June 27, 2019

Perhaps it's unfair to ask, "is this finally the year?" regarding Derrick Henry after his 1,059-yard, 12-touchdown 2018 campaign. To ask that question, though, is to touch on what fantasy owners everywhere believe: that he is capable of even more. If we take away the two-game stretch near the end of last season in which Henry combined for 50 carries, 408 yards and six touchdowns, Henry's 2018 stat line would read as follows: 11.79 carries per game, 46.5 yards per game, and six touchdowns. His best sample of the season came in the final month, which has vaulted him up 2019 draft boards as fantasy managers anticipate a full season's worth of a bell-cow workload for the first time in Henry's career. He will certainly need more than 12 carries per game to return investment on an early-round draft pick, so here's hoping Tennessee's play-callers lean on him in September 2019 the way they did in December 2018. If such is the case, Henry will return first-round value at a late second or early third-round ADP. The other side of that coin flip is another frustrating usage pattern, in which case Henry's fantasy managers could find themselves trotting out dead weight at RB2. There is also a reason for caution regarding the lower leg injury that Henry has been struggling with recently. He is expected to be fine for the season but caution should be exercised right now.--Chris O'Reilly