here. Of course, since news of his suspension broke on January 2, his ADP has tanked roughly 100 spots (roughly 250 in drafts before and 350 in drafts after). No need to draft him at any price.
